TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ CLE

Progressive Field is live · 1.55×

TOR @ CLE

Progressive Field · 6:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.97× Wind 11 mph out 88°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

6:40p

+9 ↑

7:40p

+9 ↑

8:40p

+9 ↑

9:40p

+8 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +9

Best of game Patrick Bailey conv 15 · vs Cease ⟷ Kazuma Okamoto conv 24 · vs Cantillo → edge: Kazuma Okamoto

ATTACK Dylan Cease RHP · TOR

leak 79

0.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.25 · leakiest side of this game

1 Patrick Bailey — D ●●○○○

2 Angel Martinez — D ●○○○○

3 Chase Delauter +575 D ●○○○○

FADE Joey Cantillo LHP · CLE

leak 75

1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kazuma Okamoto +400 C ●●●●○

2 Nathan Lukes +950 D ●●●●○

3 George Springer +575 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kazuma Okamoto: Match 23.7% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto ✶ vs Cantillo Edge +400 0.216 · 90.4 · 10.0% 25.0% 23.7% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· TOR Nathan Lukes HOT vs Cantillo +950 0.125 · 86.9 · 4.3% 33.3% 13.2% F B O D 37

· TOR George Springer vs Cantillo Edge +575 0.167 · 88.3 · 7.1% 22.2% 13.4% F B O D 44

· CLE Patrick Bailey vs Cease Edge — 0.117 · 90.5 · 6.1% 16.7% 13.6% F B O D 35

· CLE Angel Martinez COOL vs Cease Edge — 0.186 · 87.5 · 6.4% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 35

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Cease Edge +575 0.161 · 91.4 · 5.8% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 35

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Cease Edge +525 0.150 · 89.5 · 5.0% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 30

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Cease Edge +850 0.128 · 87.9 · 5.0% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 31

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Cease Edge +950 0.115 · 86.8 · 4.0% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 28

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Cantillo Edge +950 0.113 · 84.2 · 4.1% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 30

· TOR Andres Gimenez vs Cantillo — 0.114 · 85.6 · 5.1% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 30

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero COOL vs Cantillo Edge — 0.093 · 90.1 · 7.0% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 31

· TOR Jesús Sánchez vs Cantillo — 0.162 · 90.8 · 9.2% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 43

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Cantillo Edge — 0.114 · 85.8 · 5.0% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 31

· CLE Steven Kwan vs Cease Edge — 0.060 · 83.9 · 1.7% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 18

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Joey Cantillo — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Dylan Cease — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Springer Lukes Bailey

Legend

attack side — vs Cease fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kazuma Okamoto +400 · 56

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.97× Wind 11 mph out 88°F open

↑

12 mph · out

86°F

6:40p · peak

↑

12 mph · out

85°F

7:40p

↑

12 mph · out

84°F

8:40p

↑

12 mph · out

83°F

9:40p

↑

11 mph · out

81°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.55× 88°F, wind 11 mph SW (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Joey Cantillo · LHP 1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto ✶ 56 C +400 WARM 28 0.216 90.4 10.0% 20.6%vs LHP 400 18.1% 25.0% 23.7% 31

2 George Springer 44 D +575 · 104 0.167 88.3 7.1% 11.5%vs LHP 395 11.4% 22.2% 13.4% 29

3 Jesús Sánchez 43 D — · 113 0.162 90.8 9.2% 0.0%vs LHP 398 9.6% 0.0% 7.0% 10

4 Nathan Lukes 37 D +950 HOT 154 0.125 86.9 4.3% 20.0%vs LHP 382 8.5% 33.3% 13.2% 26

5 Vladimir Guerrero 31 D — COOL 190 0.093 90.1 7.0% 8.0%vs LHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 31

6 Myles Straw 31 D — COOL 192 0.114 85.8 5.0% 5.4%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 23

7 Andres Gimenez 30 D — WARM 196 0.114 85.6 5.1% 13.3%vs LHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 18

8 Ernie Clement 30 D +950 COOL 197 0.113 84.2 4.1% 9.3%vs LHP 376 7.0% 0.0% 7.3% 30

vs Dylan Cease · RHP 0.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.25 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 35 D — COOL 165 0.186 87.5 6.4% 20.9%vs RHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 24

2 Chase Delauter 35 D +575 WARM 167 0.161 91.4 5.8% 20.4%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 17

3 Patrick Bailey 35 D — WARM 171 0.117 90.5 6.1% 15.0%vs RHP 409 7.4% 16.7% 13.6% 11

4 Travis Bazzana 31 D +850 COOL 189 0.128 87.9 5.0% 14.5%vs RHP 396 8.8% 0.0% 8.0% 31

5 Jose Ramirez 30 D +525 COOL 194 0.150 89.5 5.0% 7.8%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 32

6 Brayan Rocchio 28 D +950 COOL 202 0.115 86.8 4.0% 10.6%vs RHP 384 7.0% 0.0% 7.5% 30

7 Steven Kwan 18 D — WARM 211 0.060 83.9 1.7% 2.9%vs RHP 372 1.6% 0.0% 6.6% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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