TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ CIN

Great American Ball Park is live · 1.27×

SD @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 12:40p · 10 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 6 mph slight_out 89°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

12:40p

+8 ↑

1:40p

+9 ↑

2:40p

+10 ↑

3:40p

+11 ↑

4:40p

conditions build late — the 4:40p window peaks +11

Best of game Sal Stewart conv 34 · vs Mize ⟷ Jackson Merrill conv 22 · vs Williamson → edge: Sal Stewart

ATTACK Casey Mize RHP · DET

leak 84

0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.67 · leakiest side of this game

1 Sal Stewart +320 C+ ●●●●●

2 Tyler Stephenson +425 C ●●●○○

3 Matt Mclain +525 D ●●●○○

FADE Brandon Williamson LHP · CIN

leak 13

1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jackson Merrill +370 C ●●●○○

2 Ty France +400 C+ ●●●○○

3 Jake Cronenworth +700 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Sal Stewart: Match 28.9% · 14D pace 38.5%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Sal Stewart ✶ vs Mize +320 0.222 · 90.1 · 10.3% 38.5% 28.9% F B O C+ 62

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Williamson +370 0.177 · 90.7 · 10.3% 25.0% 18.1% F B O C 59

· — Tyler Stephenson vs Mize +425 0.175 · 91.1 · 10.0% 18.2% 20.7% F B O C 51

· — Jj Bleday vs Mize Edge +320 0.209 · 88.6 · 8.8% 25.0% 12.4% F B O C 51

· SD Ty France COOL vs Williamson Edge +400 0.215 · 91.9 · 9.7% 16.7% 18.6% F B O C+ 60

· — Elly De La Cruz vs Mize Edge +320 0.206 · 93.8 · 10.4% 7.7% 12.1% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 4 long shots

· — Matt Mclain COOL vs Mize +525 0.150 · 88.2 · 8.8% 25.0% 12.5% F B O D 46

· — Dane Myers COOL vs Mize — 0.114 · 89.2 · 6.2% 14.3% 8.7% F B O D 39

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Williamson +700 0.076 · 87.2 · 5.5% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 36

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Williamson Edge +525 0.104 · 89.1 · 7.7% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 42

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Brandon Williamson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Casey Mize — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → France Merrill Stewart Bleday Stephenson Mclain

Legend

attack side — vs Mize fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Sal Stewart +320 · 62

Jackson Merrill +370 · 59

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 12:40p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 6 mph slight_out 89°F open

↑

6 mph · slight_out

85°F

12:40p

↑

6 mph · out

86°F

1:40p

↑

6 mph · out

87°F

2:40p

+10

↑

7 mph · out

89°F

3:40p

+11

↑

7 mph · out

91°F

4:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.27× 89°F, wind 6 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brandon Williamson · LHP 1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · 4 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 60 C+ +400 COOL 21 0.215 91.9 9.7% 22.2%vs LHP 392 15.7% 16.7% 18.6% 30

2 Jackson Merrill 59 C +370 WARM 23 0.177 90.7 10.3% 14.3%vs LHP 412 16.0% 25.0% 18.1% 31

3 Xander Bogaerts 42 D +525 WARM 121 0.104 89.1 7.7% 4.8%vs LHP 400 7.8% 0.0% 6.5% 27

4 Jake Cronenworth 36 D +700 COOL 161 0.076 87.2 5.5% 14.3%vs LHP 392 2.2% 0.0% 8.0% 26

vs Casey Mize · RHP 0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.67 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart ✶ 62 C+ +320 WARM 14 0.222 90.1 10.3% 23.7%vs RHP 397 18.5% 38.5% 28.9% 40

2 Elly De La Cruz 54 C +320 · 42 0.206 93.8 10.4% 20.3%vs RHP 398 15.1% 7.7% 12.1% 35

3 Jj Bleday 51 C +320 · 56 0.209 88.6 8.8% 21.1%vs RHP 387 20.0% 25.0% 12.4% 33

4 Tyler Stephenson 51 C +425 · 57 0.175 91.1 10.0% 22.4%vs RHP 392 10.1% 18.2% 20.7% 26

5 Matt Mclain 46 D +525 COOL 92 0.150 88.2 8.8% 13.6%vs RHP 394 14.3% 25.0% 12.5% 33

6 Dane Myers 39 D — COOL 140 0.114 89.2 6.2% 11.8%vs RHP 384 6.8% 14.3% 8.7% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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