TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ SD

Suppressed air · 0.88×

MIA @ SD

Petco Park · 8:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.88× Wind 6 mph cross 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

-4 ↑

5:40p

-5 ↑

6:40p

-5 ↑

7:40p

-5 ↑

8:40p

-5 ↑

9:40p

best window is early — 5:40p at -4

Best of game Manny Machado conv 26 · vs Pérez ⟷ Javier Sanoja conv 13 · vs Mize → edge: Manny Machado

ATTACK Eury Pérez RHP · MIA

leak 92

1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.01 · leakiest side of this game

1 Manny Machado — C ●●●●○

2 Jackson Merrill — C ●●●○○

3 Ty France — D ●●○○○

FADE Casey Mize RHP · DET

leak 9

1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.48 · stingy — thin edge

1 Javier Sanoja — D ●●○○○

2 Jakob Marsee — D ●●○○○

3 Kyle Stowers — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Manny Machado: Match 22.1% · 14D pace 30.8% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Manny Machado ✶ vs Pérez — 0.191 · 90.3 · 9.8% 30.8% 22.1% F B O C 51

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Pérez Edge — 0.188 · 91.5 · 11.1% 23.1% 14.9% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· — Javier Sanoja HOT vs Mize — 0.157 · 87.0 · 4.7% 16.7% 8.4% F B O D 33

· — Jakob Marsee COOL vs Mize Edge — 0.130 · 87.4 · 5.5% 16.7% 6.9% F B O D 32

· SD Ty France vs Pérez — 0.213 · 91.9 · 9.7% 9.1% 14.4% F B O D 48

· — Kyle Stowers vs Mize Edge — 0.214 · 92.4 · 10.2% 9.1% 11.1% F B O D 47

· SD Fernando Tatis vs Pérez — 0.176 · 92.9 · 11.2% 0.0% 18.3% F B O D 43

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Pérez — 0.110 · 89.5 · 7.6% 7.7% 8.0% F B O D 33

· SD Jake Cronenworth vs Pérez Edge — 0.080 · 87.0 · 5.8% 8.3% 6.1% F B O D 27

· — Heriberto Hernández COOL vs Mize — 0.218 · 91.1 · 10.4% 0.0% 13.9% F B O D 43

· SD Freddy Fermin vs Pérez — 0.112 · 87.7 · 6.3% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 30

· — Otto Lopez COOL vs Mize — 0.132 · 89.1 · 7.1% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 32

· — Xavier Edwards COOL vs Mize Edge — 0.092 · 86.8 · 5.2% 0.0% 5.1% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Eury Pérez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Casey Mize — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Machado Merrill

Legend

attack side — vs Pérez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Manny Machado — · 51

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 5:40p · roof open

Park 0.88× Wind 6 mph cross 77°F open

-4

↑

6 mph · cross

77°F

5:40p · peak

-5

↑

5 mph · cross

75°F

6:40p

-5

↑

4 mph · cross

73°F

7:40p

-5

↑

3 mph · cross

71°F

8:40p

-5

↑

3 mph · cross

71°F

9:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.88× 77°F, wind 6 mph W (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Eury Pérez · RHP 1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.01 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado ✶ 51 C — WARM 55 0.191 90.3 9.8% 26.1%vs RHP 397 17.7% 30.8% 22.1% 39

2 Jackson Merrill 50 C — WARM 64 0.188 91.5 11.1% 20.2%vs RHP 410 16.4% 23.1% 14.9% 42

3 Ty France 48 D — · 76 0.213 91.9 9.7% 24.6%vs RHP 390 15.6% 9.1% 14.4% 29

4 Fernando Tatis 43 D — · 101 0.176 92.9 11.2% 16.9%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 18.3% 39

5 Xander Bogaerts 33 D — WARM 179 0.110 89.5 7.6% 16.2%vs RHP 404 7.6% 7.7% 8.0% 34

6 Freddy Fermin 30 D — WARM 196 0.112 87.7 6.3% 6.2%vs RHP 382 1.9% 0.0% 8.6% 7

7 Jake Cronenworth 27 D — WARM 208 0.080 87.0 5.8% 8.3%vs RHP 382 2.9% 8.3% 6.1% 36

vs Casey Mize · RHP 1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.48 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 47 D — · 82 0.214 92.4 10.2% 22.1%vs RHP 400 13.9% 9.1% 11.1% 25

2 Heriberto Hernández 43 D — COOL 103 0.218 91.1 10.4% 24.6%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% 34

3 Javier Sanoja 33 D — HOT 181 0.157 87.0 4.7% 11.1%vs RHP 383 8.3% 16.7% 8.4% 42

4 Jakob Marsee 32 D — COOL 189 0.130 87.4 5.5% 13.5%vs RHP 386 8.9% 16.7% 6.9% 36

5 Otto Lopez 32 D — COOL 190 0.132 89.1 7.1% 8.2%vs RHP 402 6.0% 0.0% 6.8% 35

6 Xavier Edwards 25 D — COOL 215 0.092 86.8 5.2% 2.6%vs RHP 396 3.6% 0.0% 5.1% 8

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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