TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ SD

Playable air · 1.07×

MIN @ SD

Petco Park · 8:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 7 mph cross 87°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

5:40p

-3 ↑

6:40p

-3 ↑

7:40p

-4 ↑

8:40p

-4 ↑

9:40p

best window is early — 5:40p at -3

Best of game Gavin Sheets conv 22 · vs Kremer ⟷ Kody Clemens conv 18 · vs Mize → edge: Ty France

ATTACK Dean Kremer RHP · BAL

leak 95

2.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.41 · leakiest side of this game

1 Gavin Sheets +525 D ●●●○○

2 Jackson Merrill +500 D ●●●○○

3 Ty France +525 C ●●●○○

FADE Casey Mize RHP · DET

leak 65

0.63 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.93 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kody Clemens +390 D ●●●○○

2 Josh Bell +500 D ●●○○○

3 Brooks Lee +700 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ty France: 10.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Ty France ✶ vs Kremer +525 0.218 · 92.3 · 8.7% 16.7% 19.0% F B O C 52

· — Byron Buxton COOL vs Mize +280 0.268 · 90.3 · 11.4% 0.0% 16.1% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· — Gavin Sheets vs Kremer Edge +525 0.182 · 87.5 · 7.3% 22.2% 22.1% F B O D 46

· — Jackson Merrill vs Kremer Edge +500 0.167 · 90.6 · 9.2% 25.0% 17.9% F B O D 49

· — Kody Clemens vs Mize Edge +390 0.229 · 92.3 · 9.4% 20.0% 16.7% F B O D 49

· — Xander Bogaerts HOT vs Kremer +750 0.109 · 88.6 · 6.8% 16.7% 12.2% F B O D 37

· — Josh Bell vs Mize Edge +500 0.174 · 89.9 · 8.7% 16.7% 9.1% F B O D 40

· — Brooks Lee vs Mize Edge +700 0.174 · 87.8 · 5.3% 16.7% 8.5% F B O D 36

· — Manny Machado COOL vs Kremer +390 0.197 · 90.8 · 8.6% 8.3% 14.3% F B O D 49

· — Fernando Tatis HOT vs Kremer — 0.154 · 92.5 · 9.4% 0.0% 16.0% F B O D 41

· — Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Kremer Edge +750 0.073 · 87.3 · 5.2% 8.3% 7.2% F B O D 29

· — Luke Keaschall COOL vs Mize +750 0.105 · 84.8 · 4.8% 8.3% 6.7% F B O D 26

· — Royce Lewis COOL vs Mize +400 0.179 · 90.2 · 9.7% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 41

· — Freddy Fermin COOL vs Kremer — 0.115 · 87.6 · 5.5% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 33

· — Trevor Larnach vs Mize Edge +700 0.153 · 87.4 · 7.6% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 34

· — Victor Caratini vs Mize Edge — 0.105 · 89.6 · 7.2% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 44.9% BRK 31.4% OFF 23.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Byron Buxton R

18.8% 13.9% 12.9% 16.6% C 53 +280

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Kody Clemens L Edge

9.3% 18.8% 11.5% 11.8% D 49 +390

118

Royce Lewis R

14.3% 7.1% 10.3% 11.8% D 41 +400

129

Josh Bell S Edge

10.6% 12.5% 6.2% 10.0% D 40 +500

159

Brooks Lee S Edge

6.6% 0.0% 1.1% 3.5% D 36 +700

179

Trevor Larnach L Edge

7.8% 8.8% 4.9% 7.6% D 34 +700

202

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.8% 11.4% 5.7% 6.6% D 27 —

204

Luke Keaschall R

3.9% 2.1% 0.0% 3.0% D 26 +750

Read the columns: no single family leads Mize's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 56.1% ← leak OFF 28.4% BRK 13.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Ty France R

9.9% 10.0% 10.3% 10.0% C 52 +525

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Manny Machado R

11.7% 9.3% 6.1% 9.8% D 49 +390

Jackson Merrill L Edge

13.3% 6.8% 10.4% 11.1% D 49 +500

Gavin Sheets L Edge

9.8% 1.7% 5.9% 7.2% D 46 +525

111

Fernando Tatis R

11.2% 15.9% 13.2% 12.2% D 41 —

152

Xander Bogaerts R

7.4% 3.4% 4.6% 6.3% D 37 +750

185

Freddy Fermin R

2.9% 9.1% 5.0% 3.9% D 33 —

199

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

3.9% 3.6% 2.6% 3.6% D 29 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.1% usage) carries Kremer's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Clemens France Merrill Sheets Bogaerts

Legend

attack side — vs Kremer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Gavin Sheets +525 · 46

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 5:40p · roof open

Park 0.89× Wind 7 mph cross 87°F open

-3

↑

7 mph · cross

87°F

5:40p · peak

-3

↑

6 mph · cross

83°F

6:40p

-3

↑

6 mph · cross

80°F

7:40p

-4

↑

6 mph · cross

78°F

8:40p

-4

↑

5 mph · cross

77°F

9:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.07× 87°F, wind 7 mph W (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Casey Mize · RHP 0.63 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.93 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Byron Buxton 53 C +280 COOL 34 0.268 90.3 11.4% 31.3%vs RHP 402 26.4% 0.0% 16.1% 17

2 Kody Clemens 49 D +390 WARM 54 0.229 92.3 9.4% 18.6%vs RHP 391 17.1% 20.0% 16.7% 26

3 Royce Lewis 41 D +400 COOL 118 0.179 90.2 9.7% 16.4%vs RHP 400 15.3% 0.0% 10.0% 30

4 Josh Bell 40 D +500 · 129 0.174 89.9 8.7% 20.3%vs RHP 405 11.9% 16.7% 9.1% 37

5 Brooks Lee 36 D +700 · 159 0.174 87.8 5.3% 19.0%vs RHP 370 14.5% 16.7% 8.5% 39

6 Trevor Larnach 34 D +700 WARM 179 0.153 87.4 7.6% 15.2%vs RHP 397 9.1% 0.0% 6.9% 26

7 Victor Caratini 27 D — · 202 0.105 89.6 7.2% 16.2%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 13

8 Luke Keaschall 26 D +750 COOL 204 0.105 84.8 4.8% 9.9%vs RHP 371 6.4% 8.3% 6.7% 36

vs Dean Kremer · RHP 2.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.41 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France ✶ 52 C +525 · 38 0.218 92.3 8.7% 28.0%vs RHP 392 16.4% 16.7% 19.0% 34

2 Manny Machado 49 D +390 COOL 55 0.197 90.8 8.6% 27.0%vs RHP 397 17.9% 8.3% 14.3% 39

3 Jackson Merrill 49 D +500 WARM 59 0.167 90.6 9.2% 19.5%vs RHP 412 14.9% 25.0% 17.9% 29

4 Gavin Sheets 46 D +525 WARM 75 0.182 87.5 7.3% 30.9%vs RHP 395 10.8% 22.2% 22.1% 17

5 Fernando Tatis 41 D — HOT 111 0.154 92.5 9.4% 13.2%vs RHP 413 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 38

6 Xander Bogaerts 37 D +750 HOT 152 0.109 88.6 6.8% 16.7%vs RHP 400 8.3% 16.7% 12.2% 28

7 Freddy Fermin 33 D — COOL 185 0.115 87.6 5.5% 6.7%vs RHP 382 2.7% 0.0% 7.3% 14

8 Jake Cronenworth 29 D +750 COOL 199 0.073 87.3 5.2% 9.1%vs RHP 392 2.5% 8.3% 7.2% 31

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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