TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ CWS

Neutral air · 1.02×

NYM @ CWS

Rate Field · 7:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Munetaka Murakami conv 34 · vs Scott ⟷ Francisco Lindor conv 15 · vs Castillo → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Christian Scott RHP · NYM

leak 87

0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.25 · leakiest side of this game

1 Munetaka Murakami +255 C+ ●●●●●

2 Miguel Vargas +350 C+ ●●●●○

3 Colson Montgomery +305 C ●●●○○

FADE Luis Castillo RHP · SEA

leak 81

1.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.42 · stingy — thin edge

1 Francisco Lindor +290 C ●●○○○

2 Carson Benge +500 D ●●○○○

3 Bo Bichette +625 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: 20.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Scott Edge +255 0.303 · 94.3 · 12.2% 33.3% 35.6% F B O C+ 69

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Scott +350 0.247 · 90.7 · 10.1% 33.3% 22.2% F B O C+ 61

· CWS Colson Montgomery vs Scott Edge +305 0.216 · 88.8 · 9.2% 16.7% 25.3% F B O C 55

· — Francisco Lindor vs Castillo Edge +290 0.187 · 91.4 · 9.7% 16.7% 13.7% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· — Carson Benge COOL vs Castillo Edge +500 0.146 · 89.5 · 8.5% 18.2% 11.8% F B O D 47

· — Bo Bichette vs Castillo +625 0.122 · 89.4 · 7.7% 16.7% 9.2% F B O D 43

· — Brett Baty HOT vs Castillo Edge +500 0.115 · 89.8 · 9.2% 12.5% 11.2% F B O D 43

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Scott Edge +850 0.154 · 87.3 · 5.8% 11.1% 9.7% F B O D 39

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Scott +950 0.133 · 87.8 · 5.6% 9.1% 7.1% F B O D 36

· — Francisco Alvarez COOL vs Castillo +425 0.173 · 90.2 · 12.6% 0.0% 14.0% F B O D 49

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Scott Edge +500 0.177 · 88.9 · 7.8% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 44

· — Marcus Semien COOL vs Castillo +625 0.141 · 86.4 · 8.2% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 43

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Scott Edge +700 0.134 · 89.2 · 5.2% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 36

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Scott Edge +750 0.124 · 87.5 · 6.3% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 36

· — A.J. Ewing vs Castillo Edge +575 0.123 · 89.9 · 8.8% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 67.8% ← leak BRK 28.8% OFF 3.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

24.3% 17.1% 15.4% 20.6% C+ 69 +255

Miguel Vargas R

16.6% 10.7% 13.5% 14.5% C+ 61 +350

Colson Montgomery L Edge

11.7% 10.9% 14.0% 11.9% C 55 +305

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

12.2% 4.4% 5.4% 8.6% D 44 +500

139

Tristan Peters L Edge

5.9% 4.9% 0.0% 4.8% D 39 +850

157

Braden Montgomery S Edge

4.8% 3.0% 2.2% 3.7% D 36 +700

158

Sam Antonacci L Edge

7.3% 4.8% 0.0% 5.6% D 36 +750

164

Chase Meidroth R

4.5% 5.7% 3.8% 4.7% D 36 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (67.8% usage) carries Scott's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 60.3% ← leak BRK 25.5% OFF 14.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.0% 7.7% 6.4% 9.4% C 52 +290

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Francisco Alvarez R

16.3% 15.1% 16.7% 15.9% D 49 +425

Carson Benge L Edge

7.0% 8.8% 6.5% 7.4% D 47 +500

Brett Baty L Edge

8.1% 14.0% 4.0% 8.6% D 43 +500

100

Marcus Semien R

9.5% 2.1% 6.9% 6.8% D 43 +625

101

Bo Bichette R

4.8% 11.2% 0.0% 6.3% D 43 +625

124

A.J. Ewing L Edge

8.5% 12.5% 0.0% 8.0% D 40 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.3% usage) carries Castillo's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Vargas Montgomery Lindor Benge

Legend

attack side — vs Scott fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Munetaka Murakami +255 · 69

Miguel Vargas +350 · 61

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof unknown

Park 1.02× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.02× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Christian Scott · RHP 0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.25 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 69 C+ +255 · 4 0.303 94.3 12.2% 39.0%vs RHP 402 20.5% 33.3% 35.6% 30

2 Miguel Vargas 61 C+ +350 WARM 15 0.247 90.7 10.1% 17.2%vs RHP 392 21.8% 33.3% 22.2% 38

3 Colson Montgomery 55 C +305 WARM 27 0.216 88.8 9.2% 24.7%vs RHP 399 21.9% 16.7% 25.3% 26

4 Andrew Benintendi 44 D +500 COOL 92 0.177 88.9 7.8% 17.3%vs RHP 388 13.3% 0.0% 12.2% 22

5 Tristan Peters 39 D +850 WARM 139 0.154 87.3 5.8% 10.6%vs RHP 377 7.8% 11.1% 9.7% 26

6 Braden Montgomery 36 D +700 · 157 0.134 89.2 5.2% 15.0%vs RHP 383 5.0% 0.0% 9.0% 30

7 Sam Antonacci 36 D +750 COOL 158 0.124 87.5 6.3% 13.6%vs RHP 390 9.0% 0.0% 8.6% 32

8 Chase Meidroth 36 D +950 COOL 164 0.133 87.8 5.6% 16.3%vs RHP 379 8.3% 9.1% 7.1% 34

vs Luis Castillo · RHP 1.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.42 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor 52 C +290 · 40 0.187 91.4 9.7% 17.0%vs RHP 397 12.6% 16.7% 13.7% 37

2 Francisco Alvarez 49 D +425 COOL 52 0.173 90.2 12.6% 26.8%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 19

3 Carson Benge 47 D +500 COOL 73 0.146 89.5 8.5% 15.5%vs RHP 399 10.6% 18.2% 11.8% 33

4 Brett Baty 43 D +500 HOT 97 0.115 89.8 9.2% 12.9%vs RHP 397 7.0% 12.5% 11.2% 15

5 Marcus Semien 43 D +625 COOL 100 0.141 86.4 8.2% 17.2%vs RHP 391 11.5% 0.0% 9.6% 27

6 Bo Bichette 43 D +625 WARM 101 0.122 89.4 7.7% 11.1%vs RHP 389 9.6% 16.7% 9.2% 36

7 A.J. Ewing 40 D +575 · 124 0.123 89.9 8.8% 11.6%vs RHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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