TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.99×

BOS @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 7:20p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.33× Wind 8 mph out 92°F Roof open

Hourly window

+19 ↑

4:20p

+19 ↑

5:20p

+18 ↑

6:20p

+17 ↑

7:20p

+16 ↑

8:20p

best window is early — 4:20p at +19

Best of game Ceddanne Rafaela conv 34 · vs Sheehan ⟷ Max Muncy conv 28 · vs Bennett → edge: Willson Contreras

ATTACK Emmet Sheehan RHP · LAD

leak 84

1.68 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.61 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ceddanne Rafaela +625 C ●●●●●

2 Willson Contreras +330 B ●●●●○

3 Wilyer Abreu +350 C ●●○○○

FADE Jake Bennett LHP · BOS

leak 3

0.68 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.58 · stingy — thin edge

1 Max Muncy — C+ ●●●●○

2 Dalton Rushing +500 C ●●●○○

3 Shohei Ohtani +225 C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Willson Contreras: 14.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 14.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela vs Sheehan +625 0.170 · 86.5 · 6.9% 42.9% 25.5% F B O C 56

· BOS Willson Contreras ✶ vs Sheehan +330 0.258 · 90.6 · 11.7% 14.3% 43.8% F B O B 70

· LAD Max Muncy vs Bennett — 0.243 · 90.2 · 9.1% 27.3% 29.6% F B O C+ 63

· LAD Dalton Rushing vs Bennett +500 0.224 · 89.5 · 8.6% 18.2% 21.1% F B O C 55

· LAD Shohei Ohtani vs Bennett +225 0.254 · 93.8 · 10.1% 15.4% 19.8% F B O C+ 64

· BOS Wilyer Abreu COOL vs Sheehan Edge +350 0.184 · 89.7 · 10.8% 7.1% 16.1% F B O C 58

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Bennett Edge +390 0.190 · 88.9 · 6.9% 7.7% 15.0% F B O C 51

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Sheehan +700 0.196 · 89.1 · 9.4% 8.3% 13.9% F B O C 56

· BOS Jarren Duran COOL vs Sheehan Edge +500 0.139 · 89.2 · 9.6% 0.0% 14.2% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Bennett +500 0.133 · 88.9 · 6.3% 18.2% 9.3% F B O D 43

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Sheehan +700 0.153 · 84.2 · 4.8% 7.1% 14.0% F B O D 45

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Bennett Edge +425 0.173 · 90.6 · 7.0% 8.3% 12.4% F B O D 48

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez COOL vs Bennett Edge +390 0.147 · 89.0 · 7.4% 0.0% 13.5% F B O D 43

· BOS Carlos Narvaez COOL vs Sheehan +575 0.089 · 91.5 · 8.2% 0.0% 13.2% F B O D 43

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Bennett +425 0.183 · 90.2 · 7.6% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 49

· BOS Masataka Yoshida COOL vs Sheehan Edge — 0.113 · 88.3 · 5.4% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 43

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 42.7% ← leak BRK 40.9% OFF 16.4% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Willson Contreras R

11.9% 16.1% 21.9% 14.1% B 70 +330

Neutral · 4

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

12.2% 12.3% 12.9% 12.4% C 58 +350

Andruw Monasterio R

8.8% 9.6% 16.7% 9.7% C 56 +700

Ceddanne Rafaela R

3.9% 5.4% 7.1% 4.8% C 56 +625

Jarren Duran L Edge

12.7% 7.0% 6.8% 9.9% C 51 +500

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

111

Caleb Durbin R

2.7% 1.4% 3.6% 2.4% D 45 +700

134

Carlos Narvaez R

7.8% 8.8% 0.0% 7.1% D 43 +575

137

Masataka Yoshida L Edge

3.4% 0.0% 2.4% 2.6% D 43 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.7% usage) carries Sheehan's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 64.4% ← leak OFF 25.5% BRK 10.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Shohei Ohtani L

