TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ NYM

Suppressed air · 0.97×

PHI @ NYM

Citi Field · 4:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.97× Wind 4 mph cross 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

4:10p

+1 ↑

5:10p

+1 ↑

6:10p

+2 ↑

7:10p

+3 ↑

8:10p

conditions build late — the 8:10p window peaks +3

Best of game Kyle Schwarber conv 36 · vs Scott ⟷ Francisco Lindor conv 23 · vs Painter → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Christian Scott RHP · NYM

leak 86

1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Schwarber — C+ ●●●●●

2 Bryce Harper — C ●●○○○

3 Trea Turner — D ●●○○○

FADE Andrew Painter RHP · PHI

leak 83

1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.42 · stingy — thin edge

1 Francisco Lindor — C ●●●●○

2 Juan Soto — C+ ●●●○○

3 Carson Benge — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 34.5% · 14D pace 38.5% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ vs Scott Edge — 0.279 · 92.4 · 10.5% 38.5% 34.5% F B O C+ 66

· NYM Francisco Lindor COOL vs Painter Edge — 0.206 · 91.1 · 8.5% 23.1% 23.9% F B O C 54

· NYM Juan Soto COOL vs Painter Edge — 0.245 · 92.6 · 10.4% 23.1% 18.8% F B O C+ 61

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs Scott Edge — 0.223 · 90.3 · 8.5% 7.7% 17.7% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· NYM Carson Benge vs Painter Edge — 0.141 · 88.8 · 7.7% 15.4% 10.9% F B O D 43

· NYM Brett Baty vs Painter Edge — 0.133 · 90.3 · 8.9% 10.0% 13.9% F B O D 43

· PHI Trea Turner COOL vs Scott — 0.142 · 88.3 · 6.6% 15.4% 7.4% F B O D 39

· PHI Justin Crawford vs Scott Edge — 0.090 · 87.2 · 3.5% 11.1% 7.0% F B O D 28

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Painter — 0.127 · 89.6 · 7.2% 7.7% 8.2% F B O D 40

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Painter Edge — 0.125 · 89.4 · 7.5% 0.0% 14.0% F B O D 37

· NYM Francisco Alvarez COOL vs Painter — 0.163 · 90.2 · 11.1% 0.0% 12.5% F B O D 45

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Scott Edge — 0.147 · 89.1 · 7.3% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 39

· NYM Marcus Semien vs Painter — 0.124 · 86.7 · 6.9% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 38

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Scott Edge — 0.140 · 89.2 · 6.3% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 36

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Scott — 0.132 · 89.7 · 6.2% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 33

· PHI Alec Bohm COOL vs Scott — 0.139 · 90.5 · 6.3% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Christian Scott — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Andrew Painter — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Soto Lindor Benge

Legend

attack side — vs Scott fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Kyle Schwarber — · 66

Francisco Lindor — · 54

Juan Soto — · 61

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 4:10p · roof open

Park 0.97× Wind 4 mph cross 71°F open

-1

↑

4 mph · cross

70°F

4:10p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

71°F

5:10p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

70°F

6:10p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

69°F

7:10p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

68°F

8:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.97× 71°F, wind 4 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Christian Scott · RHP 1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 66 C+ — · 6 0.279 92.4 10.5% 41.1%vs RHP 402 23.6% 38.5% 34.5% 33

2 Bryce Harper 52 C — COOL 53 0.223 90.3 8.5% 35.3%vs RHP 403 17.4% 7.7% 17.7% 31

3 Brandon Marsh 39 D — COOL 143 0.147 89.1 7.3% 16.9%vs RHP 391 10.4% 0.0% 9.6% 22

4 Trea Turner 39 D — COOL 144 0.142 88.3 6.6% 18.8%vs RHP 390 12.4% 15.4% 7.4% 40

5 Alec Bohm 37 D — COOL 159 0.139 90.5 6.3% 12.3%vs RHP 394 9.9% 0.0% 6.6% 32

6 Bryson Stott 36 D — COOL 163 0.140 89.2 6.3% 8.9%vs RHP 393 7.0% 0.0% 8.2% 32

7 J.T. Realmuto 33 D — WARM 178 0.132 89.7 6.2% 18.0%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 21

8 Justin Crawford 28 D — WARM 203 0.090 87.2 3.5% 4.0%vs RHP 395 2.7% 11.1% 7.0% 26

vs Andrew Painter · RHP 1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.42 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto 61 C+ — COOL 17 0.245 92.6 10.4% 31.2%vs RHP 401 21.0% 23.1% 18.8% 40

2 Francisco Lindor 54 C — COOL 41 0.206 91.1 8.5% 21.7%vs RHP 390 16.1% 23.1% 23.9% 37

3 Francisco Alvarez 45 D — COOL 88 0.163 90.2 11.1% 28.6%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 18

4 Brett Baty 43 D — WARM 108 0.133 90.3 8.9% 13.5%vs RHP 396 6.9% 10.0% 13.9% 22

5 Carson Benge 43 D — WARM 112 0.141 88.8 7.7% 14.8%vs RHP 393 10.9% 15.4% 10.9% 33

6 Bo Bichette 40 D — · 138 0.127 89.6 7.2% 11.6%vs RHP 388 10.1% 7.7% 8.2% 40

7 Marcus Semien 38 D — WARM 151 0.124 86.7 6.9% 12.8%vs RHP 391 9.5% 0.0% 8.3% 37

8 A.J. Ewing 37 D — · 155 0.125 89.4 7.5% 15.1%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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