TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ BOS

Suppressed air · 0.91×

SF @ BOS

Fenway Park · 7:15p · 11 ranked batters

Park 0.91× Wind 5 mph in 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

-7 ↑

7:15p

-7 ↑

8:15p

-7 ↑

9:15p

-7 ↑

10:15p

-6 ↑

11:15p

conditions build late — the 11:15p window peaks -6

Best of game Bryce Eldridge conv 23 · vs Sandoval ⟷ Willson Contreras conv 23 · vs Tidwell → edge: Willson Contreras

ATTACK Patrick Sandoval LHP · BOS

leak 87

0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.66 · leakiest side of this game

1 Bryce Eldridge +750 D ●●●●○

2 Drew Gilbert — D ●●●○○

3 Rafael Devers +575 C ●●●○○

FADE Blade Tidwell RHP · SF

leak 3

0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.77 · stingy — thin edge

1 Willson Contreras +425 C ●●●●○

2 Wilyer Abreu +390 D ●●○○○

3 Jarren Duran +700 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Willson Contreras: Match 21.2% · 14D pace 25.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Willson Contreras ✶ COOL vs Tidwell +425 0.248 · 90.2 · 9.8% 25.0% 21.2% F B O C 56

· SF Rafael Devers vs Sandoval +575 0.226 · 92.6 · 8.2% 16.7% 17.1% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Sandoval +750 0.191 · 92.1 · 8.6% 25.0% 20.6% F B O D 49

· SF Drew Gilbert HOT vs Sandoval — 0.127 · 86.2 · 5.1% 27.3% 12.1% F B O D 34

· BOS Wilyer Abreu COOL vs Tidwell Edge +390 0.209 · 90.0 · 9.5% 16.7% 13.7% F B O D 49

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Sandoval Edge +500 0.192 · 87.2 · 7.2% 11.1% 8.8% F B O D 42

· BOS Jarren Duran COOL vs Tidwell Edge +700 0.152 · 89.7 · 8.1% 8.3% 11.1% F B O D 41

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Sandoval — 0.140 · 86.9 · 4.0% 9.1% 7.7% F B O D 31

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela COOL vs Tidwell +750 0.179 · 86.4 · 6.3% 8.3% 7.7% F B O D 39

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Tidwell +950 0.148 · 83.9 · 4.5% 8.3% 6.7% F B O D 33

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Tidwell +850 0.163 · 88.4 · 7.4% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 40.7% ← leak BRK 32.1% OFF 25.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rafael Devers L

12.0% 10.1% 7.6% 10.6% C 50 +575

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Bryce Eldridge L

12.3% 9.3% 15.6% 12.2% D 49 +750

106

Willy Adames R Edge

7.3% 8.4% 13.8% 8.2% D 42 +500

175

Drew Gilbert L

5.2% 4.2% 0.0% 4.1% D 34 —

192

Jung Hoo Lee L

2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 2.5% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (40.7% usage) carries Sandoval's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 47.8% FB 45.1% OFF 5.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Willson Contreras R

15.5% 11.5% 21.6% 13.8% C 56 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

15.6% 11.6% 12.0% 12.7% D 49 +390

116

Jarren Duran L Edge

6.9% 11.7% 7.0% 9.3% D 41 +700

144

Ceddanne Rafaela R

7.1% 3.4% 12.0% 5.8% D 39 +750

151

Andruw Monasterio R

6.9% 7.6% 13.3% 7.8% D 38 +850

187

Caleb Durbin R

2.3% 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% D 33 +950

Read the columns: no single family leads Tidwell's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Eldridge Gilbert Contreras Abreu

Legend

attack side — vs Sandoval fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Willson Contreras +425 · 56

Bryce Eldridge +750 · 49

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 0.91× Wind 5 mph in 71°F open

-7

↑

5 mph · in

71°F

7:15p

-7

↑

5 mph · in

70°F

8:15p

-7

↑

4 mph · in

69°F

9:15p

-7

↑

4 mph · in

67°F

10:15p

-6

↑

3 mph · in

66°F

11:15p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.91× 71°F, wind 5 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Patrick Sandoval · LHP 0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.66 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 50 C +575 · 48 0.226 92.6 8.2% 10.3%vs LHP 397 18.4% 16.7% 17.1% 30

2 Bryce Eldridge 49 D +750 · 53 0.191 92.1 8.6% 20.0%vs LHP 399 19.7% 25.0% 20.6% 32

3 Willy Adames 42 D +500 COOL 106 0.192 87.2 7.2% 11.1%vs LHP 387 14.9% 11.1% 8.8% 23

4 Drew Gilbert 34 D — HOT 175 0.127 86.2 5.1% 8.7% 393 6.5% 27.3% 12.1% 24

5 Jung Hoo Lee 31 D — · 192 0.140 86.9 4.0% 9.1%vs LHP 382 6.0% 9.1% 7.7% 39

vs Blade Tidwell · RHP 0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.77 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras ✶ 56 C +425 COOL 26 0.248 90.2 9.8% 32.2%vs RHP 404 20.5% 25.0% 21.2% 29

2 Wilyer Abreu 49 D +390 COOL 56 0.209 90.0 9.5% 17.1%vs RHP 407 16.1% 16.7% 13.7% 39

3 Jarren Duran 41 D +700 COOL 116 0.152 89.7 8.1% 29.6%vs RHP 399 13.3% 8.3% 11.1% 31

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 39 D +750 COOL 144 0.179 86.4 6.3% 16.4%vs RHP 382 13.0% 8.3% 7.7% 44

5 Andruw Monasterio 38 D +850 COOL 151 0.163 88.4 7.4% 2.2%vs RHP 390 11.5% 0.0% 5.6% 39

6 Caleb Durbin 33 D +950 COOL 187 0.148 83.9 4.5% 20.0%vs RHP 376 9.2% 8.3% 6.7% 40

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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