TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ TEX

Globe Life Field is live · 1.34×

LAA @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 7:05p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.03× Wind 4 mph in 97°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

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6:05p

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8:05p

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the 6:05p window peaks +0

Best of game Corey Seager conv 24 · vs Johnson ⟷ Josh Lowe conv 14 · vs Bradford → edge: Corey Seager

ATTACK Ryan Johnson RHP · LAA

leak 89

2.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.34 · leakiest side of this game

1 Corey Seager +320 C+ ●●●●○

2 Joc Pederson +350 C+ ●●●○○

3 Jake Burger +425 C ●●●○○

FADE Cody Bradford LHP · TEX

leak 3

0.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.24 · stingy — thin edge

1 Josh Lowe +625 D ●●○○○

2 Mike Trout +390 C ●○○○○

3 Zach Neto +390 C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Corey Seager: 15.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Corey Seager ✶ vs Johnson Edge +320 0.197 · 91.5 · 12.9% 25.0% 23.5% F B O C+ 63

· TEX Joc Pederson vs Johnson Edge +350 0.244 · 92.2 · 11.0% 12.5% 25.2% F B O C+ 65

· TEX Jake Burger COOL vs Johnson +425 0.183 · 89.9 · 10.8% 16.7% 19.7% F B O C 58

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Johnson +425 0.203 · 89.4 · 9.2% 7.7% 15.7% F B O C 55

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Johnson Edge +400 0.161 · 92.3 · 10.7% 7.7% 10.6% F B O C 53

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Bradford Edge +390 0.195 · 90.2 · 11.9% 7.7% 9.7% F B O C 53

· LAA Zach Neto COOL vs Bradford Edge +390 0.191 · 89.3 · 10.2% 7.7% 9.4% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· LAA Josh Lowe COOL vs Bradford +625 0.153 · 89.5 · 8.9% 15.4% 11.8% F B O D 46

· TEX Ezequiel Duran COOL vs Johnson +750 0.169 · 88.5 · 8.2% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 49

· TEX Evan Carter vs Johnson Edge +700 0.125 · 87.8 · 7.9% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 44

· LAA Nolan Schanuel COOL vs Bradford +950 0.109 · 87.6 · 4.6% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 33

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Bradford Edge +625 0.124 · 87.6 · 7.8% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 39

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Bradford Edge +750 0.128 · 88.0 · 7.6% 0.0% 4.8% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 49.5% ← leak OFF 36.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Mike Trout R Edge

14.5% 11.1% 15.6% C 53 +390

Zach Neto R Edge

14.1% 9.8% 11.6% C 51 +390

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Josh Lowe L

11.4% 5.6% 8.5% D 46 +625

145

Oswald Peraza R Edge

6.1% 10.3% 6.9% D 39 +625

146

Vaughn Grissom R Edge

8.3% 0.0% 6.2% D 39 +750

184

Nolan Schanuel L

2.5% 0.0% 2.4% D 33 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.5% usage) carries Bradford's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 57.2% ← leak OFF 23.3% BRK 19.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Joc Pederson L Edge

14.0% 3.4% 12.3% 11.1% C+ 65 +350

Corey Seager L Edge

14.6% 17.6% 14.3% 15.1% C+ 63 +320

Jake Burger R

10.1% 11.4% 11.7% 10.8% C 58 +425

Wyatt Langford R

5.2% 13.6% 10.6% 7.7% C 55 +425

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

8.1% 7.8% 16.7% 10.3% C 53 +400

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Ezequiel Duran R

8.0% 0.0% 5.5% 6.2% D 49 +750

Evan Carter L Edge

7.7% 0.0% 4.3% 5.7% D 44 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.2% usage) carries Johnson's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lowe Pederson Seager Burger

Legend

attack side — vs Johnson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Corey Seager +320 · 63

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 6:05p · roof retractable

Park 1.03× Wind 4 mph in 97°F retractable

↑

4 mph · in

97°F

6:05p · peak

-2

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5 mph · in

96°F

7:05p

-2

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6 mph · in

93°F

8:05p

-2

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8 mph · cross

91°F

9:05p

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10 mph · cross

89°F

10:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.34× 97°F, wind 4 mph NE (in) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cody Bradford · LHP 0.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.24 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 53 C +390 COOL 33 0.195 90.2 11.9% 18.5%vs LHP 409 15.0% 7.7% 9.7% 32

2 Zach Neto 51 C +390 COOL 46 0.191 89.3 10.2% 17.1%vs LHP 402 15.6% 7.7% 9.4% 37

3 Josh Lowe 46 D +625 COOL 79 0.153 89.5 8.9% 0.0%vs LHP 397 10.5% 15.4% 11.8% 22

4 Oswald Peraza 39 D +625 COOL 145 0.124 87.6 7.8% 22.7%vs LHP 386 5.5% 0.0% 6.9% 12

5 Vaughn Grissom 39 D +750 COOL 146 0.128 88.0 7.6% 0.0%vs LHP 390 8.1% 0.0% 4.8% 28

6 Nolan Schanuel 33 D +950 COOL 184 0.109 87.6 4.6% 12.5%vs LHP 375 6.5% 0.0% 7.5% 36

vs Ryan Johnson · RHP 2.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.34 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson 65 C+ +350 WARM 7 0.244 92.2 11.0% 30.1%vs RHP 396 21.6% 12.5% 25.2% 16

2 Corey Seager ✶ 63 C+ +320 · 11 0.197 91.5 12.9% 21.7%vs RHP 395 17.4% 25.0% 23.5% 38

3 Jake Burger 58 C +425 COOL 21 0.183 89.9 10.8% 22.4%vs RHP 400 15.7% 16.7% 19.7% 29

4 Wyatt Langford 55 C +425 COOL 28 0.203 89.4 9.2% 22.7%vs RHP 398 15.7% 7.7% 15.7% 34

5 Brandon Nimmo 53 C +400 COOL 35 0.161 92.3 10.7% 12.2%vs RHP 403 10.2% 7.7% 10.6% 39

6 Ezequiel Duran 49 D +750 COOL 57 0.169 88.5 8.2% 20.8%vs RHP 393 11.6% 0.0% 12.8% 34

7 Evan Carter 44 D +700 · 93 0.125 87.8 7.9% 12.1%vs RHP 374 7.3% 0.0% 8.6% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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