TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ LAA

Suppressed air · 0.89×

MIN @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 9:38p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.81× Wind 4 mph out 78°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

6:38p

-2 ↑

7:38p

-3 ↑

8:38p

-4 ↑

9:38p

-4 ↑

10:38p

best window is early — 6:38p at -1

Best of game Zach Neto conv 20 · vs Ryan ⟷ Kody Clemens conv 14 · vs Detmers → edge: Zach Neto

ATTACK Joe Ryan RHP · MIN

leak 55

1.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · leakiest side of this game

1 Zach Neto — D ●●●○○

2 Josh Lowe — D ●●●○○

3 Mike Trout — D ●○○○○

FADE Reid Detmers LHP · LAA

leak 29

0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kody Clemens — D ●●○○○

2 Josh Bell — D ●●○○○

3 Brooks Lee — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Zach Neto: Match 17.1% · 14D pace 23.1% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· LAA Zach Neto ✶ vs Ryan — 0.199 · 89.7 · 10.6% 23.1% 17.1% F B O D 48

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Ryan Edge — 0.156 · 88.6 · 9.5% 20.0% 15.0% F B O D 40

· MIN Kody Clemens COOL vs Detmers — 0.227 · 92.1 · 9.3% 15.4% 13.1% F B O D 47

· MIN Josh Bell vs Detmers Edge — 0.167 · 89.7 · 8.6% 16.7% 9.6% F B O D 38

· LAA Mike Trout vs Ryan — 0.181 · 89.9 · 12.5% 7.7% 9.6% F B O D 45

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Detmers Edge — 0.178 · 88.1 · 5.7% 8.3% 7.8% F B O D 35

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Ryan — 0.143 · 87.7 · 8.2% 7.7% 7.3% F B O D 35

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Detmers Edge — 0.155 · 89.8 · 9.2% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 36

· LAA Wade Meckler COOL vs Ryan Edge — 0.087 · 86.9 · 5.4% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 25

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Detmers Edge — 0.096 · 89.4 · 7.0% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 25

· LAA Oswald Peraza vs Ryan — 0.112 · 87.4 · 7.8% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 30

· MIN Austin Martin COOL vs Detmers Edge — 0.088 · 86.9 · 4.8% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 22

· MIN Luke Keaschall COOL vs Detmers Edge — 0.108 · 85.4 · 5.0% 0.0% 5.2% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Reid Detmers — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Joe Ryan — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Clemens Bell Neto Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Ryan fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 6:38p · roof open

Park 0.81× Wind 4 mph out 78°F open

-1

↑

4 mph · out

78°F

6:38p · peak

-2

↑

3 mph · out

75°F

7:38p

-3

↑

3 mph · out

73°F

8:38p

-4

↑

2 mph · out

72°F

9:38p

-4

↑

2 mph · out

71°F

10:38p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.89× 78°F, wind 4 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Reid Detmers · LHP 0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 47 D — COOL 80 0.227 92.1 9.3% 18.5%vs LHP 390 17.8% 15.4% 13.1% 34

2 Josh Bell 38 D — · 147 0.167 89.7 8.6% 13.3%vs LHP 407 12.1% 16.7% 9.6% 34

3 Royce Lewis 36 D — COOL 165 0.155 89.8 9.2% 13.3%vs LHP 402 12.8% 0.0% 7.5% 28

4 Brooks Lee 35 D — WARM 169 0.178 88.1 5.7% 7.5%vs LHP 374 15.6% 8.3% 7.8% 34

5 Victor Caratini 25 D — COOL 212 0.096 89.4 7.0% 11.8%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 14

6 Luke Keaschall 24 D — COOL 219 0.108 85.4 5.0% 2.5%vs LHP 378 6.7% 0.0% 5.2% 40

7 Austin Martin 22 D — COOL 222 0.088 86.9 4.8% 7.1%vs LHP 394 2.8% 0.0% 5.7% 9

vs Joe Ryan · RHP 1.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto ✶ 48 D — · 70 0.199 89.7 10.6% 18.8%vs RHP 404 16.4% 23.1% 17.1% 32

2 Mike Trout 45 D — · 90 0.181 89.9 12.5% 21.9%vs RHP 409 12.9% 7.7% 9.6% 25

3 Josh Lowe 40 D — WARM 134 0.156 88.6 9.5% 20.0%vs RHP 393 10.3% 20.0% 15.0% 13

4 Vaughn Grissom 35 D — COOL 171 0.143 87.7 8.2% 19.6%vs RHP 388 9.2% 7.7% 7.3% 30

5 Oswald Peraza 30 D — WARM 200 0.112 87.4 7.8% 8.0%vs RHP 386 4.6% 0.0% 5.7% 8

6 Wade Meckler 25 D — COOL 213 0.087 86.9 5.4% 8.3%vs RHP 396 4.9% 0.0% 6.3% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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