TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.30×

ATL @ WSH

Nationals Park · 1:05p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.19× Wind 4 mph in 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

1:05p

+5 ↑

2:05p

+5 ↑

3:05p

+6 ↑

4:05p

+6 ↑

5:05p

conditions build late — the 4:05p window peaks +6

Best of game Matt Olson conv 16 · vs Lord ⟷ Daylen Lile conv 26 · vs Holmes → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Brad Lord RHP · WSH

leak 93

1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.33 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson +305 C+ ●●○○○

2 Michael Harris — C ●●○○○

3 Drake Baldwin +400 C ●●○○○

FADE Grant Holmes RHP · ATL

leak 84

1.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.42 · stingy — thin edge

1 Daylen Lile +525 C ●●●●○

2 Keibert Ruiz +700 C ●●●○○

3 Cj Abrams +425 C+ ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: Match 23.9% · 14D pace 7.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH Daylen Lile HOT vs Holmes Edge +525 0.185 · 88.6 · 8.5% 28.6% 23.5% F B O C 59

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Holmes Edge +700 0.166 · 88.2 · 6.2% 25.0% 16.5% F B O C 52

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ COOL vs Lord Edge +305 0.267 · 92.7 · 9.9% 7.7% 23.9% F B O C+ 68

· ATL Michael Harris COOL vs Lord Edge — 0.203 · 90.4 · 8.2% 0.0% 30.2% F B O C 53

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Lord Edge +400 0.177 · 91.8 · 9.1% 7.7% 16.2% F B O C 56

· WSH Cj Abrams COOL vs Holmes Edge +425 0.238 · 89.4 · 9.0% 0.0% 21.5% F B O C+ 62

· WSH Dylan Crews COOL vs Holmes +525 0.143 · 90.1 · 8.8% 0.0% 10.4% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· ATL Ozzie Albies COOL vs Lord Edge +575 0.158 · 86.9 · 5.1% 7.7% 12.4% F B O D 47

· ATL Ronald Acuna COOL vs Lord — 0.168 · 90.2 · 9.1% 0.0% 13.7% F B O D 49

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Lord Edge — 0.124 · 87.7 · 5.9% 0.0% 13.2% F B O D 44

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Lord Edge +575 0.147 · 90.7 · 6.6% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 46

· ATL Austin Riley COOL vs Lord +475 0.140 · 91.4 · 8.8% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 49

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Holmes — 0.147 · 87.8 · 7.2% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 47

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Lord — 0.119 · 86.6 · 4.9% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 38

· WSH Nasim Nunez vs Holmes Edge — 0.035 · 85.2 · 2.2% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Brad Lord — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Grant Holmes — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Harris Lile Ruiz

Legend

attack side — vs Lord fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Daylen Lile +525 · 59

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 1:05p · roof open

Park 1.19× Wind 4 mph in 80°F open

↑

5 mph · cross

83°F

1:05p

↑

4 mph · cross

84°F

2:05p

↑

4 mph · cross

82°F

3:05p

↑

3 mph · cross

81°F

4:05p · peak

↑

3 mph · cross

79°F

5:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.30× 80°F, wind 4 mph ENE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brad Lord · RHP 1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.33 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 68 C+ +305 COOL 2 0.267 92.7 9.9% 31.1%vs RHP 408 23.6% 7.7% 23.9% 34

2 Drake Baldwin 56 C +400 COOL 31 0.177 91.8 9.1% 24.6%vs RHP 402 16.0% 7.7% 16.2% 32

3 Michael Harris 53 C — COOL 50 0.203 90.4 8.2% 23.7%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 30.2% 37

4 Ronald Acuna 49 D — COOL 73 0.168 90.2 9.1% 21.9%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 30

5 Austin Riley 49 D +475 COOL 74 0.140 91.4 8.8% 17.3%vs RHP 407 8.8% 0.0% 10.8% 23

6 Ozzie Albies 47 D +575 COOL 88 0.158 86.9 5.1% 12.6%vs RHP 386 13.7% 7.7% 12.4% 37

7 Mike Yastrzemski 46 D +575 COOL 95 0.147 90.7 6.6% 15.2%vs RHP 389 7.9% 0.0% 12.0% 17

8 Dominic Smith 44 D — COOL 106 0.124 87.7 5.9% 14.3%vs RHP 392 8.0% 0.0% 13.2% 5

9 Mauricio Dubon 38 D — COOL 150 0.119 86.6 4.9% 9.1%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 42

vs Grant Holmes · RHP 1.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.42 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cj Abrams 62 C+ +425 COOL 16 0.238 89.4 9.0% 28.7%vs RHP 395 33.3% 0.0% 21.5% 20

2 Daylen Lile 59 C +525 HOT 24 0.185 88.6 8.5% 13.4%vs RHP 401 12.2% 28.6% 23.5% 39

3 Keibert Ruiz 52 C +700 COOL 54 0.166 88.2 6.2% 10.0%vs RHP 377 10.6% 25.0% 16.5% 29

4 Dylan Crews 51 C +525 COOL 61 0.143 90.1 8.8% 11.9%vs RHP 407 13.7% 0.0% 10.4% 31

5 Jacob Young 47 D — COOL 87 0.147 87.8 7.2% 12.3%vs RHP 399 7.0% 0.0% 10.7% 28

6 Nasim Nunez 29 D — WARM 200 0.035 85.2 2.2% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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