TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ MIL

Playable air · 1.09×

ATL @ MIL

American Family Field · 2:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.91× Wind 12 mph out 73°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+10 ↑

1:10p

+11 ↑

2:10p

+12 ↑

3:10p

+12 ↑

4:10p

+8 ↑

5:10p

the 3:10p window peaks +12

Best of game Matt Olson conv 27 · vs Henderson ⟷ Christian Yelich conv 18 · vs Pérez → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Logan Henderson RHP · MIL

leak 91

1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.50 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson +255 C+ ●●●●○

2 Drake Baldwin +330 D ●●○○○

3 Ozzie Albies +525 D ●○○○○

FADE Martín Pérez LHP · ATL

leak 87

0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · stingy — thin edge

1 Christian Yelich — D ●●●○○

2 Jake Bauers +500 C ●●●○○

3 Joey Ortiz +850 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: Match 31.4% · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Henderson Edge +255 0.280 · 92.5 · 11.5% 23.1% 31.4% F B O C+ 62

· MIL Jake Bauers vs Pérez +500 0.229 · 92.5 · 8.7% 15.4% 19.2% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Pérez — 0.142 · 88.8 · 7.4% 22.2% 14.0% F B O D 39

· MIL Joey Ortiz HOT vs Pérez Edge +850 0.129 · 88.2 · 4.8% 20.0% 12.0% F B O D 35

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Pérez — 0.159 · 92.6 · 8.4% 14.3% 10.1% F B O D 41

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Pérez Edge +425 0.189 · 92.0 · 8.5% 7.7% 12.6% F B O D 46

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Henderson Edge +330 0.177 · 91.7 · 10.6% 7.7% 12.3% F B O D 46

· ATL Ozzie Albies COOL vs Henderson Edge +525 0.169 · 86.9 · 6.0% 7.7% 10.1% F B O D 38

· ATL Austin Riley vs Henderson +500 0.147 · 91.3 · 10.3% 7.7% 9.9% F B O D 41

· MIL William Contreras HOT vs Pérez Edge +625 0.124 · 90.0 · 6.6% 8.3% 6.9% F B O D 35

· ATL Ronald Acuna COOL vs Henderson — 0.185 · 90.3 · 10.6% 0.0% 14.5% F B O D 41

· ATL Michael Harris COOL vs Henderson Edge — 0.193 · 90.7 · 9.5% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 40

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Henderson Edge +575 0.160 · 90.6 · 7.8% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 38

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Pérez +750 0.176 · 90.5 · 6.7% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 40

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Henderson Edge +850 0.126 · 87.8 · 6.9% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 33

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Henderson +850 0.126 · 86.9 · 5.7% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 64.0% OFF 32.6% BRK 3.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Matt Olson L Edge

18.2% 11.6% 12.0% 15.5% C+ 62 +255

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Drake Baldwin L Edge

12.7% 4.2% 20.0% 13.2% D 46 +330

114

Ronald Acuna R

12.9% 15.4% 10.9% 12.8% D 41 —

119

Austin Riley R

13.1% 5.4% 14.0% 12.4% D 41 +500

128

Michael Harris L Edge

6.9% 13.8% 13.4% 10.4% D 40 —

147

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

7.6% 5.9% 7.5% 7.3% D 38 +575

148

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.6% 2.8% 1.7% 4.2% D 38 +525

183

Dominic Smith L Edge

5.8% 2.5% 7.4% 5.6% D 33 +850

201

Mauricio Dubon R

3.2% 4.8% 5.5% 4.1% D 28 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Henderson's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 62.0% ← leak OFF 30.2% BRK 7.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jake Bauers L

14.6% 13.5% 12.8% 14.0% C 52 +500

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jackson Chourio R Edge

13.5% 6.1% 14.1% 12.8% D 46 +425

117

Garrett Mitchell L

15.5% 6.1% 11.4% 12.9% D 41 —

130

Brice Turang L

9.0% 1.6% 9.6% 7.8% D 40 +750

137

Christian Yelich L

9.7% 14.8% 8.8% 10.0% D 39 —

167

Joey Ortiz R Edge

4.3% 0.0% 5.6% 4.5% D 35 +850

173

William Contreras R Edge

8.3% 0.0% 9.3% 7.8% D 35 +625

Read the columns: the fastball family (62.0% usage) carries Pérez's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Bauers Yelich Ortiz

Legend

attack side — vs Henderson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Matt Olson +255 · 62

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.91× Wind 12 mph out 73°F retractable

+10

↑

12 mph · out

74°F

1:10p

+11

↑

13 mph · out

74°F

2:10p

+12

↑

14 mph · out

75°F

3:10p · peak

+12

↑

14 mph · out

75°F

4:10p

↑

12 mph · out

74°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.09× 73°F, wind 12 mph NW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Logan Henderson · RHP 1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.50 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 62 C+ +255 WARM 12 0.280 92.5 11.5% 34.3%vs RHP 408 24.6% 23.1% 31.4% 30

2 Drake Baldwin 46 D +330 COOL 78 0.177 91.7 10.6% 25.0%vs RHP 403 16.5% 7.7% 12.3% 43

3 Ronald Acuna 41 D — COOL 114 0.185 90.3 10.6% 23.1%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 14.5% 37

4 Austin Riley 41 D +500 WARM 119 0.147 91.3 10.3% 17.8%vs RHP 407 9.4% 7.7% 9.9% 26

5 Michael Harris 40 D — COOL 128 0.193 90.7 9.5% 22.4%vs RHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 38

6 Mike Yastrzemski 38 D +575 WARM 147 0.160 90.6 7.8% 18.6%vs RHP 389 8.5% 0.0% 10.4% 20

7 Ozzie Albies 38 D +525 COOL 148 0.169 86.9 6.0% 12.9%vs RHP 386 14.0% 7.7% 10.1% 41

8 Dominic Smith 33 D +850 COOL 183 0.126 87.8 6.9% 14.5%vs RHP 392 8.0% 0.0% 8.0% 9

9 Mauricio Dubon 28 D +850 COOL 201 0.126 86.9 5.7% 10.2%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 36

vs Martín Pérez · LHP 0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 52 C +500 · 37 0.229 92.5 8.7% 20.8%vs LHP 401 19.2% 15.4% 19.2% 31

2 Jackson Chourio 46 D +425 · 77 0.189 92.0 8.5% 31.2%vs LHP 401 15.7% 7.7% 12.6% 34

3 Garrett Mitchell 41 D — COOL 117 0.159 92.6 8.4% 20.0%vs LHP 415 7.9% 14.3% 10.1% 22

4 Brice Turang 40 D +750 COOL 130 0.176 90.5 6.7% 5.6%vs LHP 407 10.6% 0.0% 9.0% 25

5 Christian Yelich 39 D — WARM 137 0.142 88.8 7.4% 16.7%vs LHP 401 8.1% 22.2% 14.0% 25

6 Joey Ortiz 35 D +850 HOT 167 0.129 88.2 4.8% 13.3%vs LHP 391 7.1% 20.0% 12.0% 22

7 William Contreras 35 D +625 HOT 173 0.124 90.0 6.6% 11.1%vs LHP 415 9.5% 8.3% 6.9% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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