TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ COL

Neutral air · 1.04×

CLE @ COL

Coors Field · 8:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 5 mph cross 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

6:10p

+5 ↑

7:10p

+10 ↑

8:10p

+11 ↑

9:10p

+10 ↑

10:10p

conditions build late — the 9:10p window peaks +11

Best of game Kyle Karros conv 16 · vs Bibee ⟷ Brayan Rocchio conv 8 · vs Hughes → edge: Mickey Moniak

ATTACK Tanner Bibee RHP · CLE

leak 95

1.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.42 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Karros +575 D ●●●○○

2 Mickey Moniak +280 C+ ●●○○○

3 Willi Castro +425 D ●●○○○

FADE Gabriel Hughes RHP · COL

leak 46

0.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.43 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brayan Rocchio +750 D ●○○○○

2 Angel Martinez — D ●○○○○

3 Chase Delauter +425 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Mickey Moniak: 10.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 10.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Mickey Moniak ✶ COOL vs Bibee Edge +280 0.273 · 89.3 · 9.5% 10.0% 19.7% F B O C+ 60

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· COL Kyle Karros vs Bibee +575 0.158 · 89.7 · 8.1% 20.0% 13.0% F B O D 48

· COL Willi Castro vs Bibee Edge +425 0.158 · 87.8 · 8.2% 8.3% 11.8% F B O D 47

· CLE Brayan Rocchio HOT vs Hughes Edge +750 0.119 · 86.7 · 4.2% 9.1% 7.8% F B O D 35

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Bibee Edge +575 0.195 · 84.7 · 6.3% 0.0% 14.3% F B O D 46

· CLE Angel Martinez COOL vs Hughes Edge — 0.184 · 87.3 · 6.6% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 40

· COL Tj Rumfield vs Bibee Edge +525 0.154 · 83.8 · 6.0% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 41

· CLE Chase Delauter COOL vs Hughes Edge +425 0.157 · 91.2 · 5.8% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 40

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Hughes Edge +525 0.136 · 88.1 · 4.8% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 37

· COL Troy Johnston vs Bibee Edge — 0.109 · 89.6 · 4.3% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 35

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Hughes Edge +400 0.143 · 89.3 · 5.2% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 35

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Bibee +525 0.121 · 87.3 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 40

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Hughes Edge +900 0.061 · 83.7 · 1.3% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 61.9% ← leak BRK 28.4% OFF 9.7% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

123

Angel Martinez S Edge

8.0% 14.6% 2.8% 7.7% D 40 —

126

Chase Delauter L Edge

8.2% 6.6% 1.5% 6.5% D 40 +425

153

Travis Bazzana L Edge

5.4% 3.6% 2.8% 4.6% D 37 +525

166

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 35 +400

171

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.8% 4.5% 1.1% 3.3% D 35 +750

206

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 23 +900

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.9% usage) carries Hughes's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 69.9% ← leak BRK 15.6% OFF 14.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Mickey Moniak L Edge

9.7% 20.4% 2.0% 10.3% C+ 60 +280

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Kyle Karros R

8.2% 4.8% 11.1% 7.7% D 48 +575

Willi Castro S Edge

10.7% 6.9% 5.1% 8.5% D 47 +425

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

5.9% 1.2% 5.9% 4.8% D 46 +575

112

Tj Rumfield L Edge

5.6% 1.8% 5.5% 4.4% D 41 +525

134

Ezequiel Tovar R

6.0% 6.5% 6.9% 6.3% D 40 +525

169

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.4% 2.4% 1.6% 2.2% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (69.9% usage) carries Bibee's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Moniak Karros

Legend

attack side — vs Bibee fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 6:10p · roof open

Park 1.04× Wind 5 mph cross 73°F open

↑

5 mph · cross

73°F

6:10p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

71°F

7:10p

+10

↑

9 mph · out

68°F

8:10p

+11

↑

11 mph · out

66°F

9:10p · peak

+10

↑

9 mph · out

66°F

10:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 73°F, wind 5 mph E (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Gabriel Hughes · RHP 0.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.43 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 40 D — COOL 123 0.184 87.3 6.6% 25.6%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 28

2 Chase Delauter 40 D +425 COOL 126 0.157 91.2 5.8% 24.1%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 31

3 Travis Bazzana 37 D +525 WARM 153 0.136 88.1 4.8% 17.0%vs RHP 396 9.6% 0.0% 8.6% 34

4 Jose Ramirez 35 D +400 COOL 166 0.143 89.3 5.2% 10.4%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 32

5 Brayan Rocchio 35 D +750 HOT 171 0.119 86.7 4.2% 12.1%vs RHP 384 7.4% 9.1% 7.8% 31

6 Steven Kwan 23 D +900 COOL 206 0.061 83.7 1.3% 3.0%vs RHP 372 1.7% 0.0% 6.6% 38

vs Tanner Bibee · RHP 1.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.42 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mickey Moniak ✶ 60 C+ +280 COOL 17 0.273 89.3 9.5% 22.7%vs RHP 417 17.4% 10.0% 19.7% 27

2 Kyle Karros 48 D +575 WARM 65 0.158 89.7 8.1% 20.0%vs RHP 416 10.6% 20.0% 13.0% 16

3 Willi Castro 47 D +425 WARM 72 0.158 87.8 8.2% 16.4%vs RHP 411 11.2% 8.3% 11.8% 31

4 Jake Mccarthy 46 D +575 COOL 74 0.195 84.7 6.3% 15.0%vs RHP 416 11.1% 0.0% 14.3% 42

5 Tj Rumfield 41 D +525 · 112 0.154 83.8 6.0% 14.6%vs RHP 410 5.6% 0.0% 11.2% 33

6 Ezequiel Tovar 40 D +525 COOL 134 0.121 87.3 7.2% 14.5%vs RHP 408 7.3% 0.0% 8.0% 20

7 Troy Johnston 35 D — WARM 169 0.109 89.6 4.3% 6.8%vs RHP 415 1.1% 0.0% 8.5% 11

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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