TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.16×

SF @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 9:10p · 10 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 4 mph out 78°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

6:10p

+5 ↑

7:10p

+4 ↑

8:10p

+4 ↑

9:10p

+3 ↑

10:10p

best window is early — 6:10p at +7

Best of game Bryce Eldridge conv 21 · vs Skubal ⟷ Max Muncy conv 28 · vs Proxy → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Tarik Skubal LHP · DET

leak 99

0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · leakiest side of this game

1 Bryce Eldridge — C ●●●○○

2 Drew Gilbert — D ●●○○○

3 Jung Hoo Lee — D ●○○○○

FADE SF Bullpen Proxy · SF

leak 38

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Max Muncy — C+ ●●●●○

2 Kyle Tucker — D ●●●●○

3 Mookie Betts — C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: Match 21.8% · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Max Muncy ✶ COOL vs Proxy — 0.238 · 90.3 · 12.8% 33.3% 21.8% F B O C+ 67

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Proxy — 0.180 · 90.3 · 7.7% 33.3% 18.1% F B O C 53

· — Bryce Eldridge vs Skubal — 0.192 · 92.7 · 8.9% 16.7% 24.5% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Proxy — 0.155 · 88.9 · 6.5% 38.5% 14.8% F B O D 48

· — Drew Gilbert vs Skubal — 0.154 · 86.6 · 6.3% 11.1% 20.0% F B O D 41

· LAD Alex Freeland vs Proxy — 0.091 · 89.6 · 6.2% 16.7% 7.3% F B O D 38

· — Jung Hoo Lee COOL vs Skubal — 0.122 · 87.6 · 4.0% 10.0% 9.3% F B O D 33

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Proxy — 0.162 · 90.4 · 10.8% 0.0% 16.7% F B O D 47

· LAD Tommy Edman COOL vs Proxy — 0.125 · 87.2 · 4.9% 8.3% 7.3% F B O D 38

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Proxy — 0.150 · 89.4 · 8.1% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 45

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for SF Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Tarik Skubal — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Muncy Betts Tucker Eldridge Gilbert

Legend

attack side — vs Skubal fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Max Muncy — · 67

Mookie Betts — · 53

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 6:10p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 4 mph out 78°F open

↑

4 mph · out

78°F

6:10p · peak

↑

3 mph · out

76°F

7:10p

↑

2 mph · out

73°F

8:10p

↑

2 mph · out

72°F

9:10p

↑

2 mph · slight_out

71°F

10:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.16× 78°F, wind 4 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs SF Bullpen Proxy 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy ✶ 67 C+ — COOL 10 0.238 90.3 12.8% 21.4% 410 22.2% 33.3% 21.8% 44

2 Mookie Betts 53 C — WARM 65 0.180 90.3 7.7% 13.0% 389 13.6% 33.3% 18.1% 35

3 Kyle Tucker 48 D — WARM 97 0.155 88.9 6.5% 9.5% 392 10.4% 38.5% 14.8% 36

4 Teoscar Hernandez 47 D — WARM 100 0.162 90.4 10.8% 14.6% 394 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 26

5 Freddie Freeman 45 D — COOL 124 0.150 89.4 8.1% 12.1% 399 9.4% 0.0% 8.8% 26

6 Tommy Edman 38 D — COOL 172 0.125 87.2 4.9% 9.0% 396 7.7% 8.3% 7.3% 32

7 Alex Freeland 38 D — · 173 0.091 89.6 6.2% 8.3% 366 3.8% 16.7% 7.3% 22

vs Tarik Skubal · LHP 0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · 3 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Bryce Eldridge 52 C — · 50 0.192 92.7 8.9% 26.1%vs LHP 402 17.9% 16.7% 24.5% 29

2 Drew Gilbert 41 D — WARM 125 0.154 86.6 6.3% 12.2% 394 7.1% 11.1% 20.0% 14

3 Jung Hoo Lee 33 D — COOL 186 0.122 87.6 4.0% 7.1%vs LHP 382 5.8% 10.0% 9.3% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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