TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ MIA

Suppressed air · 0.84×

WSH @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 4:10p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.84× Wind 13 mph in 89°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-16 ↑

4:10p

-17 ↑

5:10p

-13 ↑

6:10p

-8 ↑

7:10p

-4 ↑

8:10p

conditions build late — the 8:10p window peaks -4

Best of game Javier Sanoja conv 16 · vs Irvin ⟷ Keibert Ruiz conv 10 · vs Pérez → edge: Owen Caissie

ATTACK Jake Irvin RHP · WSH

leak 75

1.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · leakiest side of this game

1 Javier Sanoja — D ●●○○○

2 Heriberto Hernández +475 D ●●○○○

3 Owen Caissie +425 C ●●○○○

FADE Eury Pérez RHP · MIA

leak 13

0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · stingy — thin edge

1 Keibert Ruiz +700 D ●○○○○

2 Jacob Young +950 D ●○○○○

3 Dylan Crews +700 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Owen Caissie: 15.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 10.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIA Owen Caissie ✶ COOL vs Irvin Edge +425 0.201 · 91.3 · 13.3% 10.0% 13.0% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Irvin — 0.147 · 86.6 · 5.2% 22.2% 9.7% F B O D 35

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Irvin +475 0.219 · 91.6 · 12.0% 0.0% 23.3% F B O D 47

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Pérez Edge +700 0.156 · 88.4 · 6.5% 12.5% 6.7% F B O D 34

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Pérez +950 0.151 · 88.3 · 7.4% 10.0% 8.5% F B O D 35

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Pérez +700 0.146 · 90.6 · 9.7% 10.0% 8.0% F B O D 39

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Irvin Edge +700 0.105 · 87.1 · 6.4% 9.1% 6.3% F B O D 31

· WSH Cj Abrams COOL vs Pérez Edge +425 0.250 · 89.4 · 9.5% 0.0% 13.6% F B O D 48

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Irvin +850 0.140 · 89.1 · 8.3% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 36

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Pérez Edge +575 0.160 · 88.5 · 8.7% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 36

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Irvin Edge +1000 0.098 · 87.0 · 6.3% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 29

· WSH Nasim Nunez vs Pérez Edge — 0.036 · 84.9 · 1.9% 0.0% 4.7% F B O D 14

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 55.3% ← leak BRK 35.4% OFF 9.3% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Cj Abrams L Edge

10.6% 9.2% 11.8% 10.3% D 48 +425

143

Dylan Crews R

6.8% 21.1% 14.3% 10.1% D 39 +700

163

Daylen Lile L Edge

8.1% 13.0% 4.3% 8.5% D 36 +575

170

Jacob Young R

7.8% 3.6% 2.9% 6.0% D 35 +950

180

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

6.2% 3.0% 2.3% 4.6% D 34 +700

209

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 14 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.3% usage) carries Pérez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 60.2% ← leak BRK 33.0% OFF 6.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Owen Caissie L Edge

16.9% 9.3% 18.2% 15.0% C 50 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Heriberto Hernández R

11.7% 13.2% 14.3% 12.4% D 47 +475

162

Otto Lopez R

8.9% 3.8% 3.0% 6.2% D 36 +850

168

Javier Sanoja R

2.4% 3.1% 0.0% 2.3% D 35 —

195

Jakob Marsee L Edge

3.2% 1.9% 7.9% 3.5% D 31 +700

200

Xavier Edwards S Edge

4.2% 2.3% 2.7% 3.5% D 29 +1000

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.2% usage) carries Irvin's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caissie Sanoja

Legend

attack side — vs Irvin fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 4:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.84× Wind 13 mph in 89°F retractable

-16

↑

13 mph · in

90°F

4:10p

-17

↑

14 mph · in

89°F

5:10p

-13

↑

12 mph · in

87°F

6:10p

-8

↑

10 mph · cross

85°F

7:10p

-4

↑

9 mph · cross

83°F

8:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.84× 89°F, wind 13 mph ESE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Eury Pérez · RHP 0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cj Abrams 48 D +425 COOL 60 0.250 89.4 9.5% 29.9%vs RHP 395 33.3% 0.0% 13.6% 28

2 Dylan Crews 39 D +700 · 143 0.146 90.6 9.7% 11.9%vs RHP 407 15.9% 10.0% 8.0% 30

3 Daylen Lile 36 D +575 · 163 0.160 88.5 8.7% 12.3%vs RHP 400 9.6% 0.0% 7.2% 36

4 Jacob Young 35 D +950 COOL 170 0.151 88.3 7.4% 13.0%vs RHP 399 7.8% 10.0% 8.5% 31

5 Keibert Ruiz 34 D +700 COOL 180 0.156 88.4 6.5% 8.9%vs RHP 377 9.8% 12.5% 6.7% 26

6 Nasim Nunez 14 D — WARM 209 0.036 84.9 1.9% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% 28

vs Jake Irvin · RHP 1.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Owen Caissie ✶ 50 C +425 COOL 50 0.201 91.3 13.3% 27.1%vs RHP 398 14.3% 10.0% 13.0% 19

2 Heriberto Hernández 47 D +475 · 69 0.219 91.6 12.0% 20.4%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 23.3% 22

3 Otto Lopez 36 D +850 COOL 162 0.140 89.1 8.3% 9.9%vs RHP 402 6.5% 0.0% 7.6% 42

4 Javier Sanoja 35 D — WARM 168 0.147 86.6 5.2% 7.3%vs RHP 378 7.1% 22.2% 9.7% 32

5 Jakob Marsee 31 D +700 · 195 0.105 87.1 6.4% 9.0%vs RHP 381 6.9% 9.1% 6.3% 36

6 Xavier Edwards 29 D +1000 COOL 200 0.098 87.0 6.3% 2.7%vs RHP 396 4.0% 0.0% 5.7% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

9 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.