TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ NYY

Neutral air · 1.05×

TOR @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 1:35p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 6 mph cross 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

1:35p

+0 ↑

2:35p

-1 ↑

3:35p

+0 ↑

4:35p

-1 ↑

5:35p

best window is early — 2:35p at +0

Best of game Kazuma Okamoto conv 20 · vs Weathers ⟷ Ben Rice conv 29 · vs Cease → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Ryan Weathers LHP · NYY

leak 95

1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.61 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kazuma Okamoto +475 C ●●●○○

2 Nathan Lukes — D ●●○○○

3 George Springer +575 D ●○○○○

FADE Dylan Cease RHP · TOR

leak 75

0.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.25 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ben Rice +390 C+ ●●●●○

2 Trent Grisham +475 C ●●●●○

3 Spencer Jones +625 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 15.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Cease Edge +390 0.281 · 92.2 · 8.9% 25.0% 32.5% F B O C+ 63

· NYY Trent Grisham HOT vs Cease Edge +475 0.197 · 90.7 · 7.2% 33.3% 23.5% F B O C 50

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto vs Weathers Edge +475 0.210 · 90.4 · 10.1% 18.2% 21.3% F B O C 57

· NYY Luis García Jr. vs Cease Edge +500 0.262 · 91.6 · 7.9% 14.3% 19.7% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· NYY Spencer Jones vs Cease Edge +625 0.179 · 94.3 · 8.7% 16.7% 20.7% F B O D 48

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Weathers — 0.105 · 86.6 · 3.2% 22.2% 8.3% F B O D 34

· NYY Jazz Chisholm Jr. vs Cease Edge +575 0.172 · 90.7 · 6.9% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 43

· TOR George Springer COOL vs Weathers Edge +575 0.153 · 88.4 · 7.5% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 43

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Weathers Edge +950 0.119 · 84.5 · 4.4% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 34

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Cease — 0.145 · 83.8 · 4.6% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 32

· NYY Heliot Ramos vs Cease +625 0.149 · 92.2 · 8.4% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 41

· NYY Austin Wells COOL vs Cease Edge +700 0.117 · 89.0 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 36

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Weathers — 0.116 · 85.7 · 5.2% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 33

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Weathers Edge — 0.108 · 85.7 · 5.2% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 33

· TOR Jesús Sánchez vs Weathers — 0.163 · 90.9 · 9.7% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 46

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 42.5% ← leak BRK 32.1% OFF 25.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R Edge

13.8% 7.9% 20.0% 12.5% C 57 +475

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jesús Sánchez L

10.6% 18.3% 0.0% 11.3% D 46 —

George Springer R Edge

7.2% 5.5% 6.7% 6.6% D 43 +575

176

Ernie Clement R Edge

2.4% 2.3% 1.7% 2.3% D 34 +950

178

Nathan Lukes L

0.6% 3.4% 2.1% 1.5% D 34 —

181

Andres Gimenez L

3.5% 2.1% 4.4% 3.2% D 33 —

182

Myles Straw R Edge

3.6% 0.0% 5.9% 3.1% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.5% usage) carries Weathers's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 45.0% ← leak BRK 43.4% OFF 11.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Ben Rice L Edge

17.6% 12.8% 12.3% 15.3% C+ 63 +390

Luis García Jr. L Edge

11.7% 16.7% 7.0% 12.0% C 52 +500

Trent Grisham L Edge

11.2% 7.3% 7.5% 10.0% C 50 +475

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Spencer Jones L Edge

17.0% 3.3% 30.0% 13.8% D 48 +625

Jazz Chisholm Jr. L Edge

7.8% 12.5% 7.1% 9.2% D 43 +575

120

Heliot Ramos R

12.1% 15.8% 13.8% 13.5% D 41 +625

160

Austin Wells L Edge

8.6% 5.7% 0.0% 6.6% D 36 +700

189

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.0% usage) carries Cease's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Lukes Rice Jr. Grisham Jones

Legend

attack side — vs Weathers fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Ben Rice +390 · 63

Trent Grisham +475 · 50

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 6 mph cross 73°F open

-1

↑

6 mph · cross

74°F

1:35p

↑

6 mph · cross

74°F

2:35p · peak

-1

↑

7 mph · cross

75°F

3:35p

↑

7 mph · cross

76°F

4:35p

-1

↑

8 mph · cross

75°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.05× 73°F, wind 6 mph SE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ryan Weathers · LHP 1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.61 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 57 C +475 · 24 0.210 90.4 10.1% 22.6%vs LHP 397 17.8% 18.2% 21.3% 32

2 Jesús Sánchez 46 D — · 84 0.163 90.9 9.7% 0.0%vs LHP 398 10.0% 0.0% 8.2% 12

3 George Springer 43 D +575 COOL 98 0.153 88.4 7.5% 8.3%vs LHP 393 10.4% 0.0% 10.1% 22

4 Ernie Clement 34 D +950 COOL 176 0.119 84.5 4.4% 10.0%vs LHP 376 7.5% 0.0% 8.9% 37

5 Nathan Lukes 34 D — WARM 178 0.105 86.6 3.2% 10.8% 381 7.0% 22.2% 8.3% 39

6 Andres Gimenez 33 D — COOL 181 0.116 85.7 5.2% 13.3%vs LHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 34

7 Myles Straw 33 D — COOL 182 0.108 85.7 5.2% 5.7%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 25

vs Dylan Cease · RHP 0.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.25 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 63 C+ +390 WARM 9 0.281 92.2 8.9% 30.9%vs RHP 393 24.8% 25.0% 32.5% 32

2 Luis García Jr. 52 C +500 WARM 36 0.262 91.6 7.9% 33.3%vs RHP 399 8.3% 14.3% 19.7% 30

3 Trent Grisham 50 C +475 HOT 47 0.197 90.7 7.2% 20.9%vs RHP 385 13.7% 33.3% 23.5% 33

4 Spencer Jones 48 D +625 WARM 62 0.179 94.3 8.7% 21.9%vs RHP 396 15.0% 16.7% 20.7% 25

5 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 43 D +575 · 96 0.172 90.7 6.9% 22.4%vs RHP 388 12.5% 0.0% 12.4% 24

6 Heliot Ramos 41 D +625 · 120 0.149 92.2 8.4% 16.3%vs RHP 407 8.9% 0.0% 8.6% 28

7 Austin Wells 36 D +700 COOL 160 0.117 89.0 6.0% 13.6%vs RHP 387 9.0% 0.0% 8.5% 23

8 Jose Caballero 32 D — WARM 189 0.145 83.8 4.6% 20.5%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 9

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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