TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ NYM

Citi Field is live · 1.69×

MIA @ NYM

Citi Field · 1:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 15 mph out 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

+13 ↑

1:40p

+13 ↑

2:40p

+11 ↑

3:40p

+10 ↑

4:40p

+10 ↑

5:40p

best window is early — 1:40p at +13

Best of game Francisco Lindor conv 20 · vs Alcantara ⟷ Kyle Stowers conv 27 · vs Proxy → edge: Kyle Stowers

ATTACK Sandy Alcantara RHP · MIA

leak 66

1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.07 · leakiest side of this game

1 Francisco Lindor +400 D ●●●○○

2 Marcus Semien — D ●●●○○

3 Francisco Alvarez +425 D ●○○○○

FADE NYM Bullpen Proxy · PHI

leak 53

1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Stowers +330 C ●●●●○

2 Heriberto Hernández — C ●●○○○

3 Owen Caissie +400 C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Stowers: Match 23.5% · 14D pace 30.8%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Kyle Stowers ✶ vs Proxy +330 0.230 · 92.0 · 12.5% 30.8% 23.5% F B O C 58

· — Heriberto Hernández vs Proxy — 0.239 · 92.2 · 13.1% 0.0% 25.3% F B O C 52

· — Owen Caissie vs Proxy +400 0.220 · 91.8 · 16.3% 0.0% 17.8% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Alcantara Edge +400 0.194 · 91.8 · 7.7% 21.4% 19.0% F B O D 46

· NYM Marcus Semien vs Alcantara — 0.139 · 86.6 · 6.6% 20.0% 14.1% F B O D 39

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Alcantara +425 0.184 · 90.2 · 9.8% 0.0% 16.6% F B O D 42

· — Javier Sanoja vs Proxy +850 0.125 · 86.9 · 1.6% 10.0% 6.3% F B O D 28

· — Liam Hicks vs Proxy +625 0.152 · 85.3 · 3.8% 7.7% 8.5% F B O D 35

· NYM Brett Baty vs Alcantara Edge +575 0.104 · 89.5 · 7.0% 7.7% 8.5% F B O D 34

· — Jakob Marsee vs Proxy +700 0.102 · 86.9 · 3.7% 9.1% 6.5% F B O D 29

· — Otto Lopez COOL vs Proxy +700 0.158 · 89.3 · 6.7% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 37

· NYM A.J. Ewing COOL vs Alcantara Edge +700 0.140 · — · 6.5% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 32

· NYM Carson Benge vs Alcantara Edge +575 0.131 · 89.3 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 35

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Alcantara +625 0.110 · 89.2 · 5.9% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 32

· — Xavier Edwards COOL vs Proxy +950 0.109 · 86.9 · 4.0% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 59.3% ← leak OFF 20.5% BRK 20.1% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

104

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.4% 8.1% 8.7% 10.3% D 46 +400

143

Francisco Alvarez R

17.2% 15.8% 15.9% 16.6% D 42 +425

161

Marcus Semien R

10.4% 8.3% 2.4% 7.6% D 39 —

186

Carson Benge L Edge

7.3% 5.9% 9.5% 7.6% D 35 +575

189

Brett Baty L Edge

7.7% 4.3% 12.5% 8.0% D 34 +575

199

A.J. Ewing L Edge

8.7% 0.0% 8.9% 7.2% D 32 +700

202

Bo Bichette R

4.3% 0.0% 11.5% 6.1% D 32 +625

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.3% usage) carries Alcantara's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for NYM Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lindor Semien Stowers

Legend

attack side — vs Alcantara fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kyle Stowers +330 · 58

Francisco Lindor +400 · 46

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 1:40p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 15 mph out 85°F open

+13

↑

15 mph · out

83°F

1:40p · peak

+13

↑

15 mph · out

83°F

2:40p

+11

↑

14 mph · out

83°F

3:40p

+10

↑

13 mph · out

82°F

4:40p

+10

↑

13 mph · out

81°F

5:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.69× 85°F, wind 15 mph S (out) — modifier: +8 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sandy Alcantara · RHP 1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.07 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor 46 D +400 WARM 104 0.194 91.8 7.7% 16.2%vs RHP 394 11.4% 21.4% 19.0% 37

2 Francisco Alvarez 42 D +425 · 143 0.184 90.2 9.8% 27.0%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 16.6% 15

3 Marcus Semien 39 D — WARM 161 0.139 86.6 6.6% 17.5%vs RHP 391 11.2% 20.0% 14.1% 25

4 Carson Benge 35 D +575 · 186 0.131 89.3 6.6% 12.9%vs RHP 399 8.2% 0.0% 7.3% 29

5 Brett Baty 34 D +575 · 189 0.104 89.5 7.0% 11.3%vs RHP 395 5.8% 7.7% 8.5% 17

6 A.J. Ewing 32 D +700 COOL 199 0.140 — 6.5% 14.7%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 37

7 Bo Bichette 32 D +625 COOL 202 0.110 89.2 5.9% 9.5%vs RHP 385 8.3% 0.0% 7.0% 43

vs NYM Bullpen Proxy 1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers ✶ 58 C +330 · 52 0.230 92.0 12.5% 19.5% 396 14.6% 30.8% 23.5% 33

2 Owen Caissie 56 C +400 · 57 0.220 91.8 16.3% 25.0% 398 15.9% 0.0% 17.8% 0

3 Heriberto Hernández 52 C — · 87 0.239 92.2 13.1% 22.2% 411 0.0% 0.0% 25.3% 31

4 Otto Lopez 37 D +700 COOL 192 0.158 89.3 6.7% 9.5% 402 7.5% 0.0% 8.3% 41

5 Liam Hicks 35 D +625 · 205 0.152 85.3 3.8% 13.0% 378 14.0% 7.7% 8.5% 39

6 Jakob Marsee 29 D +700 · 216 0.102 86.9 3.7% 6.1% 380 6.8% 9.1% 6.5% 22

7 Xavier Edwards 28 D +950 COOL 217 0.109 86.9 4.0% 6.4% 396 4.6% 0.0% 6.6% 37

8 Javier Sanoja 28 D +850 WARM 218 0.125 86.9 1.6% 4.0% 385 5.6% 10.0% 6.3% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — tonight's full board is on us Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.