TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.20×

NYY @ AZ

Chase Field · 8:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 3 mph cross 101°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

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5:10p

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6:10p

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7:10p

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8:10p

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9:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · +0 FIT

Best of game Ben Rice conv 27 · vs Pfaadt ⟷ Nolan Arenado conv 32 · vs Schlittler → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Brandon Pfaadt RHP · AZ

leak 93

1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ben Rice — C+ ●●●●○

2 Cody Bellinger — D ●●●●○

3 Aaron Judge — C+ ●●●○○

FADE Cam Schlittler RHP · NYY

leak 34

0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nolan Arenado — D ●●●●●

2 Corbin Carroll — C ●●●●○

3 Gabriel Moreno — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: Match 26.8% · 14D pace 27.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ COOL vs Pfaadt Edge — 0.261 · 92.0 · 10.3% 27.3% 26.8% F B O C+ 61

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Schlittler Edge — 0.227 · 91.8 · 9.7% 30.0% 20.8% F B O C 51

· NYY Aaron Judge COOL vs Pfaadt — 0.270 · 94.0 · 12.6% 12.5% 23.8% F B O C+ 60

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· AZ Nolan Arenado HOT vs Schlittler — 0.207 · 85.0 · 7.0% 41.7% 23.2% F B O D 47

· NYY Cody Bellinger vs Pfaadt Edge — 0.168 · 89.2 · 7.1% 33.3% 17.7% F B O D 44

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Schlittler — 0.178 · 89.2 · 7.8% 27.3% 17.1% F B O D 42

· NYY Austin Wells vs Pfaadt Edge — 0.134 · 89.4 · 7.1% 18.2% 14.6% F B O D 39

· AZ Tim Tawa COOL vs Schlittler — 0.157 · 90.5 · 8.9% 10.0% 10.5% F B O D 38

· AZ Ketel Marte vs Schlittler Edge — 0.191 · 90.3 · 8.6% 8.3% 10.0% F B O D 42

· AZ Jose Fernandez COOL vs Schlittler — 0.092 · 88.0 · 5.5% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 27

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Pfaadt — 0.205 · 86.7 · 8.9% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 46

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Pfaadt — 0.140 · 83.9 · 5.8% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 31

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Pfaadt Edge — 0.136 · 90.5 · 8.2% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 38

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Schlittler — 0.105 · 86.6 · 7.1% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 29

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Schlittler Edge — 0.110 · 87.3 · 4.5% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 26

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Schlittler Edge — 0.127 · 87.4 · 5.0% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Brandon Pfaadt — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Cam Schlittler — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Judge Bellinger Wells Carroll Arenado Moreno

Legend

attack side — vs Pfaadt fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Ben Rice — · 61

Corbin Carroll — · 51

Nolan Arenado — · 47

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 5:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.92× Wind 3 mph cross 101°F retractable

↑

3 mph · cross

101°F

5:10p · peak

↑

2 mph · cross

98°F

6:10p

↑

1 mph · cross

96°F

7:10p

↑

1 mph · cross

93°F

8:10p

↑

1 mph · slight_out

91°F

9:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.20× 101°F, wind 3 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brandon Pfaadt · RHP 1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 61 C+ — COOL 16 0.261 92.0 10.3% 30.4%vs RHP 393 24.3% 27.3% 26.8% 28

2 Aaron Judge 60 C+ — COOL 21 0.270 94.0 12.6% 32.4%vs RHP 404 21.7% 12.5% 23.8% 10

3 Paul Goldschmidt 46 D — COOL 87 0.205 86.7 8.9% 17.5%vs RHP 390 16.0% 0.0% 10.0% 9

4 Cody Bellinger 44 D — WARM 98 0.168 89.2 7.1% 13.8%vs RHP 377 11.5% 33.3% 17.7% 42

5 Austin Wells 39 D — · 141 0.134 89.4 7.1% 16.1%vs RHP 380 9.0% 18.2% 14.6% 18

6 Ryan Mcmahon 38 D — COOL 149 0.136 90.5 8.2% 17.2%vs RHP 387 10.0% 0.0% 8.9% 24

7 Jose Caballero 31 D — WARM 193 0.140 83.9 5.8% 23.3%vs RHP 384 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 15

vs Cam Schlittler · RHP 0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 51 C — WARM 59 0.227 91.8 9.7% 16.5%vs RHP 402 14.4% 30.0% 20.8% 23

2 Nolan Arenado 47 D — HOT 79 0.207 85.0 7.0% 22.7%vs RHP 389 16.8% 41.7% 23.2% 30

3 Gabriel Moreno 42 D — · 119 0.178 89.2 7.8% 16.7%vs RHP 399 12.4% 27.3% 17.1% 39

4 Ketel Marte 42 D — · 120 0.191 90.3 8.6% 14.0%vs RHP 408 14.2% 8.3% 10.0% 45

5 Tim Tawa 38 D — COOL 146 0.157 90.5 8.9% 23.3%vs RHP 399 9.3% 10.0% 10.5% 26

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 29 D — COOL 202 0.105 86.6 7.1% 9.7%vs RHP 415 3.4% 0.0% 7.3% 10

7 Ildemaro Vargas 28 D — COOL 205 0.127 87.4 5.0% 6.0%vs RHP 396 4.3% 0.0% 6.1% 25

8 Jose Fernandez 27 D — COOL 206 0.092 88.0 5.5% 21.4%vs RHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 3

9 Geraldo Perdomo 26 D — COOL 210 0.110 87.3 4.5% 9.2%vs RHP 383 5.8% 0.0% 6.4% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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