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Great American Ball Park is live · 1.25×

PIT @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 1:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.14× Wind 3 mph slight_out 78°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

1:40p

+6 ↑

2:40p

+6 ↑

3:40p

+5 ↑

4:40p

+5 ↑

5:40p

best window is early — 1:40p at +6

Best of game Brandon Lowe conv 22 · vs Burns ⟷ Jj Bleday conv 33 · vs Keller → edge: Sal Stewart

ATTACK Chase Burns RHP · CIN

leak 91

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brandon Lowe +290 C+ ●●●○○

2 Bryan Reynolds +400 C ●●○○○

3 Nick Gonzales +750 D ●●○○○

FADE Mitch Keller RHP · PIT

leak 7

1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jj Bleday +255 C+ ●●●●●

2 Sal Stewart +350 C+ ●●●●●

3 Nathaniel Lowe +370 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Sal Stewart: Match 25.1% · 14D pace 38.5%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Keller Edge +255 0.243 · 88.9 · 8.7% 33.3% 33.4% F B O C+ 61

· CIN Sal Stewart ✶ vs Keller +350 0.221 · 90.6 · 9.8% 38.5% 25.1% F B O C+ 64

· PIT Brandon Lowe vs Burns Edge +290 0.237 · 91.0 · 10.2% 16.7% 26.9% F B O C+ 62

· CIN Nathaniel Lowe vs Keller Edge +370 0.211 · 89.3 · 8.3% 16.7% 20.6% F B O C 57

· CIN Elly De La Cruz vs Keller Edge +265 0.228 · 94.3 · 10.0% 14.3% 19.6% F B O C+ 62

· CIN Tyler Stephenson HOT vs Keller +425 0.148 · 91.0 · 8.8% 8.3% 15.8% F B O C 50

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Burns Edge +400 0.185 · 90.8 · 9.7% 7.1% 15.0% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Burns +750 0.096 · 86.2 · 5.1% 14.3% 7.5% F B O D 38

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Keller +350 0.186 · 88.6 · 8.3% 0.0% 21.7% F B O D 49

· PIT Jake Mangum COOL vs Burns Edge — 0.077 · 85.0 · 3.3% 8.3% 9.8% F B O D 33

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Keller +525 0.134 · 88.5 · 7.8% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 44

· CIN Tj Friedl COOL vs Keller Edge — 0.084 · 87.4 · 4.2% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 37

· PIT Marcell Ozuna COOL vs Burns — 0.121 · 89.2 · 8.1% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 43

· PIT Jared Triolo vs Burns +950 0.068 · 87.6 · 4.5% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 56.7% ← leak BRK 37.7% OFF 5.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Brandon Lowe L Edge

16.8% 8.3% 9.3% 12.5% C+ 62 +290

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

11.3% 15.3% 7.7% 11.5% C 54 +400

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

142

Marcell Ozuna R

8.1% 10.3% 0.0% 7.9% D 43 —

174

Nick Gonzales R

2.5% 5.4% 0.0% 3.1% D 38 +750

195

Jake Mangum S Edge

2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% D 33 —

198

Jared Triolo R

2.7% 2.9% 0.0% 2.4% D 33 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.7% usage) carries Burns's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 57.1% BRK 33.7% OFF 9.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Sal Stewart R

16.9% 10.0% 10.3% 13.9% C+ 64 +350

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

19.1% 10.9% 3.8% 14.1% C+ 62 +265

Jj Bleday L Edge

13.4% 8.5% 5.8% 10.6% C+ 61 +255

Nathaniel Lowe L Edge

9.1% 12.5% 11.8% 10.1% C 57 +370

Tyler Stephenson R

13.9% 7.0% 6.2% 11.2% C 50 +425

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Eugenio Suarez R

11.7% 5.6% 6.7% 9.9% D 49 +350

124

Matt Mclain R

9.9% 9.6% 0.0% 8.9% D 44 +525

175

Tj Friedl L Edge

2.9% 4.0% 0.0% 2.6% D 37 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Keller's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lowe Stewart Cruz Bleday Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Burns fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jj Bleday +255 · 61

Sal Stewart +350 · 64

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 1:40p · roof open

Park 1.14× Wind 3 mph slight_out 78°F open

↑

3 mph · slight_out

76°F

1:40p · peak

↑

3 mph · slight_out

76°F

2:40p

↑

2 mph · slight_out

76°F

3:40p

↑

1 mph · slight_out

75°F

4:40p

↑

1 mph · out

74°F

5:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.25× 78°F, wind 3 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Chase Burns · RHP 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 62 C+ +290 · 22 0.237 91.0 10.2% 25.0%vs RHP 393 16.2% 16.7% 26.9% 31

2 Bryan Reynolds 54 C +400 · 55 0.185 90.8 9.7% 18.8%vs RHP 409 13.0% 7.1% 15.0% 34

3 Marcell Ozuna 43 D — COOL 142 0.121 89.2 8.1% 13.8%vs RHP 404 8.5% 0.0% 7.7% 21

4 Nick Gonzales 38 D +750 WARM 174 0.096 86.2 5.1% 11.9%vs RHP 397 7.6% 14.3% 7.5% 50

5 Jake Mangum 33 D — COOL 195 0.077 85.0 3.3% 12.5%vs RHP 384 4.5% 8.3% 9.8% 38

6 Jared Triolo 33 D +950 WARM 198 0.068 87.6 4.5% 5.3%vs RHP 419 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 22

vs Mitch Keller · RHP 1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart ✶ 64 C+ +350 · 18 0.221 90.6 9.8% 23.3%vs RHP 393 15.8% 38.5% 25.1% 32

2 Elly De La Cruz 62 C+ +265 · 23 0.228 94.3 10.0% 19.2%vs RHP 398 16.7% 14.3% 19.6% 36

3 Jj Bleday 61 C+ +255 COOL 24 0.243 88.9 8.7% 24.6%vs RHP 387 20.0% 33.3% 33.4% 31

4 Nathaniel Lowe 57 C +370 WARM 37 0.211 89.3 8.3% 27.9%vs RHP 395 15.4% 16.7% 20.6% 35

5 Tyler Stephenson 50 C +425 HOT 73 0.148 91.0 8.8% 18.2%vs RHP 395 7.0% 8.3% 15.8% 21

6 Eugenio Suarez 49 D +350 WARM 77 0.186 88.6 8.3% 25.6%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 21.7% 22

7 Matt Mclain 44 D +525 COOL 124 0.134 88.5 7.8% 10.0%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 6

8 Tj Friedl 37 D — COOL 175 0.084 87.4 4.2% 7.3%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 13

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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