TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ BAL

Neutral air · 1.01×

TB @ BAL

Camden Yards · 7:05p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind 6 mph slight_out 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

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7:05p

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9:05p

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10:05p

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the 7:05p window peaks +2

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 18 · vs Young ⟷ Pete Alonso conv 34 · vs McClanahan → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Brandon Young RHP · BAL

leak 87

1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero +305 C+ ●●●○○

2 Yandy Diaz +575 D ●●○○○

3 Taylor Walls +950 D ●○○○○

FADE Shane McClanahan LHP · TB

leak 18

0.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.39 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Alonso +350 C+ ●●●●●

2 Colton Cowser — D ●●●●○

3 Coby Mayo +400 C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: Match 22.7% · 14D pace 46.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ vs McClanahan Edge +350 0.229 · 94.2 · 10.9% 46.2% 22.7% F B O C+ 62

· BAL Coby Mayo COOL vs McClanahan Edge +400 0.228 · 92.2 · 10.1% 20.0% 25.5% F B O C 56

· TB Junior Caminero COOL vs Young +305 0.258 · 92.7 · 9.6% 15.4% 21.1% F B O C+ 61

· BAL Samuel Basallo COOL vs McClanahan +575 0.204 · 91.3 · 10.5% 0.0% 16.5% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· BAL Colton Cowser vs McClanahan — 0.140 · 87.2 · 9.8% 37.5% 17.1% F B O D 47

· BAL Gunnar Henderson vs McClanahan +575 0.177 · 89.9 · 8.0% 15.4% 12.6% F B O D 47

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Young +575 0.166 · 91.0 · 7.0% 0.0% 20.2% F B O D 42

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Young Edge +950 0.078 · 85.4 · 3.9% 9.1% 7.8% F B O D 30

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs McClanahan Edge — 0.133 · 87.8 · 6.1% 9.1% 6.7% F B O D 36

· BAL Jackson Holliday COOL vs McClanahan +850 0.128 · 87.4 · 8.1% 7.7% 7.1% F B O D 38

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Young Edge +500 0.146 · 87.7 · 4.9% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 39

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Young — 0.101 · 85.2 · 3.9% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 32

· TB Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Young Edge +500 0.137 · 91.0 · 8.4% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 43

· TB Richie Palacios vs Young Edge +850 0.115 · 86.4 · 5.2% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 35

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Young Edge — 0.056 · 83.8 · — 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 19

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.6% ← leak BRK 27.2% OFF 19.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R

16.0% 11.5% 7.7% 13.3% C+ 61 +305

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

102

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

10.6% 13.2% 4.7% 10.1% D 43 +500

103

Yandy Diaz R

5.8% 10.7% 4.0% 7.1% D 42 +575

142

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.2% 3.1% 8.1% 3.8% D 39 +500

172

Richie Palacios L Edge

4.8% 1.8% 3.1% 3.7% D 35 +850

190

Nick Fortes R

2.8% 1.8% 0.0% 2.2% D 32 —

197

Taylor Walls S Edge

3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% D 30 +950

208

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 19 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.6% usage) carries Young's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 38.2% BRK 32.9% OFF 29.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Pete Alonso R Edge

15.4% 11.1% 15.0% 14.1% C+ 62 +350

Coby Mayo R Edge

10.8% 13.6% 14.3% 12.2% C 56 +400

Samuel Basallo L

14.9% 11.5% 11.4% 13.1% C 51 +575

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Colton Cowser L

14.6% 14.0% 2.1% 11.0% D 47 —

Gunnar Henderson L

7.7% 6.4% 7.6% 7.3% D 47 +575

150

Jackson Holliday L

8.0% 5.0% 8.1% 7.3% D 38 +850

165

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.8% 7.1% 0.0% 4.2% D 36 —

Read the columns: no single family leads McClanahan's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Alonso Mayo Cowser Henderson

Legend

attack side — vs Young fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Pete Alonso +350 · 62

Coby Mayo +400 · 56

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.01× Wind 6 mph slight_out 71°F open

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6 mph · slight_out

71°F

7:05p · peak

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5 mph · slight_out

70°F

8:05p

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5 mph · slight_out

69°F

9:05p

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5 mph · slight_out

67°F

10:05p

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6 mph · slight_out

66°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.01× 71°F, wind 6 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brandon Young · RHP 1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero 61 C+ +305 COOL 16 0.258 92.7 9.6% 40.0%vs RHP 413 25.6% 15.4% 21.1% 41

2 Jonathan Aranda 43 D +500 COOL 102 0.137 91.0 8.4% 15.8%vs RHP 386 10.9% 0.0% 8.2% 38

3 Yandy Diaz 42 D +575 · 103 0.166 91.0 7.0% 25.5%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 20.2% 50

4 Cedric Mullins 39 D +500 COOL 142 0.146 87.7 4.9% 18.1%vs RHP 389 11.9% 0.0% 9.0% 31

5 Richie Palacios 35 D +850 WARM 172 0.115 86.4 5.2% 11.9%vs RHP 398 4.2% 0.0% 7.5% 31

6 Nick Fortes 32 D — COOL 190 0.101 85.2 3.9% 14.3%vs RHP 396 4.4% 0.0% 8.6% 11

7 Taylor Walls 30 D +950 COOL 197 0.078 85.4 3.9% 2.6%vs RHP 383 1.0% 9.1% 7.8% 33

8 Chandler Simpson 19 D — COOL 208 0.056 83.8 — 2.5%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 50

vs Shane McClanahan · LHP 0.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.39 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 62 C+ +350 WARM 13 0.229 94.2 10.9% 17.5%vs LHP 400 21.1% 46.2% 22.7% 41

2 Coby Mayo 56 C +400 COOL 25 0.228 92.2 10.1% 41.9%vs LHP 411 16.7% 20.0% 25.5% 27

3 Samuel Basallo 51 C +575 COOL 45 0.204 91.3 10.5% 22.2%vs LHP 398 16.0% 0.0% 16.5% 7

4 Colton Cowser 47 D — WARM 70 0.140 87.2 9.8% 33.3%vs LHP 417 15.2% 37.5% 17.1% 20

5 Gunnar Henderson 47 D +575 · 71 0.177 89.9 8.0% 28.0%vs LHP 391 15.1% 15.4% 12.6% 39

6 Jackson Holliday 38 D +850 COOL 150 0.128 87.4 8.1% 9.1%vs LHP 388 4.2% 7.7% 7.1% 45

7 Leody Taveras 36 D — COOL 165 0.133 87.8 6.1% 7.1%vs LHP 405 4.4% 9.1% 6.7% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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