TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ CHC

Wrigley Field is live · 1.60×

MIL @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 7:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.14× Wind 7 mph out 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

+15 ↑

6:40p

+15 ↑

7:40p

+14 ↑

8:40p

+13 ↑

9:40p

+13 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +15

Best of game Jackson Chourio conv 21 · vs Peterson ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 33 · vs Misiorowski → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK David Peterson LHP · CHC

leak 95

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Chourio +425 C ●●●○○

2 Jake Bauers +475 C+ ●●●○○

3 Joey Ortiz +950 D ●●○○○

FADE Jacob Misiorowski RHP · MIL

leak 54

0.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +320 C+ ●●●●●

2 Ian Happ +575 C ●●●●●

3 Alex Bregman +700 D ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 31.9% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Misiorowski Edge +320 0.291 · 90.2 · 7.4% 33.3% 31.9% F B O C+ 66

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Misiorowski Edge +575 0.201 · 89.1 · 6.8% 37.5% 26.1% F B O C 55

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Peterson Edge +425 0.195 · 92.0 · 9.3% 16.7% 25.5% F B O C 59

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Misiorowski +500 0.217 · 88.5 · 6.6% 16.7% 20.3% F B O C 53

· MIL Jake Bauers COOL vs Peterson +475 0.224 · 92.4 · 9.5% 10.0% 25.2% F B O C+ 62

· MIL Garrett Mitchell vs Peterson +625 0.150 · 92.9 · 8.9% 12.5% 12.5% F B O C 50

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Peterson +950 0.171 · 90.2 · 7.0% 8.3% 11.8% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Misiorowski +700 0.182 · 88.1 · 4.7% 33.3% 23.9% F B O D 49

· CHC Carson Kelly vs Misiorowski — 0.133 · 87.2 · 4.7% 30.0% 16.1% F B O D 42

· CHC Michael Busch vs Misiorowski Edge +575 0.152 · 88.3 · 6.2% 16.7% 15.5% F B O D 45

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Peterson Edge +950 0.128 · 88.6 · 5.4% 20.0% 8.5% F B O D 44

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Peterson — 0.142 · 88.9 · 8.2% 10.0% 11.5% F B O D 48

· MIL William Contreras vs Peterson Edge +500 0.129 · 90.1 · 7.2% 9.1% 8.4% F B O D 45

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Misiorowski — 0.098 · 85.9 · 2.2% 8.3% 8.8% F B O D 31

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Peterson — 0.091 · 86.9 · 4.7% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for David Peterson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Jacob Misiorowski — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Chourio Ortiz Crow-Armstrong Happ Suzuki Bregman Busch Kelly

Legend

attack side — vs Peterson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Pete Crow-Armstrong +320 · 66

Ian Happ +575 · 55

Alex Bregman +700 · 49

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.14× Wind 7 mph out 85°F open

+15

↑

9 mph · out

87°F

6:40p · peak

+15

↑

9 mph · out

86°F

7:40p

+14

↑

8 mph · out

84°F

8:40p

+13

↑

8 mph · out

82°F

9:40p

+13

↑

8 mph · out

82°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.60× 85°F, wind 7 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs David Peterson · LHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 62 C+ +475 COOL 15 0.224 92.4 9.5% 23.1%vs LHP 401 18.9% 10.0% 25.2% 16

2 Jackson Chourio 59 C +425 · 22 0.195 92.0 9.3% 28.6%vs LHP 399 16.3% 16.7% 25.5% 37

3 Garrett Mitchell 50 C +625 WARM 64 0.150 92.9 8.9% 16.7%vs LHP 415 7.4% 12.5% 12.5% 20

4 Brice Turang 50 C +950 COOL 65 0.171 90.2 7.0% 5.3%vs LHP 407 10.6% 8.3% 11.8% 33

5 Christian Yelich 48 D — · 79 0.142 88.9 8.2% 15.4%vs LHP 400 8.5% 10.0% 11.5% 27

6 William Contreras 45 D +500 · 100 0.129 90.1 7.2% 10.3%vs LHP 414 9.6% 9.1% 8.4% 36

7 Joey Ortiz 44 D +950 WARM 105 0.128 88.6 5.4% 11.1%vs LHP 391 7.7% 20.0% 8.5% 28

8 David Hamilton 37 D — COOL 155 0.091 86.9 4.7% 20.0%vs LHP 386 4.4% 0.0% 11.3% 28

vs Jacob Misiorowski · RHP 0.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 66 C+ +320 · 4 0.291 90.2 7.4% 25.0%vs RHP 397 22.3% 33.3% 31.9% 41

2 Ian Happ 55 C +575 COOL 32 0.201 89.1 6.8% 24.7%vs RHP 402 18.0% 37.5% 26.1% 22

3 Seiya Suzuki 53 C +500 · 44 0.217 88.5 6.6% 22.2%vs RHP 406 17.2% 16.7% 20.3% 36

4 Alex Bregman 49 D +700 WARM 67 0.182 88.1 4.7% 16.9%vs RHP 390 12.5% 33.3% 23.9% 41

5 Michael Busch 45 D +575 WARM 96 0.152 88.3 6.2% 12.2%vs RHP 401 12.9% 16.7% 15.5% 26

6 Carson Kelly 42 D — · 117 0.133 87.2 4.7% 10.8%vs RHP 406 9.0% 30.0% 16.1% 27

7 Nico Hoerner 31 D — WARM 187 0.098 85.9 2.2% 7.0%vs RHP 381 5.9% 8.3% 8.8% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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