TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.48×

ATL @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 7:10p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.14× Wind 8 mph out 89°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+12 ↑

6:10p

+12 ↑

7:10p

+12 ↑

8:10p

+10 ↑

9:10p

+9 ↑

10:10p

best window is early — 6:10p at +12

Best of game Matt Olson conv 23 · vs Wesneski ⟷ Cam Smith conv 26 · vs Holmes → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Hayden Wesneski RHP · HOU

leak 79

0.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.31 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson — C+ ●●●●○

2 Austin Riley — D ●●○○○

3 Drake Baldwin — C ●●○○○

FADE Grant Holmes RHP · ATL

leak 77

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · stingy — thin edge

1 Cam Smith — C+ ●●●●○

2 Isaac Paredes — C ●●●●○

3 Jeremy Peña — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: Match 23.9% · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Holmes — 0.182 · 88.8 · 9.7% 27.3% 24.2% F B O C+ 60

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Wesneski Edge — 0.253 · 92.4 · 9.5% 23.1% 23.9% F B O C+ 66

· HOU Isaac Paredes vs Holmes — 0.171 · 86.1 · 6.3% 25.0% 21.6% F B O C 53

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Holmes — 0.198 · 88.5 · 7.6% 16.7% 28.8% F B O C 58

· HOU Yordan Alvarez vs Holmes Edge — 0.288 · 94.3 · 11.8% 0.0% 33.7% F B O C+ 68

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Wesneski Edge — 0.174 · 91.5 · 8.8% 15.4% 14.8% F B O C 54

· HOU Taylor Trammell HOT vs Holmes Edge — 0.160 · 88.5 · 10.4% 12.5% 16.5% F B O C 55

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Holmes — 0.159 · 89.0 · 7.3% 11.1% 14.0% F B O C 51

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Holmes — 0.190 · 88.8 · 8.8% 9.1% 15.2% F B O C 57

· ATL Ronald Acuna vs Wesneski — 0.193 · 90.0 · 8.8% 0.0% 22.3% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· ATL Austin Riley vs Wesneski — 0.141 · 91.3 · 8.6% 15.4% 15.2% F B O D 49

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Wesneski Edge — 0.163 · 87.2 · 5.0% 8.3% 11.5% F B O D 45

· ATL Michael Harris COOL vs Wesneski Edge — 0.193 · 90.3 · 7.8% 0.0% 15.7% F B O D 48

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Holmes — 0.118 · 85.9 · 4.2% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 39

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Wesneski Edge — 0.121 · 87.7 · 5.8% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 42

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Wesneski Edge — 0.149 · 90.2 · 6.5% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 45

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Holmes — 0.150 · 85.4 · 6.1% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 43

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Wesneski — 0.121 · 86.5 · 4.7% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Hayden Wesneski — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Grant Holmes — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Baldwin Riley Alvarez Smith Peña Trammell Paredes

Legend

attack side — vs Wesneski fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Cam Smith — · 60

Matt Olson — · 66

Isaac Paredes — · 53

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 6:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.14× Wind 8 mph out 89°F retractable

+12

↑

8 mph · out

89°F

6:10p · peak

+12

↑

8 mph · out

87°F

7:10p

+12

↑

7 mph · out

84°F

8:10p

+10

↑

5 mph · out

82°F

9:10p

↑

4 mph · out

79°F

10:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.48× 89°F, wind 8 mph SE (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Hayden Wesneski · RHP 0.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.31 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 66 C+ — · 7 0.253 92.4 9.5% 27.9%vs RHP 406 23.2% 23.1% 23.9% 35

2 Drake Baldwin 54 C — COOL 42 0.174 91.5 8.8% 22.7%vs RHP 401 15.7% 15.4% 14.8% 38

3 Ronald Acuna 50 C — · 62 0.193 90.0 8.8% 24.5%vs RHP 401 0.0% 0.0% 22.3% 40

4 Austin Riley 49 D — WARM 68 0.141 91.3 8.6% 18.5%vs RHP 410 9.2% 15.4% 15.2% 23

5 Michael Harris 48 D — COOL 73 0.193 90.3 7.8% 24.3%vs RHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 39

6 Ozzie Albies 45 D — WARM 92 0.163 87.2 5.0% 13.2%vs RHP 388 13.1% 8.3% 11.5% 37

7 Mike Yastrzemski 45 D — COOL 93 0.149 90.2 6.5% 14.9%vs RHP 391 7.2% 0.0% 11.5% 19

8 Dominic Smith 42 D — COOL 121 0.121 87.7 5.8% 14.0%vs RHP 392 7.8% 0.0% 11.7% 4

9 Mauricio Dubon 36 D — COOL 161 0.121 86.5 4.7% 9.1%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 40

vs Grant Holmes · RHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 68 C+ — · 4 0.288 94.3 11.8% 25.4%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 33.7% 23

2 Cam Smith 60 C+ — COOL 20 0.182 88.8 9.7% 21.7%vs RHP 410 13.5% 27.3% 24.2% 25

3 Jeremy Peña 58 C — · 24 0.198 88.5 7.6% 30.0%vs RHP 389 16.1% 16.7% 28.8% 30

4 Christian Walker 57 C — COOL 31 0.190 88.8 8.8% 23.0%vs RHP 393 16.2% 9.1% 15.2% 27

5 Taylor Trammell 55 C — HOT 36 0.160 88.5 10.4% 19.5%vs RHP 406 12.0% 12.5% 16.5% 15

6 Isaac Paredes 53 C — · 46 0.171 86.1 6.3% 17.3%vs RHP 377 12.9% 25.0% 21.6% 31

7 Yainer Diaz 51 C — WARM 57 0.159 89.0 7.3% 32.4%vs RHP 390 11.2% 11.1% 14.0% 30

8 Jose Altuve 43 D — COOL 105 0.150 85.4 6.1% 17.9%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 40

9 Christian Vazquez 39 D — COOL 140 0.118 85.9 4.2% 17.6%vs RHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 5

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.