TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.74×

ATH @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 7:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.16× Wind 11 mph out 96°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+17 ↑

6:10p

+21 ↑

7:10p

+19 ↑

8:10p

+17 ↑

9:10p

+16 ↑

10:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +21

Best of game Lawrence Butler conv 25 · vs Brown ⟷ Cam Smith conv 21 · vs Lopez → edge: Yordan Alvarez

ATTACK Hunter Brown RHP · HOU

leak 91

1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.63 · leakiest side of this game

1 Lawrence Butler +850 C ●●●●○

2 Jeff Mcneil +950 D ●●●○○

3 Henry Bolte +750 D ●●○○○

FADE Jacob Lopez LHP · ATH

leak 64

1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · stingy — thin edge

1 Cam Smith +500 C ●●●○○

2 Christian Walker +390 C ●●○○○

3 Jeremy Peña +500 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Yordan Alvarez: 17.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Brown Edge +850 0.138 · 89.5 · 7.2% 30.8% 19.4% F B O C 51

· HOU Cam Smith vs Lopez Edge +500 0.176 · 89.3 · 8.1% 18.2% 23.2% F B O C 57

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Lopez Edge +390 0.210 · 89.4 · 7.3% 10.0% 17.8% F B O C 59

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Lopez Edge +500 0.186 · 88.3 · 5.5% 10.0% 12.3% F B O C 52

· HOU Yordan Alvarez ✶ COOL vs Lopez +265 0.296 · 94.5 · 10.0% 0.0% 19.2% F B O C+ 65

· ATH Jonah Heim vs Brown Edge +750 0.180 · 87.7 · 6.9% 0.0% 12.1% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· ATH Jeff Mcneil HOT vs Brown Edge +950 0.096 · 86.6 · 3.6% 25.0% 9.7% F B O D 39

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Brown +750 0.098 · 90.9 · 7.0% 15.4% 8.7% F B O D 46

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Lopez Edge +500 0.162 · 86.1 · 5.5% 8.3% 10.0% F B O D 49

· HOU Christian Vazquez vs Lopez Edge — 0.130 · 85.9 · 3.2% 0.0% 14.8% F B O D 41

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Brown Edge +850 0.146 · 89.5 · 6.6% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 46

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Lopez Edge +525 0.150 · 85.1 · 5.3% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 43

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Lopez Edge +625 0.139 · 87.7 · 5.4% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 46

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 62.2% ← leak BRK 28.2% OFF 9.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Lawrence Butler L Edge

8.1% 9.6% 3.7% 7.4% C 51 +850

Jonah Heim S Edge

7.1% 3.8% 9.8% 6.9% C 50 +750

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Carlos Cortes L Edge

7.1% 3.8% 7.7% 6.5% D 46 +850

Henry Bolte R

7.6% 7.8% 3.8% 7.2% D 46 +750

138

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

1.7% 3.2% 1.5% 1.9% D 39 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (62.2% usage) carries Brown's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 58.7% ← leak BRK 32.8% OFF 8.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Yordan Alvarez L

17.7% 22.2% 9.6% 17.3% C+ 65 +265

Christian Walker R Edge

7.9% 10.3% 13.9% 9.3% C 59 +390

Cam Smith R Edge

9.5% 15.7% 16.1% 11.6% C 57 +500

Jeremy Peña R Edge

4.0% 6.8% 10.0% 5.3% C 52 +500

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Isaac Paredes R Edge

7.1% 3.0% 1.9% 5.3% D 49 +500

Yainer Diaz R Edge

6.0% 2.9% 6.5% 5.0% D 46 +625

Jose Altuve R Edge

5.8% 4.6% 0.0% 4.9% D 43 +525

110

Christian Vazquez R Edge

3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% D 41 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.7% usage) carries Lopez's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Butler Mcneil Alvarez Walker Smith

Legend

attack side — vs Brown fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Lawrence Butler +850 · 51

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 6:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.16× Wind 11 mph out 96°F retractable

+17

↑

11 mph · out

96°F

6:10p

+21

↑

14 mph · out

95°F

7:10p · peak

+19

↑

12 mph · out

92°F

8:10p

+17

↑

11 mph · out

88°F

9:10p

+16

↑

10 mph · out

85°F

10:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.74× 96°F, wind 11 mph SE (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Hunter Brown · RHP 1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.63 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Lawrence Butler 51 C +850 WARM 43 0.138 89.5 7.2% 20.0%vs RHP 409 8.3% 30.8% 19.4% 38

2 Jonah Heim 50 C +750 · 51 0.180 87.7 6.9% 5.6%vs RHP 414 8.7% 0.0% 12.1% 30

3 Carlos Cortes 46 D +850 COOL 81 0.146 89.5 6.6% 14.3%vs RHP 403 4.5% 0.0% 11.3% 25

4 Henry Bolte 46 D +750 · 83 0.098 90.9 7.0% 4.5%vs RHP 410 10.4% 15.4% 8.7% 40

5 Jeff Mcneil 39 D +950 HOT 138 0.096 86.6 3.6% 11.3%vs RHP 381 5.4% 25.0% 9.7% 41

vs Jacob Lopez · LHP 1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez ✶ 65 C+ +265 COOL 6 0.296 94.5 10.0% 23.7%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 19.2% 33

2 Christian Walker 59 C +390 COOL 19 0.210 89.4 7.3% 26.3%vs LHP 392 17.6% 10.0% 17.8% 27

3 Cam Smith 57 C +500 · 23 0.176 89.3 8.1% 23.1%vs LHP 408 13.2% 18.2% 23.2% 25

4 Jeremy Peña 52 C +500 · 41 0.186 88.3 5.5% 7.7%vs LHP 384 14.7% 10.0% 12.3% 27

5 Isaac Paredes 49 D +500 COOL 58 0.162 86.1 5.5% 3.9%vs LHP 379 11.5% 8.3% 10.0% 42

6 Yainer Diaz 46 D +625 WARM 85 0.139 87.7 5.4% 0.0%vs LHP 398 9.9% 0.0% 7.9% 20

7 Jose Altuve 43 D +525 COOL 95 0.150 85.1 5.3% 14.3%vs LHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 29

8 Christian Vazquez 41 D — WARM 110 0.130 85.9 3.2% 8.3%vs LHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 14.8% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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