21.1% 14.9% 10.3% 16.7% C+ 64 +225

Max Muncy L

16.7% 6.8% 15.0% 13.8% C+ 63 —

Dalton Rushing L

13.0% 2.9% 19.5% 12.5% C 55 +500

Andy Pages R Edge

7.5% 9.7% 8.4% 8.0% C 51 +390

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Freddie Freeman L

9.9% 9.6% 9.3% 9.7% D 49 +425

Mookie Betts R Edge

9.9% 6.7% 3.4% 8.0% D 48 +425

133

Teoscar Hernandez R Edge

8.2% 8.3% 13.2% 9.2% D 43 +390

140

Kyle Tucker L

9.7% 1.5% 3.4% 6.6% D 43 +500

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.4% usage) carries Bennett's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Contreras Rafaela Ohtani Muncy Rushing Tucker

Legend

attack side — vs Sheehan fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Ceddanne Rafaela +625 · 56

Max Muncy — · 63

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 4:20p · roof open

Park 1.33× Wind 8 mph out 92°F open

+19

↑

8 mph · out

92°F

4:20p · peak

+19

↑

8 mph · out

89°F

5:20p

+18

↑

7 mph · out

86°F

6:20p

+17

↑

6 mph · out

82°F

7:20p

+16

↑

5 mph · out

78°F

8:20p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.99× 92°F, wind 8 mph SW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Emmet Sheehan · RHP 1.68 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.61 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras ✶ 70 B +330 · 4 0.258 90.6 11.7% 34.0%vs RHP 406 20.6% 14.3% 43.8% 21

2 Wilyer Abreu 58 C +350 COOL 35 0.184 89.7 10.8% 13.6%vs RHP 406 14.0% 7.1% 16.1% 35

3 Andruw Monasterio 56 C +700 COOL 43 0.196 89.1 9.4% 3.2%vs RHP 390 17.1% 8.3% 13.9% 29

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 56 C +625 WARM 44 0.170 86.5 6.9% 17.5%vs RHP 376 13.2% 42.9% 25.5% 42

5 Jarren Duran 51 C +500 COOL 66 0.139 89.2 9.6% 26.7%vs RHP 398 11.7% 0.0% 14.2% 39

6 Caleb Durbin 45 D +700 COOL 111 0.153 84.2 4.8% 20.0%vs RHP 373 8.7% 7.1% 14.0% 41

7 Carlos Narvaez 43 D +575 COOL 134 0.089 91.5 8.2% 10.3%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 5

8 Masataka Yoshida 43 D — COOL 137 0.113 88.3 5.4% 9.1%vs RHP 367 9.8% 0.0% 10.7% 33

vs Jake Bennett · LHP 0.68 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.58 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani 64 C+ +225 · 20 0.254 93.8 10.1% 31.2%vs LHP 405 19.8% 15.4% 19.8% 37

2 Max Muncy 63 C+ — · 21 0.243 90.2 9.1% 28.6%vs LHP 411 18.9% 27.3% 29.6% 25

3 Dalton Rushing 55 C +500 WARM 48 0.224 89.5 8.6% 8.3%vs LHP 400 10.7% 18.2% 21.1% 18

4 Andy Pages 51 C +390 COOL 65 0.190 88.9 6.9% 16.1%vs LHP 390 13.9% 7.7% 15.0% 40

5 Freddie Freeman 49 D +425 COOL 83 0.183 90.2 7.6% 15.4%vs LHP 398 12.1% 0.0% 11.3% 44

6 Mookie Betts 48 D +425 · 93 0.173 90.6 7.0% 6.1%vs LHP 389 10.3% 8.3% 12.4% 38

7 Teoscar Hernandez 43 D +390 COOL 133 0.147 89.0 7.4% 16.7%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 35

8 Kyle Tucker 43 D +500 WARM 140 0.133 88.9 6.3% 7.7%vs LHP 397 6.8% 18.2% 9.3% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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