TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.32×

STL @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 6:05p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.10× Wind 7 mph out 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

6:05p

+7 ↑

7:05p

+7 ↑

8:05p

+6 ↑

9:05p

+5 ↑

10:05p

best window is early — 6:05p at +9

Best of game Jordan Walker conv 34 · vs Painter ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 24 · vs Proxy → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Andrew Painter RHP · PHI

leak 95

1.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.76 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jordan Walker +350 C+ ●●●●●

2 Alec Burleson +400 C+ ●●●●○

3 Masyn Winn +950 D ●○○○○

FADE STL Bullpen Proxy · STL

leak 43

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber +280 B ●●●●○

2 Bryce Harper +500 C+ ●●○○○

3 Brandon Marsh +625 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 32.2% · 14D pace 16.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Painter +350 0.218 · 92.6 · 10.4% 35.7% 32.8% F B O C+ 68

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Proxy +280 0.281 · 93.2 · 17.6% 16.7% 32.2% F B O B 78

· STL Alec Burleson vs Painter Edge +400 0.201 · 92.1 · 9.8% 23.1% 25.6% F B O C+ 63

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs Proxy +500 0.232 · 90.2 · 11.0% 8.3% 16.7% F B O C+ 61

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· PHI Brandon Marsh vs Proxy +625 0.162 · 89.6 · 8.4% 9.1% 10.8% F B O D 49

· PHI Trea Turner COOL vs Proxy +700 0.148 · 88.4 · 6.2% 10.0% 9.4% F B O D 45

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Proxy +700 0.140 · 90.5 · 5.7% 10.0% 8.8% F B O D 43

· STL Masyn Winn HOT vs Painter +950 0.088 · 88.2 · 5.3% 8.3% 9.1% F B O D 39

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Proxy +850 0.150 · 89.4 · 6.1% 8.3% 8.7% F B O D 44

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Painter +575 0.140 · 89.5 · 7.0% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 44

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Painter Edge +500 0.129 · 89.6 · 7.7% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 46

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Painter Edge +750 0.119 · 86.0 · 7.3% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 45

· STL José Fermín vs Painter — 0.117 · 86.7 · 4.1% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 40

· PHI J.T. Realmuto COOL vs Proxy +750 0.119 · 89.7 · 4.5% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 36

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Proxy — 0.090 · 87.1 · 1.4% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 42.3% ← leak BRK 41.7% OFF 16.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jordan Walker R

14.1% 11.6% 16.2% 13.4% C+ 68 +350

Alec Burleson L Edge

12.0% 11.2% 11.0% 11.6% C+ 63 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

9.8% 4.0% 1.9% 7.2% D 46 +500

Nathan Church L Edge

7.7% 6.2% 4.5% 6.5% D 45 +750

Ivan Herrera R

6.3% 4.7% 6.5% 5.8% D 44 +575

131

José Fermín R

2.3% 2.1% 0.0% 1.9% D 40 —

141

Masyn Winn R

4.1% 1.9% 5.7% 3.6% D 39 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.3% usage) carries Painter's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for STL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Walker Burleson Schwarber

Legend

attack side — vs Painter fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jordan Walker +350 · 68

Alec Burleson +400 · 63

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 6:05p · roof open

Park 1.10× Wind 7 mph out 72°F open

↑

7 mph · out

73°F

6:05p · peak

↑

6 mph · out

71°F

7:05p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

70°F

8:05p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

69°F

9:05p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

69°F

10:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.32× 72°F, wind 7 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Andrew Painter · RHP 1.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.76 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 68 C+ +350 COOL 5 0.218 92.6 10.4% 27.9%vs RHP 408 18.8% 35.7% 32.8% 44

2 Alec Burleson 63 C+ +400 WARM 10 0.201 92.1 9.8% 23.1%vs RHP 405 15.4% 23.1% 25.6% 39

3 Jj Wetherholt 46 D +500 · 82 0.129 89.6 7.7% 15.5%vs RHP 391 16.7% 0.0% 9.8% 41

4 Nathan Church 45 D +750 COOL 89 0.119 86.0 7.3% 14.9%vs RHP 384 8.0% 0.0% 9.7% 31

5 Ivan Herrera 44 D +575 · 90 0.140 89.5 7.0% 17.6%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 43

6 José Fermín 40 D — WARM 131 0.117 86.7 4.1% 7.7%vs RHP 388 5.3% 0.0% 9.0% 30

7 Masyn Winn 39 D +950 HOT 141 0.088 88.2 5.3% 8.2%vs RHP 390 4.1% 8.3% 9.1% 31

vs STL Bullpen Proxy 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 78 B +280 COOL 1 0.281 93.2 17.6% 31.1% 402 21.8% 16.7% 32.2% 35

2 Bryce Harper 61 C+ +500 COOL 22 0.232 90.2 11.0% 23.6% 403 18.5% 8.3% 16.7% 30

3 Brandon Marsh 49 D +625 · 86 0.162 89.6 8.4% 16.8% 391 12.1% 9.1% 10.8% 31

4 Trea Turner 45 D +700 COOL 108 0.148 88.4 6.2% 13.6% 392 13.3% 10.0% 9.4% 29

5 Bryson Stott 44 D +850 COOL 122 0.150 89.4 6.1% 7.5% 385 7.6% 8.3% 8.7% 41

6 Alec Bohm 43 D +700 WARM 135 0.140 90.5 5.7% 12.7% 397 10.9% 10.0% 8.8% 39

7 J.T. Realmuto 36 D +750 COOL 188 0.119 89.7 4.5% 11.0% 398 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 25

8 Justin Crawford 30 D — COOL 203 0.090 87.1 1.4% 3.4% 382 2.2% 0.0% 7.0% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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