TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ TB

Playable air · 1.08×

NYM @ TB

Tropicana Field · 6:40p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Juan Soto conv 31 · vs Jax ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 18 · vs Proxy → edge: Juan Soto

ATTACK Griffin Jax RHP · TB

leak 95

1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.77 · leakiest side of this game

1 Juan Soto +400 C+ ●●●●●

2 Francisco Lindor +400 C ●●●○○

3 Carson Benge +850 D ●●○○○

FADE NYM Bullpen Proxy · NYM

leak 48

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero +280 C+ ●●●○○

2 Jonathan Aranda +500 C ●●○○○

3 Cedric Mullins +525 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Juan Soto: Match 27.9% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYM Juan Soto ✶ vs Jax Edge +400 0.260 · 92.7 · 11.3% 33.3% 27.9% F B O C+ 65

· NYM Francisco Lindor COOL vs Jax Edge +400 0.189 · 91.1 · 9.3% 25.0% 16.8% F B O C 54

· TB Junior Caminero vs Proxy +280 0.253 · 93.0 · 13.1% 15.4% 20.2% F B O C+ 68

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Proxy +500 0.142 · 91.1 · 9.8% 18.2% 11.0% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Jax Edge +850 0.144 · 88.9 · 8.2% 16.7% 13.8% F B O D 47

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Jax +700 0.128 · 89.7 · 7.5% 18.2% 11.6% F B O D 44

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Proxy +525 0.147 · 87.9 · 4.2% 11.1% 8.8% F B O D 41

· NYM Jared Young COOL vs Jax Edge +850 0.174 · 89.7 · 8.1% 0.0% 13.9% F B O D 46

· NYM Francisco Alvarez COOL vs Jax +525 0.163 · 89.9 · 11.9% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 48

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Proxy +525 0.161 · 90.8 · 7.0% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 42

· TB Jonny Deluca vs Proxy — 0.167 · 85.7 · 3.6% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 37

· NYM Brett Baty vs Jax Edge +850 0.117 · 89.9 · 9.2% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 43

· NYM A.J. Ewing COOL vs Jax Edge — 0.113 · 89.3 · 8.0% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 39

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Jax +750 0.128 · 86.5 · 7.5% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 42

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs Proxy — 0.106 · 86.0 · 3.5% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 34

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Proxy — 0.098 · 85.2 · 2.2% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 32

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Proxy — 0.071 · 85.5 · 2.0% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 28

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Proxy — 0.053 · 83.8 · — 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Griffin Jax — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for NYM Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Soto Lindor Benge Bichette Caminero Aranda

Legend

attack side — vs Jax fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Juan Soto +400 · 65

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.08× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.08× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Griffin Jax · RHP 1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.77 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto ✶ 65 C+ +400 WARM 6 0.260 92.7 11.3% 30.4%vs RHP 401 20.0% 33.3% 27.9% 6

2 Francisco Lindor 54 C +400 COOL 43 0.189 91.1 9.3% 15.7%vs RHP 396 14.4% 25.0% 16.8% 35

3 Francisco Alvarez 48 D +525 COOL 75 0.163 89.9 11.9% 27.5%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 14

4 Carson Benge 47 D +850 COOL 83 0.144 88.9 8.2% 14.7%vs RHP 396 10.6% 16.7% 13.8% 32

5 Jared Young 46 D +850 COOL 91 0.174 89.7 8.1% 18.2%vs RHP 400 6.6% 0.0% 13.9% 34

6 Bo Bichette 44 D +700 COOL 103 0.128 89.7 7.5% 11.4%vs RHP 385 9.7% 18.2% 11.6% 30

7 Brett Baty 43 D +850 WARM 110 0.117 89.9 9.2% 13.1%vs RHP 397 6.7% 0.0% 9.8% 16

8 Marcus Semien 42 D +750 COOL 119 0.128 86.5 7.5% 15.9%vs RHP 391 10.6% 0.0% 9.2% 34

9 A.J. Ewing 39 D — COOL 135 0.113 89.3 8.0% 10.9%vs RHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 33

vs NYM Bullpen Proxy 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero 68 C+ +280 WARM 9 0.253 93.0 13.1% 29.6% 414 25.2% 15.4% 20.2% 38

2 Jonathan Aranda 50 C +500 · 89 0.142 91.1 9.8% 12.7% 390 11.7% 18.2% 11.0% 33

3 Yandy Diaz 42 D +525 · 142 0.161 90.8 7.0% 18.0% 388 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 40

4 Cedric Mullins 41 D +525 WARM 152 0.147 87.9 4.2% 8.9% 387 12.0% 11.1% 8.8% 27

5 Jonny Deluca 37 D — WARM 178 0.167 85.7 3.6% 11.4% 390 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 33

6 Richie Palacios 34 D — COOL 193 0.106 86.0 3.5% 6.7% 398 3.9% 0.0% 7.5% 26

7 Nick Fortes 32 D — COOL 201 0.098 85.2 2.2% 6.0% 396 4.2% 0.0% 7.5% 8

8 Taylor Walls 28 D — COOL 209 0.071 85.5 2.0% 2.1% 383 0.9% 0.0% 6.9% 24

9 Chandler Simpson 21 D — COOL 212 0.053 83.8 — 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 44

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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