TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.63×

CWS @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 8:10p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.16× Wind 10 mph out 85°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+18 ↑

7:10p

+17 ↑

8:10p

+16 ↑

9:10p

+15 ↑

10:10p

+14 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +18

Best of game Tristan Peters conv 31 · vs Wesneski ⟷ Jeremy Peña conv 28 · vs Martin → edge: Colson Montgomery

ATTACK Hayden Wesneski RHP · HOU

leak 77

0.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.58 · leakiest side of this game

1 Tristan Peters +850 C ●●●●●

2 Randal Grichuk — C+ ●●●●○

3 Colson Montgomery +390 C+ ●●●●○

FADE Davis Martin RHP · CWS

leak 64

0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jeremy Peña +575 C ●●●●○

2 Yainer Diaz +700 D ●●●○○

3 Isaac Paredes +500 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Colson Montgomery: Match 31.0% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Wesneski Edge +850 0.187 · 87.4 · 6.3% 38.5% 23.1% F B O C 54

· CWS Randal Grichuk COOL vs Wesneski — 0.273 · 91.0 · 9.2% 33.3% 22.8% F B O C+ 61

· CWS Colson Montgomery ✶ vs Wesneski Edge +390 0.221 · 88.8 · 9.2% 25.0% 31.0% F B O C+ 63

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Martin +575 0.197 · 88.3 · 6.6% 27.3% 28.1% F B O C 56

· HOU Christian Walker vs Martin +500 0.202 · 89.3 · 7.9% 8.3% 16.2% F B O C 55

· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs Wesneski Edge +525 0.181 · 89.0 · 7.8% 10.0% 13.7% F B O C 51

· CWS Munetaka Murakami COOL vs Wesneski Edge +320 0.278 · 93.9 · 11.6% 0.0% 23.2% F B O C+ 66

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Wesneski +400 0.239 · 90.7 · 9.9% 7.7% 13.3% F B O C+ 61

· HOU Yordan Alvarez COOL vs Martin Edge +280 0.289 · 94.5 · 10.7% 0.0% 19.9% F B O C+ 62

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Martin +750 0.177 · 89.3 · 8.7% 0.0% 13.4% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· HOU Yainer Diaz HOT vs Martin +700 0.157 · 88.0 · 6.1% 14.3% 22.1% F B O D 48

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Martin +500 0.159 · 85.9 · 5.8% 15.4% 11.6% F B O D 47

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Wesneski Edge +750 0.130 · 89.0 · 5.4% 9.1% 9.7% F B O D 42

· HOU Christian Vazquez vs Martin — 0.125 · 85.9 · 3.9% 0.0% 16.3% F B O D 38

· HOU Taylor Trammell COOL vs Martin Edge +750 0.153 · 88.3 · 9.0% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 49

· HOU Jose Altuve vs Martin +750 0.149 · 85.4 · 5.7% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 40

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Wesneski Edge +850 0.124 · 87.3 · 6.0% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 41

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Wesneski — 0.128 · 87.7 · 5.5% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Hayden Wesneski — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Davis Martin — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Montgomery Grichuk Peters Peña Diaz Paredes

Legend

attack side — vs Wesneski fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Tristan Peters +850 · 54

Randal Grichuk — · 61

Colson Montgomery +390 · 63

Jeremy Peña +575 · 56

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.16× Wind 10 mph out 85°F retractable

+18

↑

12 mph · out

84°F

7:10p · peak

+17

↑

11 mph · out

83°F

8:10p

+16

↑

10 mph · out

81°F

9:10p

+15

↑

9 mph · out

80°F

10:10p

+14

↑

8 mph · out

80°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.63× 85°F, wind 10 mph SE (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Hayden Wesneski · RHP 0.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.58 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami 66 C+ +320 COOL 5 0.278 93.9 11.6% 39.7%vs RHP 404 18.1% 0.0% 23.2% 24

2 Colson Montgomery ✶ 63 C+ +390 WARM 12 0.221 88.8 9.2% 25.7%vs RHP 398 21.9% 25.0% 31.0% 19

3 Randal Grichuk 61 C+ — COOL 18 0.273 91.0 9.2% 16.7%vs RHP 393 14.3% 33.3% 22.8% 10

4 Miguel Vargas 61 C+ +400 COOL 19 0.239 90.7 9.9% 17.3%vs RHP 393 20.0% 7.7% 13.3% 30

5 Tristan Peters 54 C +850 WARM 39 0.187 87.4 6.3% 15.1%vs RHP 377 12.0% 38.5% 23.1% 30

6 Andrew Benintendi 51 C +525 WARM 58 0.181 89.0 7.8% 17.5%vs RHP 388 13.2% 10.0% 13.7% 26

7 Braden Montgomery 42 D +750 · 118 0.130 89.0 5.4% 16.0%vs RHP 390 6.1% 9.1% 9.7% 40

8 Sam Antonacci 41 D +850 COOL 129 0.124 87.3 6.0% 12.3%vs RHP 390 8.0% 0.0% 9.2% 32

9 Chase Meidroth 40 D — COOL 133 0.128 87.7 5.5% 15.4%vs RHP 379 7.6% 0.0% 7.1% 36

vs Davis Martin · RHP 0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 62 C+ +280 COOL 13 0.289 94.5 10.7% 26.2%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 19.9% 31

2 Jeremy Peña 56 C +575 WARM 27 0.197 88.3 6.6% 30.0%vs RHP 387 16.7% 27.3% 28.1% 23

3 Christian Walker 55 C +500 · 37 0.202 89.3 7.9% 25.0%vs RHP 391 17.1% 8.3% 16.2% 34

4 Cam Smith 51 C +750 COOL 59 0.177 89.3 8.7% 19.6%vs RHP 408 12.4% 0.0% 13.4% 22

5 Taylor Trammell 49 D +750 COOL 70 0.153 88.3 9.0% 20.0%vs RHP 413 12.8% 0.0% 11.6% 20

6 Yainer Diaz 48 D +700 HOT 77 0.157 88.0 6.1% 29.0%vs RHP 392 10.3% 14.3% 22.1% 21

7 Isaac Paredes 47 D +500 COOL 86 0.159 85.9 5.8% 17.2%vs RHP 377 12.1% 15.4% 11.6% 37

8 Jose Altuve 40 D +750 WARM 130 0.149 85.4 5.7% 20.4%vs RHP 378 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 32

9 Christian Vazquez 38 D — WARM 144 0.125 85.9 3.9% 17.6%vs RHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 16.3% 11

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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