TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ TEX

Globe Life Field is live · 1.32×

ATH @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 2:35p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 6 mph in 97°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-6 ↑

1:35p

-4 ↑

2:35p

+0 ↑

3:35p

+1 ↑

4:35p

-2 ↑

5:35p

conditions build late — the 4:35p window peaks +1

Best of game Joc Pederson conv 30 · vs Lopez ⟷ Lawrence Butler conv 8 · vs Bradford → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Jacob Lopez LHP · ATH

leak 34

1.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · leakiest side of this game

1 Joc Pederson — C+ ●●●●●

2 Jake Burger +390 C ●●●○○

3 Ezequiel Duran +750 D ●●○○○

FADE Cody Bradford LHP · TEX

leak 3

0.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.86 · stingy — thin edge

1 Lawrence Butler +525 D ●○○○○

2 Carlos Cortes — D ●○○○○

3 Zack Gelof +525 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: Match 27.3% · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Lopez — 0.247 · 92.3 · 8.1% 33.3% 27.3% F B O C+ 61

· TEX Jake Burger HOT vs Lopez Edge +390 0.189 · 90.2 · 8.2% 18.2% 23.2% F B O C 54

· TEX Corey Seager vs Lopez +400 0.179 · 91.7 · 9.0% 7.7% 11.1% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Lopez Edge +750 0.175 · 88.9 · 6.0% 15.4% 13.0% F B O D 47

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Lopez Edge +500 0.196 · 89.2 · 6.3% 7.7% 12.8% F B O D 48

· TEX Brandon Nimmo vs Lopez +525 0.159 · 92.2 · 7.7% 7.7% 9.5% F B O D 46

· ATH Lawrence Butler COOL vs Bradford +525 0.142 · 89.4 · 8.2% 7.7% 9.2% F B O D 42

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Bradford — 0.140 · 89.0 · 7.5% 8.3% 7.4% F B O D 39

· ATH Zack Gelof COOL vs Bradford Edge +525 0.190 · 88.7 · 8.4% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 47

· ATH Henry Bolte COOL vs Bradford Edge +525 0.098 · 90.9 · 7.7% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 37

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Lopez — 0.122 · 88.0 · 5.5% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 37

· TEX Nicky Lopez vs Lopez — 0.039 · 84.3 · — 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 22

· ATH Jeff Mcneil COOL vs Bradford +950 0.095 · 86.6 · 3.9% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Cody Bradford — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Jacob Lopez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Burger Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Lopez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Joc Pederson — · 61

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 1:35p · roof retractable

Park 1.02× Wind 6 mph in 97°F retractable

-6

↑

9 mph · in

87°F

1:35p

-4

↑

11 mph · cross

89°F

2:35p

↑

14 mph · cross

91°F

3:35p

↑

15 mph · cross

92°F

4:35p · peak

-2

↑

14 mph · cross

91°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.32× 97°F, wind 6 mph ENE (in) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cody Bradford · LHP 0.35 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.86 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zack Gelof 47 D +525 COOL 85 0.190 88.7 8.4% 15.8%vs LHP 398 17.3% 0.0% 9.1% 31

2 Lawrence Butler 42 D +525 COOL 120 0.142 89.4 8.2% 28.6%vs LHP 410 8.4% 7.7% 9.2% 25

3 Carlos Cortes 39 D — COOL 138 0.140 89.0 7.5% 12.1% 401 5.1% 8.3% 7.4% 29

4 Henry Bolte 37 D +525 COOL 156 0.098 90.9 7.7% 41.7%vs LHP 410 8.6% 0.0% 8.2% 33

5 Jeff Mcneil 30 D +950 COOL 199 0.095 86.6 3.9% 0.0%vs LHP 381 4.8% 0.0% 5.6% 43

vs Jacob Lopez · LHP 1.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 61 C+ — · 17 0.247 92.3 8.1% 24.2% 395 22.6% 33.3% 27.3% 18

2 Jake Burger 54 C +390 HOT 38 0.189 90.2 8.2% 34.6%vs LHP 401 16.1% 18.2% 23.2% 26

3 Corey Seager 50 C +400 · 62 0.179 91.7 9.0% 18.8%vs LHP 394 15.2% 7.7% 11.1% 34

4 Wyatt Langford 48 D +500 COOL 78 0.196 89.2 6.3% 16.7%vs LHP 396 15.2% 7.7% 12.8% 34

5 Ezequiel Duran 47 D +750 WARM 84 0.175 88.9 6.0% 13.6%vs LHP 395 12.5% 15.4% 13.0% 34

6 Brandon Nimmo 46 D +525 · 94 0.159 92.2 7.7% 16.1%vs LHP 404 10.2% 7.7% 9.5% 36

7 Evan Carter 37 D — COOL 153 0.122 88.0 5.5% 0.0%vs LHP 374 6.8% 0.0% 5.9% 21

8 Nicky Lopez 22 D — · 210 0.039 84.3 — 0.0%vs LHP 397 1.9% 0.0% 5.9% 8

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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