TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ COL

Coors Field is live · 1.22×

BAL @ COL

Coors Field · 3:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 8 mph slight_out 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

1:10p

-1 ↑

2:10p

-2 ↑

3:10p

+1 ↑

4:10p

+3 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 5:10p window peaks +3

Best of game Hunter Goodman conv 31 · vs Rogers ⟷ Pete Alonso conv 30 · vs Sugano → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Trevor Rogers LHP · BAL

leak 79

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.18 · leakiest side of this game

1 Hunter Goodman +280 C+ ●●●●●

2 Tj Rumfield +750 D ●●●●○

3 Mickey Moniak +425 C ●●●○○

FADE Tomoyuki Sugano RHP · COL

leak 55

1.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.94 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Alonso +235 B ●●●●●

2 Coby Mayo +255 C+ ●●●○○

3 Colton Cowser +425 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: Match 28.5% · 14D pace 30.8%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Hunter Goodman COOL vs Rogers Edge +280 0.288 · 90.3 · 10.9% 28.6% 32.7% F B O C+ 66

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ vs Sugano +235 0.231 · 94.2 · 13.0% 30.8% 28.5% F B O B 70

· BAL Coby Mayo COOL vs Sugano +255 0.227 · 91.9 · 12.6% 18.2% 21.7% F B O C+ 64

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Sugano Edge +425 0.155 · 88.0 · 11.5% 18.2% 19.2% F B O C 55

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Rogers +425 0.253 · 89.8 · 8.5% 16.7% 17.9% F B O C 55

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Sugano Edge +390 0.183 · 89.8 · 9.4% 7.7% 16.0% F B O C 54

· BAL Samuel Basallo COOL vs Sugano Edge +370 0.199 · 90.4 · 12.4% 0.0% 16.8% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· COL Tj Rumfield vs Rogers +750 0.147 · 84.1 · 5.6% 50.0% 7.0% F B O D 39

· COL Troy Johnston vs Rogers — 0.119 · 89.6 · 4.2% 12.5% 7.2% F B O D 33

· COL Ezequiel Tovar HOT vs Rogers Edge +575 0.124 · 87.5 · 6.9% 10.0% 8.2% F B O D 38

· BAL Jackson Holliday COOL vs Sugano Edge +525 0.117 · 87.1 · 8.6% 8.3% 9.2% F B O D 43

· COL Willi Castro COOL vs Rogers Edge +525 0.155 · 87.6 · 7.6% 7.7% 9.8% F B O D 42

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Sugano Edge +575 0.134 · 88.3 · 7.2% 7.7% 9.2% F B O D 43

· COL Jake Mccarthy vs Rogers +950 0.184 · 85.0 · 6.1% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 42

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Tomoyuki Sugano — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Trevor Rogers — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Mayo Cowser Goodman Moniak Rumfield

Legend

attack side — vs Rogers fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Hunter Goodman +280 · 66

Pete Alonso +235 · 70

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 1.02× Wind 8 mph slight_out 83°F open

↑

6 mph · slight_out

74°F

1:10p

-1

↑

7 mph · cross

77°F

2:10p

-2

↑

7 mph · cross

80°F

3:10p

↑

6 mph · cross

81°F

4:10p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

82°F

5:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.22× 83°F, wind 8 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tomoyuki Sugano · RHP 1.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.94 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 70 B +235 · 1 0.231 94.2 13.0% 31.2%vs RHP 402 21.0% 30.8% 28.5% 32

2 Coby Mayo 64 C+ +255 COOL 10 0.227 91.9 12.6% 10.0%vs RHP 411 17.1% 18.2% 21.7% 22

3 Samuel Basallo 57 C +370 COOL 26 0.199 90.4 12.4% 30.0%vs RHP 399 14.5% 0.0% 16.8% 22

4 Colton Cowser 55 C +425 WARM 35 0.155 88.0 11.5% 21.1%vs RHP 412 16.2% 18.2% 19.2% 25

5 Gunnar Henderson 54 C +390 COOL 41 0.183 89.8 9.4% 17.5%vs RHP 393 14.7% 7.7% 16.0% 34

6 Leody Taveras 43 D +575 · 112 0.134 88.3 7.2% 13.0%vs RHP 403 5.0% 7.7% 9.2% 32

7 Jackson Holliday 43 D +525 COOL 114 0.117 87.1 8.6% 14.3%vs RHP 388 4.9% 8.3% 9.2% 40

vs Trevor Rogers · LHP 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.18 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman 66 C+ +280 COOL 3 0.288 90.3 10.9% 33.3%vs LHP 412 23.9% 28.6% 32.7% 20

2 Mickey Moniak 55 C +425 WARM 36 0.253 89.8 8.5% 17.6%vs LHP 415 16.7% 16.7% 17.9% 31

3 Jake Mccarthy 42 D +950 WARM 115 0.184 85.0 6.1% 26.7%vs LHP 414 10.5% 0.0% 11.4% 43

4 Willi Castro 42 D +525 COOL 116 0.155 87.6 7.6% 13.8%vs LHP 409 11.0% 7.7% 9.8% 29

5 Tj Rumfield 39 D +750 WARM 141 0.147 84.1 5.6% 6.5%vs LHP 410 10.5% 50.0% 7.0% 31

6 Ezequiel Tovar 38 D +575 HOT 148 0.124 87.5 6.9% 5.9%vs LHP 409 7.6% 10.0% 8.2% 18

7 Troy Johnston 33 D — WARM 180 0.119 89.6 4.2% 8.7%vs LHP 411 2.1% 12.5% 7.2% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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