TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.44×

TEX @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 2:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.11× Wind 7 mph in 93°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

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1:10p

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2:10p

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3:10p

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4:10p

+1 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 5:10p window peaks +1

Best of game Jeremy Peña conv 36 · vs Rocker ⟷ Joc Pederson conv 32 · vs Lambert → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Kumar Rocker RHP · TEX

leak 87

1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jeremy Peña +500 C ●●●●●

2 Christian Walker +370 C+ ●●●●○

3 Isaac Paredes +475 C ●●●○○

FADE Peter Lambert RHP · HOU

leak 8

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.41 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joc Pederson +425 C+ ●●●●●

2 Wyatt Langford +350 C ●●●●●

3 Jake Burger +350 C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: 11.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· HOU Jeremy Peña HOT vs Rocker +500 0.190 · 88.5 · 6.4% 45.5% 25.8% F B O C 55

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Lambert Edge +425 0.261 · 92.0 · 8.8% 33.3% 29.7% F B O C+ 65

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs Lambert +350 0.225 · 89.6 · 7.4% 30.8% 28.3% F B O C 58

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Rocker +370 0.222 · 89.5 · 8.6% 22.2% 29.9% F B O C+ 61

· TEX Jake Burger vs Lambert +350 0.187 · 90.0 · 8.6% 27.3% 24.2% F B O C 56

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Rocker +475 0.171 · 86.5 · 6.6% 25.0% 17.9% F B O C 50

· HOU Yordan Alvarez vs Rocker Edge +220 0.317 · 94.7 · 11.7% 0.0% 35.2% F B O C+ 67

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Rocker +525 0.159 · 89.5 · 9.2% 11.1% 11.5% F B O C 50

· TEX Corey Seager HOT vs Lambert Edge +320 0.195 · 91.2 · 10.2% 0.0% 16.5% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Rocker +575 0.166 · 87.9 · 6.6% 20.0% 19.0% F B O D 49

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Lambert +750 0.176 · 88.5 · 6.5% 15.4% 14.0% F B O D 49

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Lambert Edge +400 0.161 · 92.2 · 8.7% 7.7% 9.2% F B O D 49

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Rocker +525 0.154 · 85.6 · 6.3% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 41

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Rocker — 0.114 · 86.0 · 3.1% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 35

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Lambert Edge +625 0.145 · 88.0 · 6.2% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 43

· TEX Alejandro Osuna COOL vs Lambert Edge — 0.043 · 86.6 · 2.0% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 49.7% ← leak BRK 26.4% OFF 23.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Joc Pederson L Edge

14.2% 11.9% 4.1% 11.2% C+ 65 +425

Wyatt Langford R

5.6% 12.2% 15.8% 8.5% C 58 +350

Jake Burger R

10.7% 12.8% 10.0% 11.4% C 56 +350

Corey Seager L Edge

15.3% 16.1% 14.8% 15.4% C 54 +320

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Ezequiel Duran R

8.0% 6.7% 0.0% 6.5% D 49 +750

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

9.6% 17.5% 9.3% 11.6% D 49 +400

141

Evan Carter L Edge

7.9% 5.1% 0.0% 5.9% D 43 +625

211

Alejandro Osuna L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 0.6% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.7% usage) carries Lambert's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 56.3% ← leak BRK 38.3% OFF 4.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

19.3% 24.1% 9.4% 18.5% C+ 67 +220

Christian Walker R

8.6% 10.8% 13.3% 9.8% C+ 61 +370

Jeremy Peña R

4.2% 6.6% 13.3% 5.6% C 55 +500

Cam Smith R

9.0% 15.8% 19.2% 11.5% C 50 +525

Isaac Paredes R

7.8% 3.8% 2.3% 6.0% C 50 +475

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Yainer Diaz R

7.1% 1.9% 7.4% 5.5% D 49 +575

148

Jose Altuve R

6.0% 5.8% 0.0% 5.4% D 41 +525

182

Christian Vazquez R

1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.3% usage) carries Rocker's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Langford Burger Duran Alvarez Walker Peña Paredes Diaz

Legend

attack side — vs Rocker fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 6

Jeremy Peña +500 · 55

Joc Pederson +425 · 65

Wyatt Langford +350 · 58

Christian Walker +370 · 61

Jake Burger +350 · 56

Yainer Diaz +575 · 49

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.11× Wind 7 mph in 93°F retractable

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7 mph · in

90°F

1:10p

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7 mph · in

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2:10p

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7 mph · in

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94°F

5:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.44× 93°F, wind 7 mph NNW (in) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Peter Lambert · RHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.41 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 65 C+ +425 · 12 0.261 92.0 8.8% 31.8%vs RHP 394 22.4% 33.3% 29.7% 27

2 Wyatt Langford 58 C +350 WARM 34 0.225 89.6 7.4% 21.9%vs RHP 401 18.3% 30.8% 28.3% 40

3 Jake Burger 56 C +350 WARM 39 0.187 90.0 8.6% 24.6%vs RHP 398 16.2% 27.3% 24.2% 31

4 Corey Seager 54 C +320 HOT 54 0.195 91.2 10.2% 25.7%vs RHP 394 17.0% 0.0% 16.5% 4

5 Ezequiel Duran 49 D +750 · 81 0.176 88.5 6.5% 22.2%vs RHP 392 13.2% 15.4% 14.0% 38

6 Brandon Nimmo 49 D +400 COOL 85 0.161 92.2 8.7% 12.3%vs RHP 404 9.0% 7.7% 9.2% 34

7 Evan Carter 43 D +625 COOL 141 0.145 88.0 6.2% 14.8%vs RHP 374 9.2% 0.0% 8.6% 24

8 Alejandro Osuna 29 D — COOL 211 0.043 86.6 2.0% 5.0%vs RHP 364 2.4% 0.0% 6.7% 19

vs Kumar Rocker · RHP 1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 67 C+ +220 · 9 0.317 94.7 11.7% 28.0%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 35.2% 32

2 Christian Walker 61 C+ +370 COOL 25 0.222 89.5 8.6% 27.3%vs RHP 391 19.2% 22.2% 29.9% 23

3 Jeremy Peña 55 C +500 HOT 47 0.190 88.5 6.4% 28.2%vs RHP 387 15.1% 45.5% 25.8% 36

4 Cam Smith 50 C +525 COOL 69 0.159 89.5 9.2% 18.4%vs RHP 411 12.1% 11.1% 11.5% 22

5 Isaac Paredes 50 C +475 COOL 72 0.171 86.5 6.6% 18.8%vs RHP 377 12.3% 25.0% 17.9% 42

6 Yainer Diaz 49 D +575 · 78 0.166 87.9 6.6% 26.7%vs RHP 398 11.3% 20.0% 19.0% 28

7 Jose Altuve 41 D +525 COOL 148 0.154 85.6 6.3% 22.2%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 36

8 Christian Vazquez 35 D — COOL 182 0.114 86.0 3.1% 13.3%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 12

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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