TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ KC

Neutral air · 1.00×

DET @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 7:15p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 5 mph in 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

6:15p

-3 ↑

7:15p

-3 ↑

8:15p

-5 ↑

9:15p

-6 ↑

10:15p

best window is early — 6:15p at -3

Best of game Colt Keith conv 10 · vs Wacha ⟷ Vinnie Pasquantino conv 27 · vs Anderson → edge: Jac Caglianone

ATTACK Michael Wacha RHP · KC

leak 90

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Colt Keith +700 D ●●○○○

2 Dillon Dingler +500 C ●○○○○

3 Gleyber Torres +700 D ●○○○○

FADE Drew Anderson RHP · DET

leak 79

1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.49 · stingy — thin edge

1 Vinnie Pasquantino +625 D ●●●●○

2 Jac Caglianone +575 C ●●●●○

3 Michael Massey +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jac Caglianone: Match 27.4% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Jac Caglianone ✶ vs Anderson Edge +575 0.216 · 93.2 · 10.8% 25.0% 27.4% F B O C 58

· DET Dillon Dingler COOL vs Wacha +500 0.235 · 88.9 · 8.7% 0.0% 18.8% F B O C 54

· DET Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Wacha +390 0.187 · 89.3 · 9.6% 0.0% 13.9% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino HOT vs Anderson Edge +625 0.123 · 89.0 · 7.3% 40.0% 13.7% F B O D 42

· KC Michael Massey vs Anderson Edge +750 0.169 · 89.8 · 7.1% 16.7% 12.3% F B O D 44

· DET Colt Keith vs Wacha Edge +700 0.150 · 88.8 · 7.0% 12.5% 8.4% F B O D 41

· KC Bobby Witt COOL vs Anderson — 0.177 · 92.6 · 9.7% 0.0% 20.8% F B O D 48

· KC Carter Jensen vs Anderson Edge +525 0.179 · 90.6 · 9.0% 9.1% 11.7% F B O D 48

· DET Gleyber Torres COOL vs Wacha +700 0.130 · 86.1 · 7.1% 8.3% 8.8% F B O D 40

· KC Salvador Perez COOL vs Anderson +575 0.148 · 88.9 · 8.8% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 40

· KC Nick Loftin COOL vs Anderson +850 0.142 · 86.9 · 5.7% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 38

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle vs Wacha Edge +625 0.141 · 88.1 · 6.9% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 40

· KC Isaac Collins vs Anderson Edge +850 0.121 · 88.6 · 6.7% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 37

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Wacha Edge +950 0.104 · 85.7 · 4.2% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 57.1% ← leak OFF 24.3% BRK 18.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Dillon Dingler R

12.1% 6.5% 8.6% 10.5% C 54 +500

Spencer Torkelson R

13.5% 12.5% 11.0% 12.8% C 50 +390

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

121

Colt Keith L Edge

6.3% 3.2% 15.2% 7.1% D 41 +700

127

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

8.3% 1.5% 6.4% 6.8% D 40 +625

132

Gleyber Torres R

8.3% 0.0% 5.4% 6.8% D 40 +700

191

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

3.3% 0.0% 1.6% 2.4% D 31 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.1% usage) carries Wacha's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 41.3% OFF 30.6% BRK 28.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jac Caglianone L Edge

13.0% 11.5% 17.8% 14.3% C 58 +575

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Bobby Witt R

12.6% 12.8% 10.2% 11.7% D 48 —

Carter Jensen L Edge

9.9% 9.6% 11.0% 10.2% D 48 +525

Michael Massey L Edge

7.6% 1.8% 7.0% 6.2% D 44 +750

105

Vinnie Pasquantino L Edge

7.5% 9.1% 5.0% 7.1% D 42 +625

125

Salvador Perez R

13.7% 8.6% 6.3% 9.9% D 40 +575

149

Nick Loftin R

5.6% 0.0% 1.9% 4.0% D 38 +850

154

Isaac Collins S Edge

6.1% 2.3% 9.1% 5.9% D 37 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Anderson's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caglianone Massey Pasquantino

Legend

attack side — vs Wacha fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jac Caglianone +575 · 58

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 6:15p · roof open

Park 1.00× Wind 5 mph in 77°F open

-3

↑

5 mph · in

77°F

6:15p · peak

-3

↑

4 mph · in

76°F

7:15p

-3

↑

4 mph · in

74°F

8:15p

-5

↑

5 mph · in

72°F

9:15p

-6

↑

6 mph · in

70°F

10:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.00× 77°F, wind 5 mph NNE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Michael Wacha · RHP 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 54 C +500 COOL 30 0.235 88.9 8.7% 30.0%vs RHP 398 19.5% 0.0% 18.8% 36

2 Spencer Torkelson 50 C +390 COOL 49 0.187 89.3 9.6% 23.3%vs RHP 394 14.6% 0.0% 13.9% 24

3 Colt Keith 41 D +700 WARM 121 0.150 88.8 7.0% 13.4%vs RHP 385 6.7% 12.5% 8.4% 22

4 Kevin Mcgonigle 40 D +625 · 127 0.141 88.1 6.9% 9.3%vs RHP 397 20.0% 0.0% 7.5% 42

5 Gleyber Torres 40 D +700 COOL 132 0.130 86.1 7.1% 14.6%vs RHP 393 9.8% 8.3% 8.8% 41

6 Zach Mckinstry 31 D +950 COOL 191 0.104 85.7 4.2% 6.2%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 27

vs Drew Anderson · RHP 1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.49 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone ✶ 58 C +575 WARM 20 0.216 93.2 10.8% 29.4%vs RHP 417 14.9% 25.0% 27.4% 36

2 Bobby Witt 48 D — COOL 61 0.177 92.6 9.7% 16.9%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 20.8% 38

3 Carter Jensen 48 D +525 WARM 68 0.179 90.6 9.0% 16.9%vs RHP 394 14.7% 9.1% 11.7% 28

4 Michael Massey 44 D +750 · 91 0.169 89.8 7.1% 10.3%vs RHP 399 7.9% 16.7% 12.3% 33

5 Vinnie Pasquantino 42 D +625 HOT 105 0.123 89.0 7.3% 13.0%vs RHP 395 9.9% 40.0% 13.7% 19

6 Salvador Perez 40 D +575 COOL 125 0.148 88.9 8.8% 17.6%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 36

7 Nick Loftin 38 D +850 COOL 149 0.142 86.9 5.7% 10.0%vs RHP 397 7.8% 0.0% 9.5% 28

8 Isaac Collins 37 D +850 WARM 154 0.121 88.6 6.7% 8.0%vs RHP 394 5.6% 0.0% 7.5% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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