TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ COL

Neutral air · 1.01×

SEA @ COL

Coors Field · 8:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind 1 mph out 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

-6 ↑

6:10p

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7:10p

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8:10p

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9:10p

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10:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · -6 FIT

Best of game Randy Arozarena conv 19 · vs Quintana ⟷ Hunter Goodman conv 28 · vs Miller → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Jose Quintana LHP · COL

leak 99

1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.35 · leakiest side of this game

1 Randy Arozarena — C ●●●○○

2 J.P. Crawford — D ●●○○○

3 Dominic Canzone — C ●●○○○

FADE Bryce Miller RHP · SEA

leak 86

1.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.68 · stingy — thin edge

1 Hunter Goodman — C+ ●●●●○

2 Cole Carrigg — D ●●●○○

3 Kyle Karros — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: Match 34.3% · 14D pace 22.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Miller — 0.284 · 90.1 · 10.8% 22.2% 34.3% F B O C+ 68

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Quintana Edge — 0.198 · 90.8 · 8.0% 16.7% 22.1% F B O C 54

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Miller Edge — 0.242 · 89.5 · 8.7% 12.5% 23.5% F B O C 57

· SEA Dominic Canzone vs Quintana — 0.223 · 91.1 · 10.0% 8.3% 20.2% F B O C 57

· SEA Cal Raleigh COOL vs Quintana Edge — 0.189 · 90.0 · 11.0% 8.3% 12.1% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· COL Cole Carrigg vs Miller Edge — 0.198 · 87.9 · 6.5% 15.4% 22.9% F B O D 49

· COL Kyle Karros vs Miller — 0.165 · 89.4 · 8.1% 20.0% 16.6% F B O D 48

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Quintana — 0.126 · 87.8 · 7.1% 20.0% 10.3% F B O D 43

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Miller — 0.123 · 87.5 · 7.1% 10.0% 9.2% F B O D 40

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Quintana Edge — 0.154 · 90.4 · 8.6% 8.3% 9.0% F B O D 48

· COL Jake Mccarthy HOT vs Miller Edge — 0.190 · 85.6 · 6.6% 0.0% 12.5% F B O D 45

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Miller Edge — 0.154 · 84.1 · 6.1% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 40

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Quintana — 0.092 · 87.1 · 5.9% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 35

· SEA Weston Wilson COOL vs Quintana Edge — 0.112 · 85.3 · 5.7% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 39

· COL Troy Johnston COOL vs Miller Edge — 0.116 · 89.8 · 4.1% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Jose Quintana — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Bryce Miller — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Canzone Arozarena Crawford Goodman Moniak Carrigg Karros

Legend

attack side — vs Quintana fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Hunter Goodman — · 68

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 6:10p · roof open

Park 1.01× Wind 1 mph out 74°F open

-6

↑

5 mph · in

57°F

6:10p · peak

-6

↑

5 mph · in

57°F

7:10p

-6

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5 mph · in

57°F

8:10p

-6

↑

5 mph · in

57°F

9:10p

-6

↑

5 mph · in

57°F

10:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.01× 74°F, wind 1 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jose Quintana · LHP 1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.35 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 57 C — · 26 0.223 91.1 10.0% 26.3%vs LHP 403 14.8% 8.3% 20.2% 36

2 Cal Raleigh 55 C — COOL 34 0.189 90.0 11.0% 26.7%vs LHP 383 15.9% 8.3% 12.1% 28

3 Randy Arozarena 54 C — · 37 0.198 90.8 8.0% 30.3%vs LHP 387 15.5% 16.7% 22.1% 33

4 Julio Rodríguez 48 D — WARM 83 0.154 90.4 8.6% 19.1%vs LHP 404 14.5% 8.3% 9.0% 33

5 J.P. Crawford 43 D — COOL 126 0.126 87.8 7.1% 13.3%vs LHP 390 12.3% 20.0% 10.3% 40

6 Weston Wilson 39 D — COOL 172 0.112 85.3 5.7% 17.6%vs LHP 393 8.7% 0.0% 7.6% 20

7 Josh Naylor 35 D — COOL 199 0.092 87.1 5.9% 9.7%vs LHP 392 5.4% 0.0% 9.6% 41

vs Bryce Miller · RHP 1.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.68 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 68 C+ — COOL 5 0.284 90.1 10.8% 35.5%vs RHP 408 23.4% 22.2% 34.3% 24

2 Mickey Moniak 57 C — WARM 24 0.242 89.5 8.7% 22.4%vs RHP 416 16.2% 12.5% 23.5% 15

3 Cole Carrigg 49 D — WARM 66 0.198 87.9 6.5% 17.9%vs RHP 407 10.2% 15.4% 22.9% 32

4 Kyle Karros 48 D — WARM 78 0.165 89.4 8.1% 18.6%vs RHP 418 11.4% 20.0% 16.6% 28

5 Jake Mccarthy 45 D — HOT 100 0.190 85.6 6.6% 15.1%vs RHP 415 10.0% 0.0% 12.5% 43

6 Tj Rumfield 40 D — COOL 157 0.154 84.1 6.1% 12.1%vs RHP 412 10.0% 0.0% 9.7% 32

7 Ezequiel Tovar 40 D — COOL 158 0.123 87.5 7.1% 14.3%vs RHP 404 7.8% 10.0% 9.2% 19

8 Troy Johnston 33 D — COOL 211 0.116 89.8 4.1% 4.0%vs RHP 411 1.9% 0.0% 7.2% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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