TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ TB

Playable air · 1.06×

BOS @ TB

Tropicana Field · 4:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Willson Contreras conv 28 · vs Peralta ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 31 · vs Proxy → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Freddy Peralta RHP · NYM

leak 66

1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · leakiest side of this game

1 Willson Contreras — C+ ●●●●○

2 Jarren Duran — D ●●○○○

3 Wilyer Abreu — C ●●○○○

FADE BOS Bullpen Proxy · BOS

leak 36

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero — C+ ●●●●●

2 Richie Palacios — D ●●●●○

3 Jonathan Aranda — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: Match 29.5% · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Proxy — 0.253 · 92.8 · 13.2% 33.3% 29.5% F B O C+ 69

· — Willson Contreras vs Peralta — 0.242 · 89.8 · 9.1% 25.0% 32.0% F B O C+ 62

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Proxy — 0.159 · 91.2 · 9.8% 20.0% 16.2% F B O C 50

· — Wilyer Abreu vs Peralta Edge — 0.204 · 89.9 · 8.9% 9.1% 13.8% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· TB Richie Palacios HOT vs Proxy — 0.144 · 86.5 · 4.2% 37.5% 14.1% F B O D 41

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Proxy — 0.111 · 85.3 · 2.0% 20.0% 11.9% F B O D 33

· — Jarren Duran COOL vs Peralta Edge — 0.155 · 89.7 · 7.7% 12.5% 13.5% F B O D 48

· — Nick Sogard vs Peralta Edge — 0.146 · 87.1 · 5.9% 10.0% 9.3% F B O D 43

· — Caleb Durbin vs Peralta — 0.133 · 83.3 · 4.3% 9.1% 9.0% F B O D 38

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Proxy — 0.158 · 91.0 · 7.2% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 40

· — Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Peralta — 0.145 · 87.7 · 6.5% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 43

· TB Jonny Deluca COOL vs Proxy — 0.152 · 85.5 · 3.2% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 35

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Proxy — 0.074 · 85.5 · 1.9% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 26

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Proxy — 0.138 · 87.8 · 4.2% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 37

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Proxy — 0.051 · 83.5 · — 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 19

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for BOS Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Freddy Peralta — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Aranda Palacios Fortes Contreras Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Peralta fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Junior Caminero — · 69

Willson Contreras — · 62

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 4:10p · roof unknown

Park 1.06× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.06× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs BOS Bullpen Proxy 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 69 C+ — WARM 8 0.253 92.8 13.2% 28.7% 413 25.3% 33.3% 29.5% 34

2 Jonathan Aranda 50 C — · 83 0.159 91.2 9.8% 14.5% 391 12.8% 20.0% 16.2% 26

3 Richie Palacios 41 D — HOT 154 0.144 86.5 4.2% 11.9% 385 9.1% 37.5% 14.1% 20

4 Yandy Diaz 40 D — · 160 0.158 91.0 7.2% 17.6% 388 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 40

5 Cedric Mullins 37 D — COOL 177 0.138 87.8 4.2% 8.4% 387 11.1% 0.0% 7.6% 15

6 Jonny Deluca 35 D — COOL 192 0.152 85.5 3.2% 9.9% 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 22

7 Nick Fortes 33 D — COOL 201 0.111 85.3 2.0% 6.9% 390 5.1% 20.0% 11.9% 11

8 Taylor Walls 26 D — COOL 221 0.074 85.5 1.9% 2.0% 383 0.8% 0.0% 8.0% 4

9 Chandler Simpson 19 D — COOL 226 0.051 83.5 — 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 43

vs Freddy Peralta · RHP 1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 62 C+ — WARM 14 0.242 89.8 9.1% 31.7%vs RHP 405 19.4% 25.0% 32.0% 9

2 Wilyer Abreu 54 C — WARM 43 0.204 89.9 8.9% 14.9%vs RHP 406 15.4% 9.1% 13.8% 31

3 Jarren Duran 48 D — COOL 74 0.155 89.7 7.7% 26.5%vs RHP 401 13.7% 12.5% 13.5% 18

4 Andruw Monasterio 43 D — COOL 115 0.145 87.7 6.5% 2.3%vs RHP 390 10.0% 0.0% 9.5% 5

5 Nick Sogard 43 D — WARM 116 0.146 87.1 5.9% 11.1%vs RHP 381 12.2% 10.0% 9.3% 26

6 Caleb Durbin 38 D — WARM 148 0.133 83.3 4.3% 18.0%vs RHP 376 8.3% 9.1% 9.0% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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