TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ KC

Kauffman Stadium is live · 1.73×

MIA @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 7:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 10 mph out 96°F Roof open

Hourly window

+12 ↑

6:40p

+11 ↑

7:40p

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8:40p

+11 ↑

9:40p

+11 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +12

Best of game Heriberto Hernández conv 15 · vs Cameron ⟷ Carter Jensen conv 24 · vs Pérez → edge: Carter Jensen

ATTACK Noah Cameron LHP · KC

leak 50

0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · leakiest side of this game

1 Heriberto Hernández +350 C ●●○○○

2 Kyle Stowers +400 C ●●○○○

3 Jakob Marsee +850 D ●○○○○

FADE Eury Pérez RHP · MIA

leak 12

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · stingy — thin edge

1 Carter Jensen +425 C ●●●●○

2 Vinnie Pasquantino +525 D ●●●○○

3 Nick Loftin +850 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Carter Jensen: Match 18.4% · 14D pace 30.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Carter Jensen ✶ vs Pérez Edge +425 0.187 · 91.1 · 9.8% 30.0% 18.4% F B O C 53

· MIA Heriberto Hernández COOL vs Cameron Edge +350 0.233 · 91.3 · 10.3% 0.0% 30.9% F B O C 52

· MIA Kyle Stowers HOT vs Cameron +400 0.212 · 92.3 · 9.8% 16.7% 11.5% F B O C 52

· KC Jac Caglianone vs Pérez Edge +330 0.215 · 93.2 · 11.4% 11.1% 14.4% F B O C 56

· MIA Owen Caissie COOL vs Cameron — 0.194 · 91.0 · 10.5% 0.0% 12.8% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino HOT vs Pérez Edge +525 0.136 · 89.6 · 8.3% 27.3% 12.6% F B O D 44

· KC Nick Loftin vs Pérez +850 0.147 · 87.2 · 5.9% 18.2% 9.7% F B O D 40

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Cameron +850 0.113 · 87.2 · 5.2% 11.1% 7.5% F B O D 35

· MIA Javier Sanoja COOL vs Cameron Edge +850 0.137 · 86.8 · 4.1% 9.1% 8.4% F B O D 35

· MIA Otto Lopez vs Cameron Edge +700 0.137 · 89.1 · 7.1% 8.3% 7.3% F B O D 39

· KC Bobby Witt COOL vs Pérez — 0.167 · 92.3 · 10.3% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 46

· KC Salvador Perez vs Pérez +400 0.149 · 88.8 · 9.5% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 41

· KC Isaac Collins vs Pérez Edge +850 0.120 · 88.8 · 7.1% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Noah Cameron — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Eury Pérez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Hernández Stowers Jensen Pasquantino Loftin

Legend

attack side — vs Cameron fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Carter Jensen +425 · 53

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.02× Wind 10 mph out 96°F open

+12

↑

10 mph · out

94°F

6:40p · peak

+11

↑

10 mph · out

92°F

7:40p

+11

↑

10 mph · out

91°F

8:40p

+11

↑

10 mph · out

89°F

9:40p

+11

↑

11 mph · out

87°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.73× 96°F, wind 10 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +7 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Noah Cameron · LHP 0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Heriberto Hernández 52 C +350 COOL 51 0.233 91.3 10.3% 40.0%vs LHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 30.9% 31

2 Kyle Stowers 52 C +400 HOT 53 0.212 92.3 9.8% 7.7%vs LHP 396 13.7% 16.7% 11.5% 11

3 Owen Caissie 50 C — COOL 63 0.194 91.0 10.5% 21.7% 398 13.6% 0.0% 12.8% 13

4 Otto Lopez 39 D +700 WARM 139 0.137 89.1 7.1% 6.9%vs LHP 402 6.7% 8.3% 7.3% 39

5 Javier Sanoja 35 D +850 COOL 169 0.137 86.8 4.1% 15.8%vs LHP 378 6.4% 9.1% 8.4% 37

6 Jakob Marsee 35 D +850 WARM 170 0.113 87.2 5.2% 11.1%vs LHP 381 7.3% 11.1% 7.5% 23

vs Eury Pérez · RHP 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 56 C +330 · 29 0.215 93.2 11.4% 30.8%vs RHP 416 14.9% 11.1% 14.4% 22

2 Carter Jensen ✶ 53 C +425 WARM 45 0.187 91.1 9.8% 18.2%vs RHP 396 15.5% 30.0% 18.4% 24

3 Bobby Witt 46 D — COOL 93 0.167 92.3 10.3% 16.0%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 38

4 Vinnie Pasquantino 44 D +525 HOT 102 0.136 89.6 8.3% 13.8%vs RHP 398 10.1% 27.3% 12.6% 34

5 Salvador Perez 41 D +400 · 124 0.149 88.8 9.5% 16.7%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 36

6 Nick Loftin 40 D +850 · 134 0.147 87.2 5.9% 10.9%vs RHP 394 9.7% 18.2% 9.7% 30

7 Isaac Collins 37 D +850 · 159 0.120 88.8 7.1% 7.8%vs RHP 394 5.3% 0.0% 6.6% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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