TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ LAA

Angel Stadium is live · 1.49×

MIL @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 3:15p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 8 mph out 95°F Roof open

Hourly window

+10 ↑

12:15p

+11 ↑

1:15p

+12 ↑

2:15p

+12 ↑

3:15p

+12 ↑

4:15p

the 2:15p window peaks +12

Best of game Jo Adell conv 21 · vs Misiorowski ⟷ Jake Bauers conv 21 · vs Ureña → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Jacob Misiorowski RHP · MIL

leak 95

0.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jo Adell +525 D ●●●○○

2 Vaughn Grissom +850 D ●●○○○

3 Jorge Soler +475 D ●●○○○

FADE Walbert Ureña RHP · LAA

leak 23

0.58 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.32 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jake Bauers +400 C ●●●○○

2 Brice Turang +700 D ●●○○○

3 Christian Yelich +625 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: 13.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 18.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ vs Ureña Edge +400 0.231 · 92.7 · 8.7% 18.2% 24.5% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· LAA Jo Adell vs Misiorowski +525 0.158 · 89.7 · 5.7% 25.0% 17.4% F B O D 41

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Ureña Edge +700 0.195 · 90.6 · 6.9% 16.7% 14.4% F B O D 47

· LAA Vaughn Grissom vs Misiorowski +850 0.149 · 89.1 · 5.2% 16.7% 12.7% F B O D 38

· LAA Jorge Soler COOL vs Misiorowski +475 0.170 · 88.6 · 6.5% 9.1% 13.9% F B O D 41

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Ureña Edge +625 0.145 · 89.0 · 7.4% 10.0% 8.1% F B O D 40

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Ureña — 0.120 · 88.1 · 4.7% 10.0% 7.8% F B O D 35

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Misiorowski +400 0.213 · 90.1 · 8.2% 0.0% 16.5% F B O D 47

· LAA Zach Neto vs Misiorowski +475 0.199 · 89.3 · 6.9% 0.0% 14.5% F B O D 44

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Ureña +425 0.184 · 91.7 · 8.3% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 46

· MIL Garrett Mitchell vs Ureña Edge +525 0.168 · 92.8 · 9.0% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 44

· LAA Josh Lowe COOL vs Misiorowski Edge +750 0.147 · 88.8 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 36

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Misiorowski — 0.131 · 87.3 · 5.3% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 33

· MIL William Contreras COOL vs Ureña +525 0.124 · 89.8 · 6.4% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 37

· LAA Nolan Schanuel vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.111 · 87.5 · 3.1% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.8% ← leak OFF 31.7% BRK 15.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jake Bauers L Edge

14.3% 13.3% 11.9% 13.5% C 56 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Brice Turang L Edge

9.9% 1.9% 9.5% 8.3% D 47 +700

106

Jackson Chourio R

12.1% 3.4% 14.9% 11.8% D 46 +425

128

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

15.9% 8.0% 12.1% 13.8% D 44 +525

158

Christian Yelich L Edge

7.3% 13.0% 11.8% 9.1% D 40 +625

176

William Contreras R

7.9% 0.0% 8.2% 7.3% D 37 +525

185

Joey Ortiz R

3.3% 0.0% 6.3% 4.1% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.8% usage) carries Ureña's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 76.9% ← leak BRK 21.2% OFF 1.9% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Mike Trout R

16.5% 27.0% 12.5% 17.8% D 47 +400

125

Zach Neto R

15.2% 8.6% 11.1% 12.7% D 44 +475

149

Jo Adell R

8.1% 8.8% 7.9% 8.3% D 41 +525

150

Jorge Soler R

13.7% 10.0% 0.0% 11.1% D 41 +475

169

Vaughn Grissom R

9.0% 7.4% 0.0% 7.1% D 38 +850

180

Josh Lowe L Edge

13.7% 2.8% 7.4% 9.6% D 36 +750

197

Oswald Peraza R

6.5% 7.4% 12.0% 7.5% D 33 —

213

Nolan Schanuel L Edge

3.1% 2.8% 0.0% 2.5% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (76.9% usage) carries Misiorowski's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Turang Adell Grissom

Legend

attack side — vs Misiorowski fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 12:15p · roof open

Park 0.99× Wind 8 mph out 95°F open

+10

↑

8 mph · out

88°F

12:15p

+11

↑

9 mph · out

92°F

1:15p

+12

↑

10 mph · out

95°F

2:15p · peak

+12

↑

10 mph · out

94°F

3:15p

+12

↑

10 mph · out

94°F

4:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.49× 95°F, wind 8 mph SW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Walbert Ureña · RHP 0.58 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.32 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 56 C +400 WARM 45 0.231 92.7 8.7% 36.4%vs RHP 402 20.9% 18.2% 24.5% 27

2 Brice Turang 47 D +700 COOL 99 0.195 90.6 6.9% 28.1%vs RHP 407 12.3% 16.7% 14.4% 36

3 Jackson Chourio 46 D +425 · 106 0.184 91.7 8.3% 17.2%vs RHP 402 14.3% 0.0% 11.0% 39

4 Garrett Mitchell 44 D +525 · 128 0.168 92.8 9.0% 25.8%vs RHP 415 8.0% 0.0% 10.8% 25

5 Christian Yelich 40 D +625 WARM 158 0.145 89.0 7.4% 14.3%vs RHP 404 6.9% 10.0% 8.1% 35

6 William Contreras 37 D +525 COOL 176 0.124 89.8 6.4% 17.2%vs RHP 419 9.1% 0.0% 7.8% 33

7 Joey Ortiz 35 D — WARM 185 0.120 88.1 4.7% 12.1%vs RHP 395 5.6% 10.0% 7.8% 19

vs Jacob Misiorowski · RHP 0.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 47 D +400 COOL 98 0.213 90.1 8.2% 24.1%vs RHP 409 15.7% 0.0% 16.5% 32

2 Zach Neto 44 D +475 · 125 0.199 89.3 6.9% 18.7%vs RHP 402 16.3% 0.0% 14.5% 29

3 Jo Adell 41 D +525 WARM 149 0.158 89.7 5.7% 10.7%vs RHP 410 12.5% 25.0% 17.4% 26

4 Jorge Soler 41 D +475 COOL 150 0.170 88.6 6.5% 29.7%vs RHP 400 12.8% 9.1% 13.9% 22

5 Vaughn Grissom 38 D +850 · 169 0.149 89.1 5.2% 20.0%vs RHP 390 11.1% 16.7% 12.7% 35

6 Josh Lowe 36 D +750 COOL 180 0.147 88.8 6.0% 16.0%vs RHP 396 10.1% 0.0% 8.4% 11

7 Oswald Peraza 33 D — COOL 197 0.131 87.3 5.3% 9.1%vs RHP 386 6.2% 0.0% 8.3% 8

8 Nolan Schanuel 28 D — · 213 0.111 87.5 3.1% 8.9%vs RHP 372 6.5% 0.0% 6.7% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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