TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.61×

PIT @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 7:15p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 8 mph out 91°F Roof open

Hourly window

+11 ↑

4:15p

+12 ↑

5:15p

+11 ↑

6:15p

+10 ↑

7:15p

+8 ↑

8:15p

best window is early — 5:15p at +12

Best of game Oneil Cruz conv 50 · vs Skubal ⟷ Max Muncy conv 38 · vs Jones → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Tarik Skubal LHP · DET

leak 100

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · leakiest side of this game

1 Oneil Cruz +500 C+ ●●●●●

2 Brandon Lowe +500 C ●●●●●

3 Jared Triolo +950 D ●○○○○

FADE Jared Jones RHP · PIT

leak 95

1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.65 · stingy — thin edge

1 Max Muncy +320 C+ ●●●●●

2 Shohei Ohtani +225 C+ ●●●●●

3 Mookie Betts +400 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: 13.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 40.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Oneil Cruz vs Skubal +500 0.214 · 96.0 · 11.0% 66.7% 33.5% F B O C+ 61

· LAD Max Muncy ✶ vs Jones Edge +320 0.246 · 90.5 · 10.9% 40.0% 36.4% F B O C+ 69

· — Brandon Lowe vs Skubal +500 0.227 · 91.2 · 9.6% 25.0% 34.9% F B O C 59

· LAD Shohei Ohtani vs Jones Edge +225 0.262 · 93.5 · 11.8% 23.1% 36.1% F B O C+ 69

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Jones +400 0.175 · 90.5 · 8.0% 23.1% 18.0% F B O C 51

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Jones — 0.186 · 88.9 · 8.2% 15.4% 14.0% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Jones Edge +500 0.136 · 88.8 · 7.1% 8.3% 9.8% F B O D 43

· — Jared Triolo vs Skubal Edge +950 0.070 · 87.6 · 4.4% 11.1% 6.3% F B O D 30

· — Jake Mangum vs Skubal Edge +1000 0.089 · 85.5 · 4.0% 9.1% 7.2% F B O D 31

· — Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Skubal — 0.150 · 86.9 · 7.4% 0.0% 13.3% F B O D 41

· LAD Freddie Freeman vs Jones Edge +400 0.165 · 89.7 · 8.6% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 48

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Jones +400 0.151 · 89.8 · 8.5% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 43

· — Bryan Reynolds vs Skubal Edge +500 0.165 · 90.6 · 9.0% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 45

· — Nick Gonzales COOL vs Skubal Edge +750 0.094 · 86.3 · 4.5% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.8% ← leak BRK 42.0% OFF 12.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Max Muncy L Edge

16.3% 14.3% 8.7% 13.9% C+ 69 +320

Shohei Ohtani L Edge

19.8% 11.5% 16.1% 16.6% C+ 69 +225

Andy Pages R

7.4% 8.2% 7.9% 7.7% C 52 —

Mookie Betts R

8.8% 4.3% 8.3% 7.7% C 51 +400

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Freddie Freeman L Edge

9.2% 8.3% 8.1% 8.8% D 48 +400

Teoscar Hernandez R

9.2% 10.4% 6.9% 9.2% D 43 +400

Kyle Tucker L Edge

8.7% 3.1% 1.3% 5.9% D 43 +500

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.8% usage) carries Jones's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 55.5% ← leak OFF 26.3% BRK 18.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Oneil Cruz L

15.4% 10.7% 21.3% 16.3% C+ 61 +500

Brandon Lowe L

15.9% 10.2% 7.7% 12.2% C 59 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

11.5% 8.3% 12.8% 11.1% D 45 +500

115

Spencer Horwitz L

7.1% 10.3% 6.3% 7.3% D 41 —

193

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.6% 0.0% 1.1% 2.1% D 31 +1000

194

Nick Gonzales R Edge

2.2% 0.0% 4.6% 2.7% D 31 +750

198

Jared Triolo R Edge

3.0% 0.0% 2.4% 2.5% D 30 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.5% usage) carries Skubal's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Muncy Ohtani Pages Betts Cruz Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Skubal fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Oneil Cruz +500 · 61

Max Muncy +320 · 69

Brandon Lowe +500 · 59

Shohei Ohtani +225 · 69

Mookie Betts +400 · 51

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 4:15p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 8 mph out 91°F open

+11

↑

8 mph · out

91°F

4:15p

+12

↑

8 mph · out

92°F

5:15p · peak

+11

↑

7 mph · out

88°F

6:15p

+10

↑

6 mph · out

85°F

7:15p

↑

5 mph · out

82°F

8:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.61× 91°F, wind 8 mph SW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jared Jones · RHP 1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.65 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy ✶ 69 C+ +320 · 2 0.246 90.5 10.9% 27.7%vs RHP 412 21.3% 40.0% 36.4% 47

2 Shohei Ohtani 69 C+ +225 · 3 0.262 93.5 11.8% 26.9%vs RHP 405 20.2% 23.1% 36.1% 38

3 Andy Pages 52 C — COOL 39 0.186 88.9 8.2% 19.1%vs RHP 390 14.3% 15.4% 14.0% 41

4 Mookie Betts 51 C +400 COOL 44 0.175 90.5 8.0% 16.7%vs RHP 390 11.6% 23.1% 18.0% 43

5 Freddie Freeman 48 D +400 · 66 0.165 89.7 8.6% 14.5%vs RHP 398 10.4% 0.0% 12.4% 37

6 Teoscar Hernandez 43 D +400 WARM 94 0.151 89.8 8.5% 17.6%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 29

7 Kyle Tucker 43 D +500 COOL 99 0.136 88.8 7.1% 11.1%vs RHP 392 7.5% 8.3% 9.8% 38

vs Tarik Skubal · LHP 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Oneil Cruz 61 C+ +500 WARM 14 0.214 96.0 11.0% 50.0%vs LHP 414 25.4% 66.7% 33.5% 6

2 Brandon Lowe 59 C +500 WARM 18 0.227 91.2 9.6% 16.1%vs LHP 392 17.1% 25.0% 34.9% 26

3 Bryan Reynolds 45 D +500 · 87 0.165 90.6 9.0% 17.6%vs LHP 409 11.1% 0.0% 10.8% 35

4 Spencer Horwitz 41 D — COOL 115 0.150 86.9 7.4% 14.3%vs LHP 395 10.0% 0.0% 13.3% 26

5 Jake Mangum 31 D +1000 WARM 193 0.089 85.5 4.0% 5.9%vs LHP 393 4.8% 9.1% 7.2% 31

6 Nick Gonzales 31 D +750 COOL 194 0.094 86.3 4.5% 3.5%vs LHP 397 6.7% 0.0% 6.8% 27

7 Jared Triolo 30 D +950 WARM 198 0.070 87.6 4.4% 0.0%vs LHP 407 1.4% 11.1% 6.3% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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