TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ SEA

Neutral air · 1.04×

MIN @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 4:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 4 mph slight_out 72°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+3 ↑

1:10p

+0 ↑

2:10p

-1 ↑

3:10p

-2 ↑

4:10p

-3 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at +3

Best of game Dominic Canzone conv 25 · vs Bradley ⟷ Trevor Larnach conv 23 · vs Kirby → edge: Dominic Canzone

ATTACK Taj Bradley RHP · MIN

leak 87

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.26 · leakiest side of this game

1 Dominic Canzone +400 C+ ●●●●○

2 Randy Arozarena +475 C ●●●○○

3 Cal Raleigh +330 D ●●○○○

FADE George Kirby RHP · SEA

leak 58

1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · stingy — thin edge

1 Trevor Larnach +575 D ●●●○○

2 Brooks Lee +575 D ●●○○○

3 Kody Clemens +370 C+ ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dominic Canzone: 14.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Dominic Canzone ✶ vs Bradley Edge +400 0.264 · 92.4 · 11.8% 16.7% 33.1% F B O C+ 64

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Bradley +475 0.166 · 91.0 · 8.8% 23.1% 17.6% F B O C 50

· MIN Kody Clemens COOL vs Kirby Edge +370 0.246 · 92.6 · 9.6% 8.3% 16.3% F B O C+ 60

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Kirby Edge +575 0.157 · 87.3 · 7.5% 28.6% 16.6% F B O D 45

· SEA Cal Raleigh HOT vs Bradley Edge +330 0.143 · 88.4 · 10.8% 16.7% 15.5% F B O D 49

· MIN Brooks Lee COOL vs Kirby Edge +575 0.179 · 87.6 · 5.3% 16.7% 12.8% F B O D 45

· SEA Cole Young vs Bradley Edge +625 0.152 · 88.9 · 7.2% 15.4% 10.9% F B O D 45

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Bradley +475 0.162 · 90.0 · 9.2% 15.4% 10.2% F B O D 49

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Kirby +425 0.176 · 89.6 · 9.6% 8.3% 12.1% F B O D 49

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Kirby +750 0.084 · 84.9 · 4.6% 9.1% 8.0% F B O D 32

· SEA Colt Emerson COOL vs Bradley Edge +750 0.154 · 85.8 · 6.9% 0.0% 12.5% F B O D 42

· MIN Josh Bell COOL vs Kirby Edge +475 0.163 · 89.9 · 8.6% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 45

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Bradley Edge +525 0.095 · 87.7 · 6.6% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 36

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Kirby Edge — 0.118 · 89.8 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 36

· MIN Austin Martin COOL vs Kirby — 0.079 · 87.2 · 3.9% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.3% ← leak BRK 39.1% OFF 7.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kody Clemens L Edge

9.3% 21.3% 11.4% 12.4% C+ 60 +370

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Royce Lewis R

13.9% 8.8% 8.7% 11.8% D 49 +425

112

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.2% 0.0% 1.2% 3.8% D 45 +575

115

Josh Bell S Edge

9.9% 13.6% 6.0% 9.8% D 45 +475

121

Trevor Larnach L Edge

8.3% 8.3% 3.0% 7.5% D 45 +575

178

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.6% 12.5% 6.5% 6.8% D 36 —

203

Luke Keaschall R

3.5% 2.4% 0.0% 2.8% D 32 +750

208

Austin Martin R

2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.3% usage) carries Kirby's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 70.8% ← leak OFF 20.0% BRK 9.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Dominic Canzone L Edge

17.2% 8.5% 16.2% 14.6% C+ 64 +400

Randy Arozarena R

8.6% 6.2% 8.1% 8.0% C 50 +475

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Cal Raleigh S Edge

10.2% 15.0% 13.6% 12.1% D 49 +330

Julio Rodríguez R

9.0% 7.7% 8.6% 8.7% D 49 +475

114

Cole Young L Edge

4.8% 2.0% 9.5% 5.4% D 45 +625

145

Colt Emerson L Edge

4.9% 4.3% 5.3% 4.9% D 42 +750

179

Josh Naylor L Edge

4.1% 1.8% 7.6% 4.5% D 36 +525

Read the columns: the fastball family (70.8% usage) carries Bradley's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lee Larnach Canzone Arozarena Raleigh Young

Legend

attack side — vs Bradley fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.04× Wind 4 mph slight_out 72°F retractable

↑

4 mph · slight_out

72°F

1:10p · peak

↑

5 mph · cross

74°F

2:10p

-1

↑

6 mph · cross

72°F

3:10p

-2

↑

8 mph · cross

70°F

4:10p

-3

↑

9 mph · cross

68°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 72°F, wind 4 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs George Kirby · RHP 1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 60 C+ +370 COOL 30 0.246 92.6 9.6% 19.4%vs RHP 390 17.9% 8.3% 16.3% 38

2 Royce Lewis 49 D +425 WARM 82 0.176 89.6 9.6% 16.7%vs RHP 398 16.2% 8.3% 12.1% 36

3 Brooks Lee 45 D +575 COOL 112 0.179 87.6 5.3% 20.0%vs RHP 369 14.9% 16.7% 12.8% 38

4 Josh Bell 45 D +475 COOL 115 0.163 89.9 8.6% 19.2%vs RHP 404 9.5% 0.0% 10.8% 28

5 Trevor Larnach 45 D +575 WARM 121 0.157 87.3 7.5% 14.8%vs RHP 400 9.2% 28.6% 16.6% 23

6 Victor Caratini 36 D — COOL 178 0.118 89.8 7.2% 16.7%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 25

7 Luke Keaschall 32 D +750 WARM 203 0.084 84.9 4.6% 8.8%vs RHP 370 5.3% 9.1% 8.0% 29

8 Austin Martin 30 D — COOL 208 0.079 87.2 3.9% 4.0%vs RHP 392 1.7% 0.0% 7.4% 19

vs Taj Bradley · RHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.26 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone ✶ 64 C+ +400 · 13 0.264 92.4 11.8% 27.8%vs RHP 403 17.2% 16.7% 33.1% 34

2 Randy Arozarena 50 C +475 WARM 76 0.166 91.0 8.8% 25.0%vs RHP 394 13.0% 23.1% 17.6% 40

3 Cal Raleigh 49 D +330 HOT 79 0.143 88.4 10.8% 12.9%vs RHP 393 12.6% 16.7% 15.5% 25

4 Julio Rodríguez 49 D +475 · 84 0.162 90.0 9.2% 16.0%vs RHP 409 15.9% 15.4% 10.2% 43

5 Cole Young 45 D +625 · 114 0.152 88.9 7.2% 18.2%vs RHP 387 12.1% 15.4% 10.9% 47

6 Colt Emerson 42 D +750 COOL 145 0.154 85.8 6.9% 29.4%vs RHP 369 9.1% 0.0% 12.5% 30

7 Josh Naylor 36 D +525 COOL 179 0.095 87.7 6.6% 12.1%vs RHP 390 6.6% 0.0% 8.7% 44

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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