TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ LAA

Playable air · 1.06×

NYY @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 9:38p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.82× Wind 9 mph out 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

6:38p

+1 ↑

7:38p

+1 ↑

8:38p

+1 ↑

9:38p

+1 ↑

10:38p

conditions hold steady across the window · +1 FIT

Best of game Zach Neto conv 21 · vs Schlittler ⟷ Paul Goldschmidt conv 25 · vs Detmers → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Cam Schlittler RHP · NYY

leak 81

0.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · leakiest side of this game

1 Zach Neto +500 D ●●●○○

2 Vaughn Grissom +850 D ●○○○○

3 Mike Trout +500 D ●○○○○

FADE Reid Detmers LHP · LAA

leak 46

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Paul Goldschmidt +425 D ●●●●○

2 Jazz Chisholm — D ●●●○○

3 Ben Rice +400 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: Match 17.1% · 14D pace 15.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Detmers +400 0.269 · 92.2 · 10.7% 15.4% 17.1% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt vs Detmers Edge +425 0.211 · 86.7 · 9.2% 28.6% 22.2% F B O D 46

· LAA Zach Neto vs Schlittler +500 0.196 · 89.6 · 9.6% 25.0% 17.8% F B O D 45

· NYY Jazz Chisholm COOL vs Detmers — 0.171 · 90.8 · 8.2% 33.3% 8.6% F B O D 38

· NYY Cody Bellinger COOL vs Detmers +575 0.156 · 88.8 · 6.9% 10.0% 7.2% F B O D 33

· NYY Trent Grisham COOL vs Detmers — 0.187 · 90.6 · 8.7% 7.7% 8.5% F B O D 40

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Schlittler +850 0.140 · 87.8 · 7.2% 7.7% 8.2% F B O D 31

· NYY Austin Wells vs Detmers — 0.129 · 89.2 · 7.1% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 31

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Schlittler +500 0.186 · 89.8 · 11.1% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 41

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Detmers Edge +850 0.139 · 83.9 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 26

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Detmers — 0.151 · 91.1 · 8.6% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 35

· LAA Josh Lowe COOL vs Schlittler Edge +700 0.141 · 88.7 · 7.7% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 31

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Schlittler +950 0.119 · 87.3 · 7.2% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Reid Detmers — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Cam Schlittler — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Goldschmidt Chisholm Neto

Legend

attack side — vs Schlittler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Paul Goldschmidt +425 · 46

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 6:38p · roof open

Park 0.82× Wind 9 mph out 79°F open

↑

9 mph · slight_out

72°F

6:38p · peak

↑

9 mph · slight_out

72°F

7:38p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

72°F

8:38p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

72°F

9:38p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

72°F

10:38p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 79°F, wind 9 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Reid Detmers · LHP 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 54 C +400 · 46 0.269 92.2 10.7% 32.3%vs LHP 394 23.7% 15.4% 17.1% 34

2 Paul Goldschmidt 46 D +425 WARM 96 0.211 86.7 9.2% 35.5%vs LHP 390 17.1% 28.6% 22.2% 14

3 Trent Grisham 40 D — COOL 155 0.187 90.6 8.7% 10.3%vs LHP 388 13.4% 7.7% 8.5% 32

4 Jazz Chisholm 38 D — COOL 174 0.171 90.8 8.2% 18.5%vs LHP 387 20.0% 33.3% 8.6% 31

5 Ryan Mcmahon 35 D — COOL 196 0.151 91.1 8.6% 0.0%vs LHP 387 14.3% 0.0% 7.0% 2

6 Cody Bellinger 33 D +575 COOL 212 0.156 88.8 6.9% 12.1%vs LHP 378 9.3% 10.0% 7.2% 32

7 Austin Wells 31 D — · 219 0.129 89.2 7.1% 17.6%vs LHP 379 8.2% 0.0% 11.1% 22

8 Jose Caballero 26 D +850 WARM 239 0.139 83.9 5.8% 22.2%vs LHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 33

vs Cam Schlittler · RHP 0.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto 45 D +500 · 105 0.196 89.6 9.6% 19.1%vs RHP 404 16.0% 25.0% 17.8% 37

2 Mike Trout 41 D +500 COOL 141 0.186 89.8 11.1% 21.1%vs RHP 409 13.7% 0.0% 10.5% 32

3 Vaughn Grissom 31 D +850 COOL 221 0.140 87.8 7.2% 18.6%vs RHP 389 8.3% 7.7% 8.2% 38

4 Josh Lowe 31 D +700 COOL 225 0.141 88.7 7.7% 17.5%vs RHP 392 9.4% 0.0% 6.9% 24

5 Oswald Peraza 28 D +950 COOL 235 0.119 87.3 7.2% 8.0%vs RHP 386 5.1% 0.0% 6.2% 9

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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