TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ CHC

Suppressed air · 0.53×

NYY @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 2:20p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 15 mph in 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

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1:20p

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2:20p

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3:20p

-11 ↑

4:20p

-10 ↑

5:20p

conditions build late — the 5:20p window peaks -10

Best of game Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 27 · vs Cole ⟷ Ben Rice conv 21 · vs Rea → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Gerrit Cole RHP · NYY

leak 84

1.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +475 C+ ●●●●○

2 Seiya Suzuki +625 C ●●●●○

3 Alex Bregman +850 D ●●○○○

FADE Colin Rea RHP · CHC

leak 32

1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.38 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ben Rice +400 B ●●●○○

2 Trent Grisham +500 C ●●○○○

3 Paul Goldschmidt +575 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 16.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 20.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong vs Cole Edge +475 0.253 · 90.2 · 10.4% 23.1% 31.8% F B O C+ 64

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Cole +625 0.204 · 88.8 · 9.4% 25.0% 25.9% F B O C 56

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Rea Edge +400 0.298 · 92.2 · 12.6% 20.0% 22.1% F B O B 72

· NYY Trent Grisham COOL vs Rea Edge +500 0.165 · 90.8 · 10.0% 14.3% 10.4% F B O C 52

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Rea +575 0.208 · 86.4 · 10.4% 7.7% 15.6% F B O C 56

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Cole Edge +625 0.201 · 89.5 · 10.5% 7.7% 15.3% F B O C 55

· CHC Michael Conforto COOL vs Cole Edge — 0.225 · 91.7 · 10.3% 0.0% 19.9% F B O C 52

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon vs Rea Edge +700 0.156 · 91.4 · 10.1% 0.0% 10.4% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Cole +850 0.132 · 87.8 · 6.3% 16.7% 9.1% F B O D 41

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Cole — 0.092 · 86.0 · 2.7% 16.7% 7.9% F B O D 32

· NYY Austin Wells vs Rea Edge +750 0.111 · 89.2 · 8.5% 10.0% 10.1% F B O D 45

· CHC Michael Busch COOL vs Cole Edge +700 0.147 · 88.5 · 9.3% 7.7% 10.1% F B O D 47

· CHC Dansby Swanson COOL vs Cole +850 0.185 · 89.4 · 8.2% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 48

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs Rea +950 0.136 · 83.6 · 5.9% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 39

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Cole +950 0.110 · 87.8 · 7.3% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 56.2% ← leak BRK 25.6% OFF 18.2% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Ben Rice L Edge

19.0% 12.6% 12.5% 16.0% B 72 +400

Neutral · 3

Paul Goldschmidt R

14.4% 4.8% 9.7% 10.8% C 56 +575

Trent Grisham L Edge

11.0% 8.9% 5.6% 9.9% C 52 +500

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

13.0% 4.8% 9.1% 10.3% C 50 +700

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

118

Austin Wells L Edge

8.4% 9.4% 0.0% 7.3% D 45 +750

160

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 39 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.2% usage) carries Rea's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.8% ← leak BRK 33.3% OFF 15.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

9.9% 13.3% 14.5% 11.8% C+ 64 +475

Seiya Suzuki R

10.4% 8.7% 10.0% 9.7% C 56 +625

Ian Happ S Edge

15.2% 16.7% 1.5% 12.0% C 55 +625

Michael Conforto L Edge

9.9% 18.8% 13.6% 11.9% C 52 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Dansby Swanson R

6.7% 7.0% 13.3% 7.5% D 48 +850

101

Michael Busch L Edge

12.5% 4.5% 2.4% 9.4% D 47 +700

152

Alex Bregman R

3.1% 6.5% 6.7% 4.3% D 41 +850

164

Carson Kelly R

7.3% 3.0% 5.9% 5.8% D 39 +950

204

Nico Hoerner R

1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.8% usage) carries Cole's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Crow-Armstrong Suzuki

Legend

attack side — vs Cole fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Pete Crow-Armstrong +475 · 64

Seiya Suzuki +625 · 56

Ben Rice +400 · 72

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 1:20p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 15 mph in 77°F open

-11

↑

15 mph · in

77°F

1:20p

-11

↑

16 mph · in

78°F

2:20p

-11

↑

16 mph · in

79°F

3:20p

-11

↑

16 mph · in

79°F

4:20p

-10

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15 mph · in

78°F

5:20p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.53× 77°F, wind 15 mph N (in) — modifier: -5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Colin Rea · RHP 1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.38 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 72 B +400 · 3 0.298 92.2 12.6% 33.8%vs RHP 390 26.0% 20.0% 22.1% 34

2 Paul Goldschmidt 56 C +575 COOL 42 0.208 86.4 10.4% 18.9%vs RHP 390 16.2% 7.7% 15.6% 35

3 Trent Grisham 52 C +500 COOL 63 0.165 90.8 10.0% 16.4%vs RHP 390 10.6% 14.3% 10.4% 41

4 Ryan Mcmahon 50 C +700 WARM 70 0.156 91.4 10.1% 20.9%vs RHP 384 16.7% 0.0% 10.4% 21

5 Austin Wells 45 D +750 WARM 118 0.111 89.2 8.5% 14.3%vs RHP 386 9.5% 10.0% 10.1% 16

6 Jose Caballero 39 D +950 COOL 160 0.136 83.6 5.9% 17.6%vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 26

vs Gerrit Cole · RHP 1.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 64 C+ +475 WARM 15 0.253 90.2 10.4% 23.8%vs RHP 393 19.8% 23.1% 31.8% 34

2 Seiya Suzuki 56 C +625 · 38 0.204 88.8 9.4% 23.1%vs RHP 407 15.7% 25.0% 25.9% 29

3 Ian Happ 55 C +625 COOL 50 0.201 89.5 10.5% 23.1%vs RHP 404 17.3% 7.7% 15.3% 33

4 Michael Conforto 52 C — COOL 61 0.225 91.7 10.3% 15.9%vs RHP 399 7.9% 0.0% 19.9% 16

5 Dansby Swanson 48 D +850 COOL 92 0.185 89.4 8.2% 17.2%vs RHP 403 11.9% 0.0% 13.0% 32

6 Michael Busch 47 D +700 COOL 101 0.147 88.5 9.3% 14.7%vs RHP 403 12.5% 7.7% 10.1% 47

7 Alex Bregman 41 D +850 · 152 0.132 87.8 6.3% 15.9%vs RHP 389 9.3% 16.7% 9.1% 41

8 Carson Kelly 39 D +950 COOL 164 0.110 87.8 7.3% 7.1%vs RHP 416 6.5% 0.0% 7.9% 27

9 Nico Hoerner 32 D — WARM 204 0.092 86.0 2.7% 6.8%vs RHP 383 5.5% 16.7% 7.9% 45

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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