TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ CLE

Neutral air · 1.00×

AZ @ CLE

Progressive Field · 1:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.91× Wind 6 mph out 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

1:40p

+4 ↑

2:40p

+1 ↑

3:40p

-4 ↑

4:40p

-9 ↑

5:40p

best window is early — 1:40p at +5

Best of game Kyle Manzardo conv 32 · vs Kelly ⟷ Nolan Arenado conv 25 · vs Williams → edge: Kyle Manzardo

ATTACK Merrill Kelly RHP · AZ

leak 93

1.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.04 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Manzardo +400 C ●●●●●

2 Rhys Hoskins — C ●●●●○

3 Travis Bazzana +625 D ●○○○○

FADE Gavin Williams RHP · CLE

leak 87

1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.89 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nolan Arenado +575 D ●●●●○

2 Geraldo Perdomo +950 D ●●●○○

3 Corbin Carroll +350 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Manzardo: 11.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 44.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CLE Kyle Manzardo ✶ HOT vs Kelly Edge +400 0.164 · 89.5 · 12.2% 44.4% 18.9% F B O C 55

· CLE Rhys Hoskins HOT vs Kelly — 0.192 · 88.8 · 12.8% 28.6% 23.0% F B O C 56

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Williams Edge +350 0.229 · 91.8 · 11.6% 15.4% 14.7% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Williams +575 0.174 · 85.1 · 8.7% 27.3% 22.4% F B O D 45

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo vs Williams Edge +950 0.123 · 87.1 · 5.8% 23.1% 9.6% F B O D 34

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Williams Edge +400 0.197 · 90.5 · 10.6% 16.7% 11.7% F B O D 48

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Williams +750 0.145 · 89.7 · 9.2% 15.4% 10.5% F B O D 40

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Kelly Edge +625 0.152 · 88.2 · 7.6% 7.1% 10.1% F B O D 43

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Kelly Edge +750 0.127 · 86.5 · 6.3% 7.1% 7.9% F B O D 38

· CLE Angel Martinez COOL vs Kelly Edge — 0.189 · 87.6 · 9.7% 0.0% 13.5% F B O D 44

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Kelly Edge +475 0.158 · 91.0 · 9.1% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 44

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Kelly Edge +425 0.159 · 89.3 · 8.6% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 41

· AZ Adrian Del Castillo COOL vs Williams Edge +625 0.122 · 88.5 · 8.6% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 35

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs Williams Edge — 0.134 · 87.5 · 5.9% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 32

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Kelly Edge — 0.060 · 83.6 · 2.0% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.0% BRK 49.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Corbin Carroll L Edge

10.6% 14.9% 12.2% C 52 +350

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Ketel Marte S Edge

14.3% 7.5% 10.3% D 48 +400

120

Nolan Arenado R

10.3% 2.3% 7.1% D 45 +575

155

Gabriel Moreno R

7.5% 7.8% 7.8% D 40 +750

184

Adrian Del Castillo L Edge

11.1% 0.0% 6.7% D 35 +625

191

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

3.7% 1.8% 3.1% D 34 +950

201

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.3% 1.7% 3.2% D 32 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Williams's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.4% ← leak OFF 26.8% BRK 21.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Rhys Hoskins R

10.5% 13.3% 15.4% 12.1% C 56 —

Kyle Manzardo L Edge

12.6% 8.1% 13.0% 11.9% C 55 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

123

Angel Martinez S Edge

5.8% 3.6% 15.2% 7.4% D 44 —

126

Chase Delauter L Edge

9.1% 1.7% 5.2% 6.6% D 44 +475

138

Travis Bazzana L Edge

4.3% 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% D 43 +625

147

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 41 +425

173

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.4% 1.2% 5.1% 3.1% D 38 +750

219

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 24 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.4% usage) carries Kelly's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Carroll Marte Arenado Perdomo Hoskins Manzardo

Legend

attack side — vs Kelly fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Kyle Manzardo +400 · 55

Rhys Hoskins — · 56

Nolan Arenado +575 · 45

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 1:40p · roof open

Park 0.91× Wind 6 mph out 81°F open

↑

7 mph · out

77°F

1:40p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

78°F

2:40p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

79°F

3:40p

-4

↑

10 mph · cross

79°F

4:40p

-9

↑

11 mph · cross

79°F

5:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.00× 81°F, wind 6 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Gavin Williams · RHP 1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.89 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 52 C +350 WARM 64 0.229 91.8 11.6% 17.6%vs RHP 401 14.3% 15.4% 14.7% 39

2 Ketel Marte 48 D +400 COOL 88 0.197 90.5 10.6% 14.5%vs RHP 412 15.2% 16.7% 11.7% 42

3 Nolan Arenado 45 D +575 · 120 0.174 85.1 8.7% 19.2%vs RHP 391 13.9% 27.3% 22.4% 35

4 Gabriel Moreno 40 D +750 · 155 0.145 89.7 9.2% 14.9%vs RHP 400 9.1% 15.4% 10.5% 48

5 Adrian Del Castillo 35 D +625 COOL 184 0.122 88.5 8.6% 16.7%vs RHP 400 7.4% 0.0% 8.0% 16

6 Geraldo Perdomo 34 D +950 WARM 191 0.123 87.1 5.8% 11.3%vs RHP 382 8.3% 23.1% 9.6% 47

7 Ildemaro Vargas 32 D — WARM 201 0.134 87.5 5.9% 9.4%vs RHP 399 5.1% 0.0% 7.4% 33

vs Merrill Kelly · RHP 1.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.04 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins 56 C — HOT 46 0.192 88.8 12.8% 25.0%vs RHP 386 14.1% 28.6% 23.0% 13

2 Kyle Manzardo ✶ 55 C +400 HOT 49 0.164 89.5 12.2% 22.0%vs RHP 386 13.5% 44.4% 18.9% 21

3 Angel Martinez 44 D — COOL 123 0.189 87.6 9.7% 26.5%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 18

4 Chase Delauter 44 D +475 · 126 0.158 91.0 9.1% 25.0%vs RHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 37

5 Travis Bazzana 43 D +625 · 138 0.152 88.2 7.6% 19.6%vs RHP 396 11.8% 7.1% 10.1% 36

6 Jose Ramirez 41 D +425 COOL 147 0.159 89.3 8.6% 11.3%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 35

7 Brayan Rocchio 38 D +750 · 173 0.127 86.5 6.3% 12.5%vs RHP 386 7.6% 7.1% 7.9% 42

8 Steven Kwan 24 D — COOL 219 0.060 83.6 2.0% 1.7%vs RHP 381 1.0% 0.0% 6.5% 43

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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