TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ TOR

Suppressed air · 0.95×

STL @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 1:37p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 5 mph slight_out 70°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-3 ↑

1:37p

-4 ↑

2:37p

-4 ↑

3:37p

-4 ↑

4:37p

-6 ↑

5:37p

best window is early — 1:37p at -3

Best of game José Fermín conv 10 · vs Scherzer ⟷ Kazuma Okamoto conv 13 · vs Liberatore → edge: Jordan Walker

ATTACK Max Scherzer RHP · TOR

leak 99

3.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.38 · leakiest side of this game

1 José Fermín — D ●○○○○

2 Jordan Walker +320 C ●○○○○

3 Alec Burleson +370 C ●○○○○

FADE Matthew Liberatore LHP · STL

leak 82

1.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.75 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kazuma Okamoto +320 C ●●○○○

2 George Springer +425 D ●●○○○

3 Brandon Valenzuela — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jordan Walker: Match 18.8% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Liberatore Edge +320 0.223 · 90.6 · 11.0% 8.3% 17.9% F B O C 56

· STL Jordan Walker ✶ COOL vs Scherzer +320 0.213 · 93.2 · 12.3% 0.0% 18.8% F B O C 59

· STL Alec Burleson vs Scherzer Edge +370 0.177 · 91.7 · 11.2% 0.0% 13.2% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· TOR George Springer vs Liberatore Edge +425 0.167 · 88.7 · 8.3% 16.7% 9.4% F B O D 46

· STL José Fermín vs Scherzer — 0.123 · 86.2 · 5.2% 10.0% 9.0% F B O D 38

· TOR Brandon Valenzuela vs Liberatore Edge — 0.162 · 88.1 · 8.6% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 43

· TOR Jesús Sánchez COOL vs Liberatore — 0.161 · 90.8 · 9.7% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 45

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Scherzer +500 0.135 · 89.1 · 7.8% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 39

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Scherzer Edge +475 0.141 · 89.9 · 8.9% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 45

· TOR Andres Gimenez vs Liberatore — 0.121 · 85.9 · 5.8% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 33

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Scherzer Edge +750 0.128 · 86.1 · 9.1% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 42

· STL Masyn Winn vs Scherzer +750 0.079 · 88.1 · 5.9% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 34

· TOR Daulton Varsho COOL vs Liberatore +525 0.134 · 86.2 · 7.6% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 38

· TOR Nathan Lukes COOL vs Liberatore — 0.109 · 86.5 · 3.0% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 31

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Liberatore Edge +850 0.127 · 85.0 · 4.6% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.5% BRK 34.1% OFF 17.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jordan Walker R

14.0% 12.1% 14.7% 13.5% C 59 +320

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.0% 11.7% 11.0% 11.2% C 52 +370

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

109

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

9.9% 3.6% 2.1% 7.2% D 45 +475

144

Nathan Church L Edge

8.5% 7.0% 5.8% 7.4% D 42 +750

159

Ivan Herrera R

5.3% 5.3% 7.1% 5.6% D 39 +500

171

José Fermín R

2.9% 2.5% 0.0% 2.4% D 38 —

188

Masyn Winn R

3.5% 2.2% 3.3% 3.1% D 34 +750

Read the columns: no single family leads Scherzer's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 44.6% BRK 40.2% OFF 14.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R Edge

15.8% 8.3% 17.6% 13.8% C 56 +320

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

107

George Springer R Edge

8.6% 6.4% 8.7% 7.9% D 46 +425

108

Jesús Sánchez L

8.4% 19.6% 0.0% 10.7% D 45 —

135

Brandon Valenzuela S Edge

5.0% 15.4% 12.0% 8.4% D 43 —

168

Daulton Varsho L

9.1% 2.7% 5.1% 6.6% D 38 +525

190

Ernie Clement R Edge

2.4% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4% D 34 +850

193

Andres Gimenez L

4.1% 2.5% 5.7% 3.8% D 33 —

206

Nathan Lukes L

0.0% 2.0% 2.7% 1.0% D 31 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Liberatore's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Walker Okamoto Springer

Legend

attack side — vs Scherzer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 1:37p · roof retractable

Park 0.95× Wind 5 mph slight_out 70°F retractable

-3

↑

5 mph · cross

68°F

1:37p · peak

-4

↑

5 mph · cross

68°F

2:37p

-4

↑

5 mph · cross

68°F

3:37p

-4

↑

5 mph · cross

68°F

4:37p

-6

↑

7 mph · cross

68°F

5:37p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.95× 70°F, wind 5 mph ENE (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Max Scherzer · RHP 3.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.38 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker ✶ 59 C +320 COOL 32 0.213 93.2 12.3% 29.3%vs RHP 406 17.2% 0.0% 18.8% 39

2 Alec Burleson 52 C +370 · 62 0.177 91.7 11.2% 19.1%vs RHP 407 14.2% 0.0% 13.2% 43

3 Jj Wetherholt 45 D +475 · 109 0.141 89.9 8.9% 17.2%vs RHP 391 16.7% 0.0% 10.3% 43

4 Nathan Church 42 D +750 COOL 144 0.128 86.1 9.1% 17.6%vs RHP 388 8.1% 0.0% 9.6% 28

5 Ivan Herrera 39 D +500 · 159 0.135 89.1 7.8% 17.1%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 41

6 José Fermín 38 D — WARM 171 0.123 86.2 5.2% 9.5%vs RHP 388 6.8% 10.0% 9.0% 29

7 Masyn Winn 34 D +750 · 188 0.079 88.1 5.9% 9.5%vs RHP 390 3.8% 0.0% 9.0% 36

vs Matthew Liberatore · LHP 1.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.75 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 56 C +320 COOL 40 0.223 90.6 11.0% 20.8%vs LHP 397 18.9% 8.3% 17.9% 33

2 George Springer 46 D +425 · 107 0.167 88.7 8.3% 9.5%vs LHP 393 11.8% 16.7% 9.4% 41

3 Jesús Sánchez 45 D — COOL 108 0.161 90.8 9.7% 0.0%vs LHP 398 10.3% 0.0% 11.0% 2

4 Brandon Valenzuela 43 D — · 135 0.162 88.1 8.6% 25.0%vs LHP 394 10.3% 0.0% 11.1% 14

5 Daulton Varsho 38 D +525 COOL 168 0.134 86.2 7.6% 9.1%vs LHP 386 6.2% 0.0% 8.7% 38

6 Ernie Clement 34 D +850 COOL 190 0.127 85.0 4.6% 9.1%vs LHP 375 7.7% 0.0% 7.3% 47

7 Andres Gimenez 33 D — WARM 193 0.121 85.9 5.8% 20.0%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 26

8 Nathan Lukes 31 D — COOL 206 0.109 86.5 3.0% 9.6% 378 5.8% 0.0% 8.6% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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