TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ SEA

Playable air · 1.10×

CHC @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 7:15p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 8 mph out 74°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+8 ↑

4:15p

+8 ↑

5:15p

+6 ↑

6:15p

+4 ↑

7:15p

+3 ↑

8:15p

best window is early — 4:15p at +8

Best of game Randy Arozarena conv 21 · vs Peterson ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 34 · vs Proxy → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK David Peterson LHP · CHC

leak 95

0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · leakiest side of this game

1 Randy Arozarena +525 D ●●●○○

2 Cal Raleigh +390 D ●●●○○

3 Dominic Canzone +525 C ●●○○○

FADE SEA Bullpen Proxy

leak 50

1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +330 C+ ●●●●●

2 Seiya Suzuki +400 C ●●●●○

3 Ian Happ +500 C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 26.7% · 14D pace 41.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Proxy +330 0.271 · 90.3 · 12.7% 41.7% 26.7% F B O C+ 68

· — Seiya Suzuki vs Proxy +400 0.215 · 88.7 · 10.9% 27.3% 23.2% F B O C 57

· — Ian Happ vs Proxy +500 0.191 · 89.3 · 11.2% 27.3% 20.1% F B O C 55

· SEA Dominic Canzone COOL vs Peterson +525 0.232 · 91.6 · 9.2% 8.3% 20.3% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· SEA Randy Arozarena COOL vs Peterson Edge +525 0.177 · 90.9 · 7.1% 25.0% 17.5% F B O D 48

· — Alex Bregman vs Proxy +625 0.149 · 88.3 · 4.5% 25.0% 14.2% F B O D 40

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Peterson Edge +390 0.141 · 89.0 · 9.0% 18.2% 15.3% F B O D 46

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Peterson Edge +500 0.163 · 90.0 · 7.7% 8.3% 10.3% F B O D 45

· SEA Cole Young COOL vs Peterson +950 0.140 · 88.9 · 5.5% 9.1% 9.3% F B O D 39

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Peterson +850 0.103 · 87.7 · 5.7% 9.1% 8.7% F B O D 34

· — Michael Busch COOL vs Proxy +525 0.144 · 88.0 · 8.8% 9.1% 8.2% F B O D 43

· — Carson Kelly COOL vs Proxy +850 0.112 · 87.0 · 5.5% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 34

· — Nico Hoerner COOL vs Proxy — 0.098 · 85.8 · 1.1% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 54.3% ← leak BRK 33.0% OFF 12.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Dominic Canzone L

15.4% 11.8% 8.5% 12.8% C 54 +525

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Randy Arozarena R Edge

7.7% 7.3% 7.0% 7.4% D 48 +525

Cal Raleigh S Edge

10.1% 16.0% 14.0% 12.3% D 46 +390

Julio Rodríguez R Edge

9.8% 7.8% 9.1% 9.1% D 45 +500

140

Cole Young L

4.1% 8.5% 1.6% 4.7% D 39 +950

177

Josh Naylor L

4.5% 8.0% 1.5% 4.8% D 34 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.3% usage) carries Peterson's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for SEA Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Canzone Arozarena Raleigh Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Happ Bregman

Legend

attack side — vs Peterson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Pete Crow-Armstrong +330 · 68

Seiya Suzuki +400 · 57

Ian Happ +500 · 55

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 4:15p · roof retractable

Park 1.00× Wind 8 mph out 74°F retractable

↑

8 mph · out

74°F

4:15p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

75°F

5:15p

↑

6 mph · out

72°F

6:15p

↑

4 mph · out

69°F

7:15p

↑

3 mph · out

67°F

8:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.10× 74°F, wind 8 mph SW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs David Peterson · LHP 0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 54 C +525 COOL 29 0.232 91.6 9.2% 36.4%vs LHP 402 15.4% 8.3% 20.3% 36

2 Randy Arozarena 48 D +525 COOL 64 0.177 90.9 7.1% 17.4%vs LHP 384 13.7% 25.0% 17.5% 35

3 Cal Raleigh 46 D +390 WARM 76 0.141 89.0 9.0% 25.0%vs LHP 390 13.7% 18.2% 15.3% 23

4 Julio Rodríguez 45 D +500 WARM 88 0.163 90.0 7.7% 23.7%vs LHP 405 16.2% 8.3% 10.3% 34

5 Cole Young 39 D +950 COOL 140 0.140 88.9 5.5% 11.8%vs LHP 385 11.4% 9.1% 9.3% 34

6 Josh Naylor 34 D +850 · 177 0.103 87.7 5.7% 11.1%vs LHP 392 6.6% 9.1% 8.7% 40

vs SEA Bullpen Proxy 1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 68 C+ +330 · 8 0.271 90.3 12.7% 19.7% 396 21.7% 41.7% 26.7% 35

2 Seiya Suzuki 57 C +400 WARM 32 0.215 88.7 10.9% 19.1% 406 17.0% 27.3% 23.2% 28

3 Ian Happ 55 C +500 · 42 0.191 89.3 11.2% 17.1% 402 17.3% 27.3% 20.1% 32

4 Michael Busch 43 D +525 COOL 136 0.144 88.0 8.8% 10.9% 401 12.4% 9.1% 8.2% 35

5 Alex Bregman 40 D +625 WARM 155 0.149 88.3 4.5% 10.2% 387 11.1% 25.0% 14.2% 41

6 Carson Kelly 34 D +850 COOL 196 0.112 87.0 5.5% 9.7% 413 6.8% 0.0% 7.4% 21

7 Nico Hoerner 25 D — COOL 207 0.098 85.8 1.1% 5.4% 381 5.6% 0.0% 6.9% 42

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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