TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ CIN

Great American Ball Park is live · 1.28×

CHC @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 6:40p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 4 mph cross 88°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

6:40p

-2 ↑

7:40p

-2 ↑

8:40p

-2 ↑

9:40p

-2 ↑

10:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · -2 FIT

Best of game Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 36 · vs Lodolo ⟷ Elly De La Cruz conv 45 · vs Boyd → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Nick Lodolo LHP · CIN

leak 97

1.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.10 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong — B ●●●●●

2 Alex Bregman — C ●●●○○

3 Michael Busch — C ●●○○○

FADE Matthew Boyd LHP · CHC

leak 84

1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · stingy — thin edge

1 Elly De La Cruz — B ●●●●●

2 Eugenio Suarez — C ●●○○○

3 Sal Stewart — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 39.1% · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Elly De La Cruz HOT vs Boyd Edge — 0.232 · 94.8 · 11.6% 53.8% 35.4% F B O B 70

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Lodolo — 0.299 · 90.8 · 11.3% 33.3% 39.1% F B O B 77

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Lodolo Edge — 0.193 · 88.1 · 7.4% 16.7% 18.3% F B O C 55

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Boyd Edge — 0.218 · 88.5 · 10.0% 0.0% 30.0% F B O C 53

· CIN Sal Stewart COOL vs Boyd Edge — 0.206 · 90.2 · 10.2% 7.7% 16.7% F B O C 57

· CHC Michael Busch vs Lodolo — 0.154 · 88.3 · 9.3% 9.1% 12.0% F B O C 53

· CHC Dansby Swanson vs Lodolo — 0.187 · 89.5 · 8.5% 0.0% 18.9% F B O C 55

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Boyd Edge — 0.169 · 91.1 · 10.2% 8.3% 10.5% F B O C 51

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Lodolo Edge — 0.203 · 88.6 · 9.9% 0.0% 17.9% F B O C 58

· CHC Tyrone Taylor vs Lodolo Edge — 0.229 · 86.8 · 9.3% 0.0% 17.8% F B O C 57

· CHC Matt Shaw COOL vs Lodolo Edge — 0.187 · 86.6 · 6.7% 0.0% 13.6% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· CIN Juan Brito vs Boyd Edge — 0.138 · 85.3 · 7.2% 14.3% 9.3% F B O D 45

· CIN Dane Myers vs Boyd Edge — 0.115 · 89.5 · 6.1% 11.1% 9.1% F B O D 41

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Boyd Edge — 0.153 · 88.3 · 8.9% 0.0% 13.1% F B O D 44

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Boyd — 0.198 · 88.5 · 8.9% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 48

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Lodolo Edge — 0.125 · 86.9 · 7.1% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 45

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Lodolo Edge — 0.090 · 85.9 · 3.8% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 36

· CIN Ke'Bryan Hayes COOL vs Boyd Edge — 0.089 · 90.6 · 7.8% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Nick Lodolo — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Matthew Boyd — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Bregman Cruz Suarez

Legend

attack side — vs Lodolo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Elly De La Cruz — · 70

Pete Crow-Armstrong — · 77

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 4 mph cross 88°F open

-2

↑

5 mph · in

75°F

6:40p · peak

-2

↑

5 mph · in

75°F

7:40p

-2

↑

5 mph · in

75°F

8:40p

-2

↑

5 mph · in

75°F

9:40p

-2

↑

5 mph · in

75°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.28× 88°F, wind 4 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nick Lodolo · LHP 1.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.10 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 77 B — WARM 1 0.299 90.8 11.3% 31.4%vs LHP 396 23.4% 33.3% 39.1% 35

2 Seiya Suzuki 58 C — WARM 21 0.203 88.6 9.9% 30.8%vs LHP 406 15.4% 0.0% 17.9% 28

3 Tyrone Taylor 57 C — · 27 0.229 86.8 9.3% 19.4%vs LHP 403 14.0% 0.0% 17.8% 13

4 Dansby Swanson 55 C — · 30 0.187 89.5 8.5% 26.1%vs LHP 405 12.1% 0.0% 18.9% 0

5 Alex Bregman 55 C — · 31 0.193 88.1 7.4% 18.9%vs LHP 389 13.2% 16.7% 18.3% 33

6 Michael Busch 53 C — · 48 0.154 88.3 9.3% 14.6%vs LHP 403 13.1% 9.1% 12.0% 26

7 Matt Shaw 50 C — COOL 64 0.187 86.6 6.7% 14.3%vs LHP 376 10.4% 0.0% 13.6% 8

8 Carson Kelly 45 D — COOL 105 0.125 86.9 7.1% 21.4%vs LHP 403 8.2% 0.0% 10.5% 23

9 Nico Hoerner 36 D — WARM 193 0.090 85.9 3.8% 8.6%vs LHP 383 5.3% 0.0% 8.8% 42

vs Matthew Boyd · LHP 1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz 70 B — HOT 4 0.232 94.8 11.6% 40.0%vs LHP 404 18.7% 53.8% 35.4% 29

2 Sal Stewart 57 C — COOL 28 0.206 90.2 10.2% 27.6%vs LHP 397 17.3% 7.7% 16.7% 32

3 Eugenio Suarez 53 C — WARM 41 0.218 88.5 10.0% 28.6%vs LHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 30.0% 23

4 Tyler Stephenson 51 C — · 59 0.169 91.1 10.2% 7.7%vs LHP 392 9.8% 8.3% 10.5% 27

5 Jj Bleday 48 D — COOL 72 0.198 88.5 8.9% 19.2%vs LHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 24

6 Juan Brito 45 D — WARM 106 0.138 85.3 7.2% 12.5%vs LHP 385 13.3% 14.3% 9.3% 27

7 Matt Mclain 44 D — COOL 107 0.153 88.3 8.9% 22.2%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 18

8 Dane Myers 41 D — WARM 150 0.115 89.5 6.1% 14.3%vs LHP 383 7.1% 11.1% 9.1% 22

9 Ke'Bryan Hayes 41 D — COOL 151 0.089 90.6 7.8% 10.0%vs LHP 387 9.3% 0.0% 8.5% 11

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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