TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ PIT

PNC Park is live · 1.12×

SF @ PIT

PNC Park · 6:40p · 11 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 5 mph slight_out 88°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

6:40p

+2 ↑

7:40p

+1 ↑

8:40p

+2 ↑

9:40p

+2 ↑

10:40p

the 6:40p window peaks +2

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 36 · vs Jones ⟷ Brandon Lowe conv 28 · vs Roupp → edge: Rafael Devers

ATTACK Jared Jones RHP · PIT

leak 92

1.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.59 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers +475 C+ ●●●●●

2 Drew Gilbert +850 D ●●●○○

3 Bryce Eldridge +425 D ●●○○○

FADE Landen Roupp RHP · SF

leak 24

0.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.19 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Lowe +500 C ●●●●○

2 Oneil Cruz +525 C ●●●●○

3 Jared Triolo — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rafael Devers: Match 29.8% · 14D pace 42.9% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Rafael Devers ✶ vs Jones Edge +475 0.238 · 92.8 · 9.3% 42.9% 29.8% F B O C+ 60

· PIT Brandon Lowe COOL vs Roupp Edge +500 0.225 · 91.1 · 8.0% 33.3% 23.4% F B O C 53

· PIT Oneil Cruz COOL vs Roupp Edge +525 0.221 · 95.5 · 9.8% 20.0% 25.6% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· SF Drew Gilbert HOT vs Jones Edge +850 0.146 · 86.8 · 6.6% 18.2% 16.1% F B O D 39

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Jones Edge +425 0.187 · 92.5 · 9.7% 9.1% 12.6% F B O D 49

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Roupp — 0.072 · 86.9 · 3.8% 10.0% 7.0% F B O D 26

· PIT Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Roupp Edge +700 0.158 · 90.7 · 7.6% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 39

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Jones Edge +950 0.131 · 87.3 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 32

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Roupp Edge +750 0.136 · 86.9 · 6.0% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 34

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Roupp — 0.089 · 86.1 · 3.9% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 26

· PIT Jake Mangum COOL vs Roupp Edge — 0.086 · 85.5 · 3.3% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Jared Jones — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Landen Roupp — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Gilbert Cruz Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Jones fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Rafael Devers +475 · 60

Brandon Lowe +500 · 53

Oneil Cruz +525 · 55

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 5 mph slight_out 88°F open

↑

6 mph · slight_out

83°F

6:40p · peak

↑

5 mph · slight_out

82°F

7:40p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

81°F

8:40p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

80°F

9:40p

↑

4 mph · out

79°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.12× 88°F, wind 5 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jared Jones · RHP 1.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.59 · 4 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 60 C+ +475 WARM 20 0.238 92.8 9.3% 27.6%vs RHP 399 20.8% 42.9% 29.8% 38

2 Bryce Eldridge 49 D +425 WARM 69 0.187 92.5 9.7% 19.2%vs RHP 399 18.8% 9.1% 12.6% 28

3 Drew Gilbert 39 D +850 HOT 136 0.146 86.8 6.6% 16.7%vs RHP 394 7.0% 18.2% 16.1% 23

4 Jung Hoo Lee 32 D +950 WARM 184 0.131 87.3 4.5% 10.3%vs RHP 382 5.6% 0.0% 7.8% 36

vs Landen Roupp · RHP 0.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.19 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Oneil Cruz 55 C +525 COOL 33 0.221 95.5 9.8% 39.4%vs RHP 413 23.9% 20.0% 25.6% 22

2 Brandon Lowe 53 C +500 COOL 49 0.225 91.1 8.0% 27.4%vs RHP 390 17.7% 33.3% 23.4% 14

3 Bryan Reynolds 39 D +700 COOL 137 0.158 90.7 7.6% 15.2%vs RHP 409 10.4% 0.0% 8.4% 31

4 Spencer Horwitz 34 D +750 COOL 177 0.136 86.9 6.0% 13.9%vs RHP 395 9.2% 0.0% 7.1% 27

5 Nick Gonzales 26 D — COOL 205 0.089 86.1 3.9% 9.8%vs RHP 397 6.2% 0.0% 7.1% 27

6 Jared Triolo 26 D — COOL 206 0.072 86.9 3.8% 8.3%vs RHP 409 2.6% 10.0% 7.0% 26

7 Jake Mangum 25 D — COOL 207 0.086 85.5 3.3% 10.0%vs RHP 393 4.4% 0.0% 6.5% 15

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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