TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ PIT

Suppressed air · 0.92×

KC @ PIT

PNC Park · 6:40p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 4 mph in 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

6:40p

+3 ↑

7:40p

+3 ↑

8:40p

+3 ↑

9:40p

+3 ↑

10:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · +3 FIT

Best of game John Rave conv 24 · vs Chandler ⟷ Brandon Lowe conv 28 · vs Cameron → edge: Brandon Lowe

ATTACK Bubba Chandler RHP · PIT

leak 66

0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.47 · leakiest side of this game

1 John Rave — D ●●●●○

2 Vinnie Pasquantino — D ●●●○○

3 Carter Jensen — C ●●●○○

FADE Noah Cameron LHP · KC

leak 62

0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.19 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Lowe — C ●●●●○

2 Rafael Flores Jr. — C ●●●○○

3 Oneil Cruz — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Brandon Lowe: Match 22.3% · 14D pace 33.3% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Brandon Lowe ✶ vs Cameron — 0.225 · 91.0 · 9.4% 33.3% 22.3% F B O C 54

· PIT Rafael Flores Jr. vs Cameron Edge — 0.244 · 90.5 · 10.2% 22.2% 22.6% F B O C 51

· KC Carter Jensen vs Chandler Edge — 0.219 · 91.3 · 8.8% 20.0% 20.4% F B O C 52

· PIT Oneil Cruz COOL vs Cameron — 0.205 · 94.6 · 11.1% 16.7% 21.4% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· KC John Rave COOL vs Chandler Edge — 0.229 · 88.3 · 8.1% 20.0% 27.3% F B O D 48

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino vs Chandler Edge — 0.149 · 89.9 · 7.5% 30.0% 11.5% F B O D 42

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn COOL vs Cameron — 0.183 · 89.3 · 7.2% 20.0% 15.1% F B O D 43

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Cameron Edge — 0.162 · 91.0 · 9.3% 16.7% 11.4% F B O D 43

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Chandler Edge — 0.159 · 89.5 · 6.0% 18.2% 8.4% F B O D 39

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Chandler Edge — 0.206 · 93.1 · 9.4% 0.0% 17.1% F B O D 49

· KC Bobby Witt Jr. vs Chandler — 0.165 · 92.3 · 8.7% 8.3% 8.1% F B O D 44

· KC Kyle Isbel COOL vs Chandler Edge — 0.106 · 88.2 · 4.3% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 30

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Chandler Edge — 0.113 · 88.1 · 5.7% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 31

· KC Nick Loftin COOL vs Chandler — 0.142 · 86.8 · 5.2% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 34

· PIT Konnor Griffin COOL vs Cameron Edge — 0.123 · 87.5 · 7.3% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 33

· PIT Jake Mangum HOT vs Cameron Edge — 0.085 · 85.7 · 4.0% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 25

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Cameron Edge — 0.087 · 86.3 · 4.8% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 26

· PIT Ronny Simon COOL vs Cameron Edge — 0.050 · 86.7 · 4.6% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Bubba Chandler — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Noah Cameron — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Jensen Rave Pasquantino Massey Lowe Cruz Jr. O'Hearn Reynolds

Legend

attack side — vs Chandler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Brandon Lowe — · 54

Rafael Flores Jr. — · 51

Carter Jensen — · 52

John Rave — · 48

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.92× Wind 4 mph in 74°F open

↑

7 mph · out

70°F

6:40p · peak

↑

7 mph · out

70°F

7:40p

↑

7 mph · out

70°F

8:40p

↑

7 mph · out

70°F

9:40p

↑

7 mph · out

70°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.92× 74°F, wind 4 mph ESE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bubba Chandler · RHP 0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.47 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Carter Jensen 52 C — WARM 49 0.219 91.3 8.8% 19.6%vs RHP 399 17.1% 20.0% 20.4% 26

2 Jac Caglianone 49 D — COOL 68 0.206 93.1 9.4% 29.1%vs RHP 416 14.1% 0.0% 17.1% 3

3 John Rave 48 D — COOL 74 0.229 88.3 8.1% 35.7%vs RHP 395 14.3% 20.0% 27.3% 21

4 Bobby Witt Jr. 44 D — · 113 0.165 92.3 8.7% 15.4%vs RHP 403 14.6% 8.3% 8.1% 30

5 Vinnie Pasquantino 42 D — WARM 140 0.149 89.9 7.5% 13.7%vs RHP 395 12.7% 30.0% 11.5% 29

6 Michael Massey 39 D — COOL 169 0.159 89.5 6.0% 10.5%vs RHP 395 8.6% 18.2% 8.4% 32

7 Nick Loftin 34 D — COOL 210 0.142 86.8 5.2% 10.9%vs RHP 397 8.4% 0.0% 6.5% 24

8 Isaac Collins 31 D — COOL 223 0.113 88.1 5.7% 7.3%vs RHP 394 4.8% 0.0% 6.6% 20

9 Kyle Isbel 30 D — COOL 225 0.106 88.2 4.3% 13.9%vs RHP 388 5.9% 0.0% 7.3% 21

vs Noah Cameron · LHP 0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.19 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe ✶ 54 C — · 36 0.225 91.0 9.4% 18.9%vs LHP 390 18.4% 33.3% 22.3% 23

2 Oneil Cruz 53 C — COOL 44 0.205 94.6 11.1% 40.0%vs LHP 413 22.0% 16.7% 21.4% 28

3 Rafael Flores Jr. 51 C — · 52 0.244 90.5 10.2% 29.4%vs LHP 407 21.7% 22.2% 22.6% 28

4 Ryan O'Hearn 43 D — COOL 118 0.183 89.3 7.2% 16.7%vs LHP 385 13.8% 20.0% 15.1% 14

5 Bryan Reynolds 43 D — WARM 123 0.162 91.0 9.3% 16.7%vs LHP 407 10.7% 16.7% 11.4% 32

6 Konnor Griffin 33 D — COOL 213 0.123 87.5 7.3% 8.3%vs LHP 401 5.2% 0.0% 6.5% 36

7 Ronny Simon 31 D — COOL 224 0.050 86.7 4.6% 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 8

8 Nick Gonzales 26 D — WARM 237 0.087 86.3 4.8% 3.0%vs LHP 397 5.7% 0.0% 5.9% 24

9 Jake Mangum 25 D — HOT 241 0.085 85.7 4.0% 5.3%vs LHP 393 3.9% 0.0% 6.1% 28

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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