TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ MIN

Neutral air · 1.04×

DET @ MIN

Target Field · 7:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 3 mph cross 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

6:40p

+1 ↑

7:40p

-2 ↑

8:40p

-4 ↑

9:40p

-5 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +3

Best of game Hao-Yu Lee conv 16 · vs Kremer ⟷ Brooks Lee conv 27 · vs Anderson → edge: Kody Clemens

ATTACK Dean Kremer RHP · BAL

leak 95

2.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.46 · leakiest side of this game

1 Hao-Yu Lee — D ●●●○○

2 Dillon Dingler +500 C ●○○○○

3 Riley Greene +370 C ●○○○○

FADE Drew Anderson RHP · DET

leak 78

1.37 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.56 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brooks Lee +700 D ●●●●○

2 Kody Clemens +400 C ●●●○○

3 Luke Keaschall +850 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kody Clemens: Match 19.5% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIN Kody Clemens ✶ vs Anderson Edge +400 0.228 · 92.4 · 9.7% 25.0% 19.5% F B O C 56

· — Dillon Dingler COOL vs Kremer +500 0.220 · 88.4 · 8.9% 0.0% 16.8% F B O C 53

· — Riley Greene vs Kremer +370 0.177 · 90.5 · 10.7% 0.0% 14.7% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· MIN Brooks Lee HOT vs Anderson Edge +700 0.188 · 88.1 · 5.7% 33.3% 20.9% F B O D 47

· — Hao-Yu Lee HOT vs Kremer — 0.156 · 89.6 · 8.2% 16.7% 16.3% F B O D 47

· MIN Luke Keaschall HOT vs Anderson +850 0.118 · 85.4 · 5.3% 16.7% 8.6% F B O D 34

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Anderson +425 0.162 · 89.8 · 9.3% 8.3% 11.3% F B O D 45

· MIN Trevor Larnach COOL vs Anderson Edge +750 0.155 · 87.6 · 7.7% 10.0% 9.3% F B O D 41

· — Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Kremer +425 0.182 · 89.3 · 9.8% 0.0% 13.3% F B O D 49

· MIN Josh Bell COOL vs Anderson Edge +500 0.164 · 89.7 · 8.7% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 43

· — Colt Keith vs Kremer Edge +525 0.144 · 89.0 · 7.7% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 41

· — Kevin Mcgonigle HOT vs Kremer Edge +500 0.140 · 88.2 · 7.5% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 41

· — Gleyber Torres vs Kremer +850 0.120 · 86.2 · 7.4% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 38

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Anderson Edge — 0.102 · 89.5 · 7.2% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 32

· — Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Kremer Edge +950 0.098 · 85.7 · 4.2% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Drew Anderson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Dean Kremer — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Clemens Lee Lee

Legend

attack side — vs Kremer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kody Clemens +400 · 56

Brooks Lee +700 · 47

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 3 mph cross 79°F open

↑

5 mph · out

76°F

6:40p · peak

↑

6 mph · slight_out

75°F

7:40p

-2

↑

6 mph · cross

73°F

8:40p

-4

↑

6 mph · cross

71°F

9:40p

-5

↑

6 mph · cross

70°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 79°F, wind 3 mph NE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Drew Anderson · RHP 1.37 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.56 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens ✶ 56 C +400 WARM 30 0.228 92.4 9.7% 19.5%vs RHP 391 18.5% 25.0% 19.5% 30

2 Brooks Lee 47 D +700 HOT 81 0.188 88.1 5.7% 22.9%vs RHP 372 16.5% 33.3% 20.9% 39

3 Royce Lewis 45 D +425 COOL 101 0.162 89.8 9.3% 16.1%vs RHP 400 14.7% 8.3% 11.3% 35

4 Josh Bell 43 D +500 COOL 108 0.164 89.7 8.7% 19.7%vs RHP 407 10.9% 0.0% 10.4% 34

5 Trevor Larnach 41 D +750 COOL 127 0.155 87.6 7.7% 15.5%vs RHP 395 9.3% 10.0% 9.3% 23

6 Luke Keaschall 34 D +850 HOT 173 0.118 85.4 5.3% 9.3%vs RHP 378 7.5% 16.7% 8.6% 39

7 Victor Caratini 32 D — COOL 181 0.102 89.5 7.2% 13.9%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 10

vs Dean Kremer · RHP 2.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.46 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 53 C +500 COOL 47 0.220 88.4 8.9% 27.9%vs RHP 398 18.1% 0.0% 16.8% 25

2 Riley Greene 50 C +370 · 66 0.177 90.5 10.7% 17.9%vs RHP 399 12.0% 0.0% 14.7% 0

3 Spencer Torkelson 49 D +425 COOL 68 0.182 89.3 9.8% 23.6%vs RHP 394 13.6% 0.0% 13.3% 12

4 Hao-Yu Lee 47 D — HOT 80 0.156 89.6 8.2% 22.7%vs RHP 393 18.2% 16.7% 16.3% 28

5 Kevin Mcgonigle 41 D +500 HOT 126 0.140 88.2 7.5% 9.8%vs RHP 397 20.0% 0.0% 8.5% 38

6 Colt Keith 41 D +525 WARM 128 0.144 89.0 7.7% 13.2%vs RHP 385 6.4% 0.0% 9.2% 15

7 Gleyber Torres 38 D +850 · 147 0.120 86.2 7.4% 14.3%vs RHP 393 8.8% 0.0% 8.5% 32

8 Zach Mckinstry 30 D +950 COOL 195 0.098 85.7 4.2% 5.9%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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