TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ BOS

Suppressed air · 0.92×

SEA @ BOS

Fenway Park · 4:10p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 9 mph cross 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

-7 ↑

4:10p

-6 ↑

5:10p

-5 ↑

6:10p

-4 ↑

7:10p

-3 ↑

8:10p

conditions build late — the 8:10p window peaks -3

Best of game Cal Raleigh conv 32 · vs Sandoval ⟷ Jarren Duran conv 24 · vs Miller → edge: Cal Raleigh

ATTACK Patrick Sandoval LHP · BOS

leak 84

1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.03 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cal Raleigh +350 C ●●●●●

2 Randy Arozarena +575 D ●●●●○

3 Dominic Canzone +700 C ●●●○○

FADE Bryce Miller RHP · SEA

leak 80

1.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.57 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jarren Duran +575 D ●●●●○

2 Wilyer Abreu +400 C ●●○○○

3 Ceddanne Rafaela +950 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Cal Raleigh: Match 21.5% · 14D pace 41.7% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Cal Raleigh ✶ HOT vs Sandoval Edge +350 0.187 · 89.8 · 10.5% 41.7% 21.5% F B O C 53

· SEA Dominic Canzone COOL vs Sandoval +700 0.225 · 91.2 · 9.6% 16.7% 16.4% F B O C 52

· BOS Wilyer Abreu COOL vs Miller Edge +400 0.209 · 89.8 · 9.7% 15.4% 12.4% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Sandoval Edge +575 0.191 · 90.6 · 7.5% 30.8% 21.5% F B O D 49

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Miller Edge +575 0.160 · 89.8 · 8.5% 30.0% 18.4% F B O D 47

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Sandoval Edge +500 0.157 · 89.9 · 8.4% 7.7% 10.1% F B O D 43

· SEA Cole Young COOL vs Sandoval +950 0.139 · 88.4 · 5.9% 8.3% 7.4% F B O D 36

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela COOL vs Miller +950 0.162 · 86.3 · 6.3% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 38

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Miller — 0.136 · 83.6 · 4.4% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 32

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Miller — 0.151 · 87.9 · 7.2% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 38

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Sandoval +950 0.096 · 87.3 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 30

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Sandoval — 0.126 · 87.8 · 6.8% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Patrick Sandoval — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Bryce Miller — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Raleigh Canzone Arozarena Abreu Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Sandoval fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Cal Raleigh +350 · 53

Randy Arozarena +575 · 49

Jarren Duran +575 · 47

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 4:10p · roof open

Park 0.92× Wind 9 mph cross 72°F open

-7

↑

9 mph · cross

72°F

4:10p

-6

↑

9 mph · cross

72°F

5:10p

-5

↑

8 mph · cross

69°F

6:10p

-4

↑

6 mph · cross

66°F

7:10p

-3

↑

5 mph · slight_out

64°F

8:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.92× 72°F, wind 9 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Patrick Sandoval · LHP 1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.03 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cal Raleigh ✶ 53 C +350 HOT 47 0.187 89.8 10.5% 26.1%vs LHP 385 16.1% 41.7% 21.5% 25

2 Dominic Canzone 52 C +700 COOL 53 0.225 91.2 9.6% 36.4%vs LHP 404 15.9% 16.7% 16.4% 30

3 Randy Arozarena 49 D +575 WARM 73 0.191 90.6 7.5% 24.0%vs LHP 386 15.7% 30.8% 21.5% 31

4 Julio Rodríguez 43 D +500 WARM 112 0.157 89.9 8.4% 20.5%vs LHP 404 15.6% 7.7% 10.1% 32

5 Cole Young 36 D +950 COOL 167 0.139 88.4 5.9% 9.1%vs LHP 383 11.4% 8.3% 7.4% 30

6 J.P. Crawford 32 D — COOL 186 0.126 87.8 6.8% 10.0%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 10

7 Josh Naylor 30 D +950 COOL 202 0.096 87.3 5.8% 11.1%vs LHP 392 6.1% 0.0% 7.2% 37

vs Bryce Miller · RHP 1.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.57 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Wilyer Abreu 51 C +400 COOL 61 0.209 89.8 9.7% 16.0%vs RHP 406 16.3% 15.4% 12.4% 33

2 Jarren Duran 47 D +575 WARM 85 0.160 89.8 8.5% 27.6%vs RHP 399 14.1% 30.0% 18.4% 29

3 Ceddanne Rafaela 38 D +950 COOL 149 0.162 86.3 6.3% 14.5%vs RHP 382 11.9% 0.0% 9.8% 42

4 Andruw Monasterio 38 D — COOL 153 0.151 87.9 7.2% 2.3%vs RHP 390 10.3% 0.0% 7.4% 30

5 Caleb Durbin 32 D — COOL 187 0.136 83.6 4.4% 18.8%vs RHP 376 8.5% 0.0% 8.7% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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