TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.19×

CIN @ AZ

Chase Field · 8:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 7 mph cross 112°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-2 ↑

5:10p

+2 ↑

6:10p

+11 ↑

7:10p

+16 ↑

8:10p

+13 ↑

9:10p

conditions build late — the 8:10p window peaks +16

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 19 · vs Lowder ⟷ Sal Stewart conv 13 · vs Soroka → edge: Corbin Carroll

ATTACK Rhett Lowder RHP · CIN

leak 68

1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado +750 D ●●●○○

2 Corbin Carroll +425 C ●●○○○

3 Gabriel Moreno +850 D ●●○○○

FADE Michael Soroka RHP · AZ

leak 13

0.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.77 · stingy — thin edge

1 Sal Stewart +525 D ●●○○○

2 Tyler Stephenson +625 D ●●○○○

3 Eugenio Suarez +500 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Corbin Carroll: Match 15.8% · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· AZ Corbin Carroll ✶ COOL vs Lowder Edge +425 0.238 · 91.6 · 10.4% 16.7% 15.8% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· AZ Nolan Arenado COOL vs Lowder +750 0.200 · 85.2 · 8.0% 18.2% 18.9% F B O D 48

· CIN Sal Stewart COOL vs Soroka +525 0.215 · 90.1 · 10.1% 14.3% 12.0% F B O D 48

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Lowder +850 0.163 · 89.3 · 8.0% 16.7% 8.5% F B O D 42

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Soroka +625 0.165 · 91.2 · 9.9% 9.1% 15.2% F B O D 41

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Soroka +500 0.205 · 88.7 · 9.5% 0.0% 20.4% F B O D 41

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs Lowder Edge — 0.142 · 87.5 · 5.8% 11.1% 8.4% F B O D 36

· AZ Tim Tawa vs Lowder +750 0.150 · 90.7 · 8.5% 9.1% 8.6% F B O D 40

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Soroka Edge +500 0.214 · 88.7 · 8.8% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 42

· CIN Elly De La Cruz COOL vs Soroka Edge +500 0.207 · 93.8 · 10.3% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 46

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Soroka +750 0.158 · 87.8 · 8.8% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 36

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Lowder Edge +850 0.127 · 87.3 · 5.3% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 33

· CIN Tj Friedl COOL vs Soroka Edge — 0.078 · 87.4 · 4.4% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 25

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Lowder +950 0.112 · 88.0 · 7.9% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 54.6% ← leak BRK 32.2% OFF 12.5% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Sal Stewart R

16.4% 9.3% 8.8% 13.0% D 48 +525

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

17.7% 10.4% 4.7% 13.2% D 46 +500

104

Jj Bleday L Edge

11.6% 6.8% 5.5% 9.2% D 42 +500

109

Eugenio Suarez R

13.4% 7.0% 5.0% 11.2% D 41 +500

113

Tyler Stephenson R

15.8% 7.5% 5.3% 12.3% D 41 +625

156

Matt Mclain R

12.0% 9.6% 0.0% 10.0% D 36 +750

205

Tj Friedl L Edge

2.6% 3.8% 0.0% 2.4% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.6% usage) carries Soroka's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 49.9% BRK 29.3% OFF 20.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Corbin Carroll L Edge

11.0% 14.7% 9.2% 11.7% C 54 +425

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Nolan Arenado R

9.9% 2.0% 5.9% 6.9% D 48 +750

107

Gabriel Moreno R

7.5% 6.8% 7.9% 7.4% D 42 +850

133

Tim Tawa R

9.3% 10.5% 4.8% 9.0% D 40 +750

161

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.8% 2.9% 1.4% 3.7% D 36 —

174

Ryan Waldschmidt R

7.5% 6.8% 0.0% 6.5% D 35 +950

186

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.0% 1.5% 2.2% 3.1% D 33 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Lowder's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stewart Carroll Arenado

Legend

attack side — vs Lowder fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 5:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.92× Wind 7 mph cross 112°F retractable

-2

↑

7 mph · cross

112°F

5:10p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

108°F

6:10p

+11

↑

13 mph · out

104°F

7:10p

+16

↑

16 mph · out

100°F

8:10p · peak

+13

↑

14 mph · out

98°F

9:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.19× 112°F, wind 7 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Michael Soroka · RHP 0.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.77 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart 48 D +525 COOL 67 0.215 90.1 10.1% 23.0%vs RHP 396 16.7% 14.3% 12.0% 43

2 Elly De La Cruz 46 D +500 COOL 80 0.207 93.8 10.3% 20.0%vs RHP 396 15.6% 0.0% 11.7% 35

3 Jj Bleday 42 D +500 COOL 104 0.214 88.7 8.8% 21.1%vs RHP 388 14.3% 0.0% 12.3% 33

4 Eugenio Suarez 41 D +500 · 109 0.205 88.7 9.5% 28.0%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 20.4% 31

5 Tyler Stephenson 41 D +625 · 113 0.165 91.2 9.9% 21.1%vs RHP 392 8.9% 9.1% 15.2% 21

6 Matt Mclain 36 D +750 COOL 156 0.158 87.8 8.8% 13.1%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 33

7 Tj Friedl 25 D — COOL 205 0.078 87.4 4.4% 7.0%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 9

vs Rhett Lowder · RHP 1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll ✶ 54 C +425 COOL 31 0.238 91.6 10.4% 16.7%vs RHP 402 13.8% 16.7% 15.8% 35

2 Nolan Arenado 48 D +750 COOL 63 0.200 85.2 8.0% 20.9%vs RHP 390 15.3% 18.2% 18.9% 32

3 Gabriel Moreno 42 D +850 WARM 107 0.163 89.3 8.0% 14.8%vs RHP 398 9.8% 16.7% 8.5% 41

4 Tim Tawa 40 D +750 · 133 0.150 90.7 8.5% 22.6%vs RHP 402 6.5% 9.1% 8.6% 33

5 Ildemaro Vargas 36 D — WARM 161 0.142 87.5 5.8% 10.3%vs RHP 396 5.3% 11.1% 8.4% 36

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 35 D +950 COOL 174 0.112 88.0 7.9% 7.4%vs RHP 419 2.6% 0.0% 6.1% 28

7 Geraldo Perdomo 33 D +850 COOL 186 0.127 87.3 5.3% 10.3%vs RHP 383 7.1% 0.0% 6.9% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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