TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ CWS

Playable air · 1.05×

DET @ CWS

Rate Field · 2:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Munetaka Murakami conv 32 · vs Jobe ⟷ Riley Greene conv 26 · vs Burke → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Jackson Jobe RHP · DET

leak 89

1.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.82 · leakiest side of this game

1 Munetaka Murakami — B ●●●●●

2 Colson Montgomery — C+ ●●●○○

3 Miguel Vargas — C+ ●●○○○

FADE Sean Burke RHP · CWS

leak 68

1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · stingy — thin edge

1 Riley Greene — C ●●●●○

2 Spencer Torkelson — C ●●●○○

3 Hao-Yu Lee — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: Match 36.6% · 14D pace 27.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Jobe Edge — 0.266 · 93.8 · 12.9% 27.3% 36.6% F B O B 71

· DET Riley Greene vs Burke Edge — 0.194 · 90.3 · 11.1% 30.8% 21.9% F B O C 57

· DET Spencer Torkelson vs Burke — 0.195 · 89.5 · 10.0% 22.2% 23.0% F B O C 55

· CWS Colson Montgomery vs Jobe Edge — 0.216 · 88.8 · 10.5% 9.1% 25.4% F B O C+ 61

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Jobe — 0.223 · 90.1 · 10.8% 16.7% 15.6% F B O C+ 61

· CWS Randal Grichuk COOL vs Jobe — 0.274 · 91.4 · 9.8% 0.0% 29.2% F B O C+ 60

· DET Dillon Dingler COOL vs Burke — 0.210 · 88.5 · 8.9% 11.1% 14.6% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· DET Hao-Yu Lee COOL vs Burke — 0.158 · 89.3 · 8.2% 22.2% 10.4% F B O D 48

· DET Colt Keith vs Burke Edge — 0.147 · 88.9 · 7.9% 10.0% 12.6% F B O D 43

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs Jobe — 0.131 · 87.3 · 6.1% 7.7% 10.9% F B O D 41

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle vs Burke Edge — 0.148 · 87.9 · 7.6% 0.0% 15.4% F B O D 43

· CWS Tristan Peters COOL vs Jobe Edge — 0.179 · 87.4 · 7.0% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 47

· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs Jobe Edge — 0.173 · 89.2 · 8.6% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 49

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Jobe Edge — 0.126 · 88.9 · 6.2% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 40

· CWS Sam Antonacci vs Jobe Edge — 0.122 · 87.3 · 6.7% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 40

· DET Gleyber Torres vs Burke — 0.108 · 86.4 · 7.2% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 37

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Burke Edge — 0.096 · 85.7 · 4.0% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Sean Burke — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Jackson Jobe — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Greene Torkelson Lee Murakami Montgomery Vargas Grichuk

Legend

attack side — vs Jobe fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Munetaka Murakami — · 71

Riley Greene — · 57

Spencer Torkelson — · 55

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 2:10p · roof unknown

Park 1.05× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.05× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sean Burke · RHP 1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Riley Greene 57 C — WARM 32 0.194 90.3 11.1% 17.2%vs RHP 399 13.5% 30.8% 21.9% 37

2 Spencer Torkelson 55 C — · 34 0.195 89.5 10.0% 26.6%vs RHP 391 15.4% 22.2% 23.0% 20

3 Dillon Dingler 53 C — COOL 48 0.210 88.5 8.9% 26.4%vs RHP 398 17.4% 11.1% 14.6% 26

4 Hao-Yu Lee 48 D — COOL 77 0.158 89.3 8.2% 20.0%vs RHP 400 17.8% 22.2% 10.4% 20

5 Kevin Mcgonigle 43 D — · 102 0.148 87.9 7.6% 11.3%vs RHP 393 18.2% 0.0% 15.4% 34

6 Colt Keith 43 D — WARM 109 0.147 88.9 7.9% 13.5%vs RHP 382 6.6% 10.0% 12.6% 15

7 Gleyber Torres 37 D — · 157 0.108 86.4 7.2% 13.3%vs RHP 393 7.9% 0.0% 7.8% 24

8 Zach Mckinstry 30 D — COOL 195 0.096 85.7 4.0% 5.5%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 20

vs Jackson Jobe · RHP 1.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.82 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 71 B — · 2 0.266 93.8 12.9% 36.2%vs RHP 402 18.6% 27.3% 36.6% 15

2 Colson Montgomery 61 C+ — · 15 0.216 88.8 10.5% 27.3%vs RHP 397 21.1% 9.1% 25.4% 14

3 Miguel Vargas 61 C+ — COOL 18 0.223 90.1 10.8% 17.0%vs RHP 392 20.0% 16.7% 15.6% 35

4 Randal Grichuk 60 C+ — COOL 19 0.274 91.4 9.8% 25.0%vs RHP 387 12.2% 0.0% 29.2% 26

5 Andrew Benintendi 49 D — WARM 69 0.173 89.2 8.6% 14.6%vs RHP 388 11.8% 0.0% 12.1% 21

6 Tristan Peters 47 D — COOL 81 0.179 87.4 7.0% 12.9%vs RHP 377 10.5% 0.0% 12.3% 27

7 Chase Meidroth 41 D — WARM 127 0.131 87.3 6.1% 12.7%vs RHP 382 7.5% 7.7% 10.9% 32

8 Braden Montgomery 40 D — · 135 0.126 88.9 6.2% 17.2%vs RHP 395 6.6% 0.0% 9.5% 22

9 Sam Antonacci 40 D — · 137 0.122 87.3 6.7% 10.7%vs RHP 390 7.1% 0.0% 8.7% 31

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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