TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.27×

STL @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 10:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 8 mph out 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

7:10p

+8 ↑

8:10p

+8 ↑

9:10p

+6 ↑

10:10p

+5 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +9

Best of game Jordan Walker conv 30 · vs Yamamoto ⟷ Max Muncy conv 31 · vs Proxy → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP · LAD

leak 74

0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.09 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jordan Walker — C ●●●●●

2 Nolan Gorman — D ●●○○○

3 Nathan Church — D ●○○○○

FADE STL Bullpen Proxy · STL

leak 43

1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Max Muncy — C+ ●●●●●

2 Dalton Rushing — C ●○○○○

3 Tommy Edman — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: Match 24.6% · 14D pace 37.5%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Max Muncy ✶ COOL vs Proxy — 0.243 · 90.4 · 12.9% 37.5% 24.6% F B O C+ 68

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Yamamoto — 0.211 · 92.4 · 9.3% 33.3% 26.4% F B O C 58

· LAD Dalton Rushing vs Proxy — 0.222 · 89.6 · 12.2% 0.0% 19.1% F B O C 55

· LAD Shohei Ohtani COOL vs Proxy — 0.249 · 93.4 · 15.8% 0.0% 17.2% F B O C+ 67

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· STL Nolan Gorman vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.132 · 89.4 · 8.0% 16.7% 15.1% F B O D 43

· LAD Tommy Edman vs Proxy — 0.137 · 87.9 · 5.7% 11.1% 7.9% F B O D 40

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Proxy — 0.165 · 89.9 · 7.0% 9.1% 9.8% F B O D 45

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.127 · 85.8 · 6.3% 10.0% 8.7% F B O D 38

· STL José Fermín vs Yamamoto — 0.116 · 86.3 · 4.0% 10.0% 7.6% F B O D 34

· STL Alec Burleson COOL vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.188 · 92.1 · 8.4% 0.0% 13.7% F B O D 48

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Proxy — 0.157 · 89.7 · 8.2% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 45

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez COOL vs Proxy — 0.146 · 89.6 · 9.3% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 42

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Yamamoto — 0.132 · 89.2 · 5.9% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 35

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Proxy — 0.129 · 88.7 · 5.5% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Yoshinobu Yamamoto — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for STL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Walker Gorman Muncy

Legend

attack side — vs Yamamoto fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Max Muncy — · 68

Jordan Walker — · 58

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 8 mph out 74°F open

↑

8 mph · out

74°F

7:10p · peak

↑

7 mph · out

71°F

8:10p

↑

6 mph · out

69°F

9:10p

↑

5 mph · out

68°F

10:10p

↑

4 mph · out

67°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.27× 74°F, wind 8 mph SW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · RHP 0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.09 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 58 C — COOL 25 0.211 92.4 9.3% 25.0%vs RHP 406 18.3% 33.3% 26.4% 30

2 Alec Burleson 48 D — COOL 76 0.188 92.1 8.4% 22.2%vs RHP 405 14.4% 0.0% 13.7% 33

3 Nolan Gorman 43 D — WARM 107 0.132 89.4 8.0% 16.3%vs RHP 405 9.4% 16.7% 15.1% 12

4 Nathan Church 38 D — COOL 146 0.127 85.8 6.3% 14.8%vs RHP 386 8.3% 10.0% 8.7% 28

5 Ivan Herrera 35 D — COOL 166 0.132 89.2 5.9% 17.3%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 30

6 José Fermín 34 D — WARM 174 0.116 86.3 4.0% 6.7%vs RHP 390 6.1% 10.0% 7.6% 33

vs STL Bullpen Proxy 1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy ✶ 68 C+ — COOL 8 0.243 90.4 12.9% 22.2% 411 21.1% 37.5% 24.6% 41

2 Shohei Ohtani 67 C+ — COOL 11 0.249 93.4 15.8% 24.8% 407 18.8% 0.0% 17.2% 25

3 Dalton Rushing 55 C — · 55 0.222 89.6 12.2% 22.6% 400 10.0% 0.0% 19.1% 0

4 Mookie Betts 45 D — COOL 122 0.165 89.9 7.0% 11.6% 389 10.5% 9.1% 9.8% 37

5 Freddie Freeman 45 D — COOL 123 0.157 89.7 8.2% 11.9% 398 9.7% 0.0% 9.4% 31

6 Teoscar Hernandez 42 D — COOL 143 0.146 89.6 9.3% 13.0% 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 19

7 Tommy Edman 40 D — · 160 0.137 87.9 5.7% 9.3% 398 8.1% 11.1% 7.9% 24

8 Kyle Tucker 38 D — COOL 172 0.129 88.7 5.5% 7.7% 392 7.0% 0.0% 7.3% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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