TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.19×

PHI @ AZ

Chase Field · 3:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 5 mph out 93°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+6 ↑

12:40p

+4 ↑

1:40p

+4 ↑

2:40p

+4 ↑

3:40p

+5 ↑

4:40p

best window is early — 12:40p at +6

Best of game Tim Tawa conv 15 · vs Painter ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 28 · vs Clarke → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Andrew Painter RHP · PHI

leak 88

1.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.50 · leakiest side of this game

1 Tim Tawa — D ●●○○○

2 Corbin Carroll — C ●●○○○

3 Nolan Arenado — D ●●○○○

FADE Taylor Clarke RHP

leak 67

0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.28 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber — C+ ●●●●○

2 Bryce Harper — C ●●●○○

3 Bryson Stott — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 31.0% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Clarke Edge — 0.281 · 92.5 · 12.3% 25.0% 31.0% F B O C+ 65

· — Bryce Harper vs Clarke Edge — 0.237 · 90.4 · 9.9% 16.7% 21.9% F B O C 55

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Painter Edge — 0.232 · 91.7 · 9.8% 7.7% 14.5% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· AZ Tim Tawa HOT vs Painter — 0.159 · 91.1 · 9.2% 15.4% 14.5% F B O D 45

· AZ Nolan Arenado COOL vs Painter — 0.191 · 84.9 · 7.2% 7.7% 12.7% F B O D 45

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Painter — 0.164 · 89.4 · 8.1% 8.3% 9.6% F B O D 43

· — Bryson Stott vs Clarke Edge — 0.150 · 89.2 · 7.0% 9.1% 7.7% F B O D 37

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Painter — 0.116 · 87.4 · 7.3% 7.7% 7.4% F B O D 36

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Painter Edge — 0.195 · 90.2 · 9.1% 0.0% 14.8% F B O D 49

· — J.T. Realmuto HOT vs Clarke — 0.136 · 90.0 · 6.5% 0.0% 12.5% F B O D 33

· — Brandon Marsh COOL vs Clarke Edge — 0.155 · 89.3 · 8.6% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 40

· — Trea Turner COOL vs Clarke — 0.137 · 88.3 · 7.4% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 37

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Painter Edge — 0.118 · 87.4 · 4.9% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 32

· — Alec Bohm COOL vs Clarke — 0.135 · 90.4 · 7.0% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 36

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Painter Edge — 0.135 · 87.4 · 5.2% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 34

· — Justin Crawford COOL vs Clarke Edge — 0.085 · 87.2 · 3.4% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Andrew Painter — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Taylor Clarke — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Tawa Schwarber Harper

Legend

attack side — vs Painter fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kyle Schwarber — · 65

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 12:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.92× Wind 5 mph out 93°F retractable

↑

8 mph · out

93°F

12:40p · peak

↑

9 mph · slight_out

96°F

1:40p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

97°F

2:40p

↑

13 mph · slight_out

99°F

3:40p

↑

15 mph · slight_out

100°F

4:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.19× 93°F, wind 5 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Andrew Painter · RHP 1.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.50 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 53 C — · 48 0.232 91.7 9.8% 17.3%vs RHP 402 13.3% 7.7% 14.5% 35

2 Ketel Marte 49 D — COOL 72 0.195 90.2 9.1% 14.6%vs RHP 409 15.0% 0.0% 14.8% 3

3 Tim Tawa 45 D — HOT 98 0.159 91.1 9.2% 23.7%vs RHP 398 9.5% 15.4% 14.5% 30

4 Nolan Arenado 45 D — COOL 99 0.191 84.9 7.2% 22.1%vs RHP 389 14.7% 7.7% 12.7% 34

5 Gabriel Moreno 43 D — WARM 111 0.164 89.4 8.1% 12.3%vs RHP 401 9.8% 8.3% 9.6% 33

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 36 D — COOL 162 0.116 87.4 7.3% 10.0%vs RHP 415 4.1% 7.7% 7.4% 23

7 Ildemaro Vargas 34 D — COOL 176 0.135 87.4 5.2% 6.8%vs RHP 396 4.8% 0.0% 7.2% 42

8 Geraldo Perdomo 32 D — COOL 185 0.118 87.4 4.9% 10.0%vs RHP 383 6.5% 0.0% 7.4% 39

vs Taylor Clarke · RHP 0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.28 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 65 C+ — COOL 7 0.281 92.5 12.3% 43.1%vs RHP 403 22.5% 25.0% 31.0% 35

2 Bryce Harper 55 C — WARM 34 0.237 90.4 9.9% 35.9%vs RHP 402 18.7% 16.7% 21.9% 31

3 Brandon Marsh 40 D — COOL 131 0.155 89.3 8.6% 18.9%vs RHP 391 11.3% 0.0% 9.2% 23

4 Trea Turner 37 D — COOL 157 0.137 88.3 7.4% 18.4%vs RHP 392 12.3% 0.0% 7.8% 35

5 Bryson Stott 37 D — · 158 0.150 89.2 7.0% 8.6%vs RHP 385 7.8% 9.1% 7.7% 29

6 Alec Bohm 36 D — COOL 164 0.135 90.4 7.0% 13.6%vs RHP 397 10.2% 0.0% 7.2% 31

7 J.T. Realmuto 33 D — HOT 179 0.136 90.0 6.5% 18.2%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 25

8 Justin Crawford 25 D — COOL 208 0.085 87.2 3.4% 4.2%vs RHP 382 2.0% 0.0% 6.2% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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